GW26 Transfer Market: Arsenal Fever, Bruno’s Boom, and the Great Saka Sell-Off
## Introduction Gameweek 26’s transfer market has a clear story: **managers are piling into Arsenal**, backing **Bruno Fernandes’ elite output**, and chasing **João Pedro’s red-hot form**—while mass-selling a mix of **injured flags** and **cooling assets**. But are these moves sharp, or classic FPL knee-jerks? --- ## The Big Picture: Who’s Being Bought vs Sold? ### Most Transferred IN (Top 8) - **Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal)** — 402,536 in - **Martín Zubimendi (Arsenal)** — 342,785 in - **Declan Rice (Arsenal)** — 330,225 in - **Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd)** — 310,740 in - **João Pedro (Chelsea)** — 288,746 in - **Jurriën Timber (Arsenal)** — 252,638 in - **Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd)** — 237,944 in - **Gabriel (Arsenal)** — 224,346 in ### Most Transferred OUT (Top 8) - **Harry Wilson (Fulham)** — 447,682 out - **Igor Thiago (Brentford)** — 319,263 out - **Bukayo Saka (Arsenal, status: d)** — 233,811 out - **Reece James (Chelsea, status: d)** — 201,852 out - **Phil Foden (Man City)** — 195,831 out - **Antoine Semenyo (Man City)** — 155,582 out - **James Tarkowski (Everton)** — 152,950 out - **Hugo Ekitiké (Liverpool)** — 149,346 out **Trend read:** This is a **form + availability** market. The two biggest “outs” with clear justification are **Saka (d)** and **Reece James (d)**. The rest look more like performance-chasing and impatience. --- ## The “IN” Crowd: Smart Buys or Bandwagons? ### Key attacking/creative targets (Form, xGI, ICT) | Player | Team | Cost | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Points | PPG | Selected by % | Transfers In | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Bruno Fernandes** | Man Utd | 9.8 | **8.8** | **14.60** | **224.7** | 141 | **6.4** | 36.3 | 310,740 | | **João Pedro** | Chelsea | 7.6 | **9.5** | 9.25 | 145.0 | 122 | 4.9 | **44.2** | 288,746 | | **Bryan Mbeumo** | Man Utd | 8.6 | 7.2 | 10.67 | 168.0 | 103 | 5.2 | 22.2 | 237,944 | | **Declan Rice** | Arsenal | 7.5 | 3.0 | 8.17 | 164.5 | 134 | 5.6 | 35.4 | 330,225 | | **Viktor Gyökeres** | Arsenal | 8.8 | 5.2 | 8.79 | 98.0 | 75 | 3.3 | 13.2 | **402,536** | | **Martín Zubimendi** | Arsenal | 5.3 | 6.0 | 4.08 | 101.9 | 101 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 342,785 | #### Verdicts - **Bruno Fernandes: Smart, not a knee-jerk** - The profile screams “premium worth paying for”: **xGI 14.60** and a monster **ICT 224.7** with **6.4 PPG**. - This looks like managers correcting an under-ownership problem rather than chasing a single haul. - **João Pedro: Form-chasing, but supported by numbers** - **Form 9.5** is the headline, but **xGI 9.25** and **23 bonus** suggest it’s not pure hype. - At **7.6**, he’s priced like a mid-tier forward with genuine upside—still, the scale of buying can be a sign of a bandwagon. - **Mbeumo: Sensible mid-price momentum** - **xGI 10.67** and **Form 7.2** is a strong combo. - Notably lower ownership (**22.2%**) than the most popular picks, so this could be a calculated move rather than herd behavior. - **Rice: A “safe points” buy, but not explosive on current form** - **PPG 5.6** and **xGI 8.17** are strong, but **Form 3.0** suggests managers may be buying the season-long reliability rather than recent output. - This is more “structure” than “spike.” - **Gyökeres: The biggest bandwagon risk** - He’s the **#1 transfer in** (402k+), but his **PPG is only 3.3** and **ICT 98.0** is the lowest among the main attacking buys. - The underlying **xGI 8.79** is decent, yet the market enthusiasm looks ahead of the actual FPL returns so far. - **Zubimendi: Budget enabler with respectable form** - **Form 6.0** and **4.0 PPG** at **5.3** is tidy. - Not a ceiling pick, but could be a rational “make the funds work” transfer. --- ## Arsenal Defensive Double-Down: Timber + Gabriel | Player | Cost | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Points | PPG | Bonus | Selected by % | Transfers In | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Gabriel** | 7.1 | **5.8** | 2.56 | 79.1 | **135** | **7.1** | **18** | **42.8** | 224,346 | | **Timber** | 6.4 | 4.2 | **5.41** | **104.0** | 121 | 5.0 | 7 | 31.0 | 252,638 | **Read:** This looks **mostly smart**. - **Gabriel** is delivering elite defender value: **7.1 PPG** with **18 bonus**. - **Timber** has surprisingly strong attacking involvement for a defender (**xGI 5.41**, higher than Gabriel’s), though his **bonus (7)** and **PPG (5.0)** lag. **Potential knee-jerk angle:** doubling/tripling Arsenal can become a herd move—great when it hits, painful when it doesn’t. But based on points and bonus, **Gabriel especially looks justified**. --- ## The “OUT” Crowd: Rational Sells vs Panic Dumps ### The flagged exits (mostly rational) | Player | Team | Status | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Transfers Out | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Bukayo Saka** | Arsenal | **d** | 0.8 | **10.69** | 161.4 | 233,811 | | **Reece James** | Chelsea | **d** | 3.5 | 3.16 | 89.7 | 201,852 | - **Saka out** is understandable due to status (**d**) and **Form 0.8**, even though his **xGI 10.69** is excellent. This is a classic case of: *great asset, wrong week.* - **Reece James out** is also logical: flagged (**d**) and not enough attacking output to justify holding through uncertainty. ### The big non-flagged sales (more knee-jerk) | Player | Team | Cost | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Points | PPG | Transfers Out | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Harry Wilson** | Fulham | 6.0 | 4.0 | 7.62 | 137.0 | 118 | 4.9 | **447,682** | | **Igor Thiago** | Brentford | 7.0 | 2.8 | **14.88** | 175.5 | 131 | 5.2 | 319,263 | | **Phil Foden** | Man City | 8.2 | 0.8 | 8.48 | 150.8 | 103 | 4.7 | 195,831 | | **Antoine Semenyo** | Man City | 7.9 | 4.8 | 9.88 | 176.5 | 139 | 5.8 | 155,582 | | **Hugo Ekitiké** | Liverpool | 8.9 | 4.5 | 9.95 | 126.4 | 102 | 4.6 | 149,346 | | **James Tarkowski** | Everton | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.76 | 100.3 | 116 | 4.6 | 152,950 | #### Verdicts - **Harry Wilson (447k out): likely a herd move** - His **Form 4.0** isn’t disastrous, and **xGI 7.62** with **4.9 PPG** is perfectly playable at **6.0**. - This looks like managers funding the popular buys rather than reacting to a collapse. - **Igor Thiago: the numbers say “don’t panic”** - **xGI 14.88** and **ICT 175.5** are elite, even if **Form 2.8** is dragging sentiment. - Selling a forward with that underlying output can easily be a **knee-jerk**—unless managers are responding to something not shown here. - **Foden: form-driven exit** - **Form 0.8** explains the sales, but **xGI 8.48** and **ICT 150.8** suggest there’s still a strong base. - This is a classic “sell low” risk. - **Semenyo: surprising sell given the season output** - **139 points**, **5.8 PPG**, **xGI 9.88**, **ICT 176.5**—this is not a profile that screams urgent sale. - Likely a **reallocation** to Bruno/João Pedro/Arsenal rather than a data-backed downgrade. - **Ekitiké: steady, not spectacular—sale is understandable but not mandatory** - **xGI 9.95** is solid, **Form 4.5** is fine. This feels like a “make room” transfer. - **Tarkowski: budget defender churn** - **4.6 PPG** is respectable. This looks like managers chasing Arsenal defensive points/bonus instead. --- ## Smart Trend vs Knee-Jerk: Quick Summary ### **Smart / Data-supported** - **Bruno Fernandes IN** (elite **xGI 14.60**, **ICT 224.7**, **6.4 PPG**) - **Gabriel IN** (defender with **7.1 PPG** and **18 bonus**) - **Saka OUT** and **Reece James OUT** (both **status: d**) ### **Borderline (could be right, but watch the bandwagon effect)** - **João Pedro IN** (huge **Form 9.5**, backed by **xGI 9.25**) - **Mbeumo IN** (strong **xGI 10.67**, good form) - **Timber IN** (good **xGI 5.41**, but less bonus/PPG than Gabriel) ### **Most knee-jerk / potentially regretful** - **Gyökeres IN at massive volume** (top transfer in despite **3.3 PPG** and modest **ICT 98.0**) - **Igor Thiago OUT** (selling with **xGI 14.88** is a classic “form over fundamentals” move) - **Semenyo OUT** (strong season-long output: **5.8 PPG**, **xGI 9.88**, **ICT 176.5**) --- ## Conclusion GW26’s market is heavily shaped by **availability and recent form**, with a strong lean into **Arsenal assets** and a clear vote of confidence in **Bruno Fernandes** as the standout premium. The smartest managers will separate **genuine trend shifts** (Bruno, Gabriel, injury exits) from **crowd momentum** (the Gyökeres surge, and the mass dumping of high-xGI players like Igor Thiago). In a week like this, the edge often comes from resisting the urge to sell strong underlying numbers just because the crowd is moving.
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