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Elite analysis, data-driven transfers, and the ultimate captaincy guide for your Fantasy Premier League journey.

Underlying Stats2026-01-04

GW21 Scout’s Selection: The Data-Driven Optimal 11 Built on Form, Value & ICT

## Introduction Gameweek 21 is the point of the season where “eye test” narratives start to wobble under the weight of minutes, value, and repeatable underlying numbers. Using only the data below, here’s the **optimal XI on paper**—prioritising **total points**, **value (value_season)**, **form**, **minutes security**, and **attacking/overall involvement (ICT + xG/xA)**. > **Formation:** 3-4-3 --- ## Goalkeeper (1) ### **Robin Roefs (£4.9) — The value-first No.1** Roefs tops the goalkeeper slate for a reason: **90 points** at just **£4.9** is elite efficiency. - **Total points:** 90 (best of the listed GKs) - **Clean sheets:** 7 - **Minutes:** 1710 (reliable starter) - **Value:** **18.4** (standout) - **Form:** 4.5 **Why he’s in:** This is classic “optimal XI” logic—Roefs delivers premium-level output for a mid-price tag, freeing funds for explosive attackers. --- ## Defenders (3) ### **Jurriën Timber (£6.4) — The upside defender** Timber’s profile screams attacking potential and involvement. - **Total points:** 96 - **Clean sheets:** 8 - **Assists:** 4 - **ICT Index:** **94.5** (best among listed defenders) - **xG:** **4.06** (huge for a defender) **Why he’s in:** The combination of **clean sheets + elite attacking data** makes Timber the high-ceiling pick. ### **Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (£6.6) — Points machine with set-piece threat** Gabriel brings the perfect mix of defensive baseline and goal threat. - **Total points:** **106** (best among listed defenders) - **Goals/Assists:** 3G / 2A - **Value:** 16.1 - **xG/xA:** 1.41 / 0.71 **Why he’s in:** He’s the top scorer in the defensive pool and still carries meaningful attacking upside. ### **Marc Guéhi (£5.3) — The value king at the back** Guéhi is the defender pick that balances budget with serious output. - **Total points:** 97 - **Goals/Assists:** 2G / 4A - **Value:** **18.3** (best among listed defenders) - **ICT Index:** 78.5 - **xG/xA:** 1.80 / 1.47 **Why he’s in:** When a defender combines **price, creativity, and value** like this, you don’t overthink it. --- ## Midfielders (4) ### **Declan Rice (£7.1) — The do-it-all midfielder** Rice leads the midfield group on points with strong creativity and consistent returns. - **Total points:** **119** (best among listed mids) - **Goals/Assists:** 4G / 7A - **Form:** **6.8** (best among listed mids) - **ICT Index:** 127.4 - **xG/xA:** 2.60 / 3.63 **Why he’s in:** This is the rare midfielder who brings **form + creativity + points** in one package. ### **Antoine Semenyo (£7.7) — The volume shooter you build around** Semenyo’s underlying threat is monstrous, and the output matches it. - **Total points:** 114 - **Goals/Assists:** 9G / 5A - **Threat:** **599.0** (massive) - **ICT Index:** **146.3** - **xG:** **6.50** **Why he’s in:** For GW21, this is the archetype you want—**high threat + proven returns**. ### **Morgan Rogers (£7.6) — Form pick with strong minutes** Rogers blends dependable minutes with a hot streak. - **Total points:** 98 - **Form:** **6.5** - **Minutes:** **1777** (excellent security) - **Goals/Assists:** 7G / 4A **Why he’s in:** He’s a GW21-ready pick—**nailed minutes plus current form**. ### **Phil Foden (£8.9) — Premium ceiling without the premium price** Foden adds explosiveness and clean sheet points from midfield. - **Total points:** 96 - **Goals/Assists:** 7G / 2A - **Clean sheets:** 9 - **ICT Index:** 134.9 - **xG/xA:** 4.75 / 3.07 **Why he’s in:** Strong underlying numbers plus goal threat—perfect for an “optimal XI” build. > **Note:** Bruno Fernandes is data-elite (ICT **167.2**, xG **7.01**, xA **4.13**) but carries a **25% chance of playing** (hamstring). For a true GW21 optimal XI, availability matters. --- ## Forwards (3) ### **Erling Haaland (£15.1) — The non-negotiable captaincy cornerstone** Haaland isn’t just the best forward here—he’s the best asset in the entire dataset. - **Total points:** **155** (best overall) - **Goals/Assists:** **19G / 4A** - **Threat:** **933.0** - **ICT Index:** **185.5** - **xG:** **16.53** **Why he’s in:** The GW21 optimal XI starts with Haaland and works backwards. ### **Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues (£6.9) — Value striker with real xG** A classic mid-price forward who’s converting strong underlying numbers. - **Total points:** 91 - **Goals:** 11 - **xG:** 9.39 - **Minutes:** 1581 - **Value:** 13.2 **Why he’s in:** Reliable minutes + double-digit goals at this price is exactly what optimised squads need. ### **Jarrod Bowen (£7.7) — The differential forward with strong threat** Bowen’s selection is low, but the data says he’s firmly in the conversation. - **Total points:** 88 - **Threat:** **544.0** - **Minutes:** **1800** (as nailed as it gets) - **Form:** 5.2 **Why he’s in:** High-minutes attackers with strong threat and low ownership are the kind that swing gameweeks. --- ## GW21 Optimal XI (3-4-3) **GK:** Robin Roefs **DEF:** Gabriel • Guéhi • Timber **MID:** Rice • Semenyo • Rogers • Foden **FWD:** Haaland • Igor Thiago • Bowen --- ## Conclusion This GW21 Scout’s Selection is built to be ruthless: **high points**, **high minutes**, and **repeatable involvement** through form, value, ICT, and xG/xA. It’s a squad that doesn’t just chase last week’s haul—it’s designed to keep producing. If you’re optimising for Gameweek 21, start with the spine—**Roefs for value, Timber/Gabriel/Guéhi for balanced upside, Rice + Semenyo for midfield production, and Haaland as the ceiling**—then let the minutes monsters (Rogers, Bowen) keep the floor steady.

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GWGameweek 21
FPL Admin
Transfers2026-01-04

GW21 Transfer Market: Arsenal’s Backline Boom — Smart Value or Pure Knee-Jerk?

## Introduction The Gameweek 21 transfer market is telling a very specific story: **FPL managers are piling into Arsenal defensive assets**. From the steady security of David Raya to the attacking pull of Jurriën Timber, the interest is clear. Using the data provided, here’s a focused report on **who’s being brought in and shipped out**, and whether these moves look **calculated** or **knee-jerk**. --- ## Most Transferred IN (GW21) From the provided transfer list, the standout “Transferred IN” targets are: ### **1) David Raya Martín (£6.0) — Goalkeeper** - **Total points:** 80 - **Clean sheets:** 9 - **Minutes:** 1800 - **Selected by:** 34.8% - **Form:** 2.7 - **Value (pts/£):** 13.3 **Verdict: Smart, but not explosive.** - This is the definition of a “set-and-forget” style move: **1800 minutes** signals complete security, and **9 clean sheets** makes the floor very stable. - The only concern is upside: with **0.04 expected assists** and essentially no attacking threat, Raya is mostly a clean-sheet and save-point bet. **Buy if:** you want a reliable starter with proven clean-sheet output. --- ### **2) Jurriën Timber (£6.4) — Defender** - **Total points:** 96 - **Goals/Assists:** 2 / 4 - **Clean sheets:** 8 - **Minutes:** 1549 - **Selected by:** 28.1% - **Form:** 3.5 - **ICT Index:** 94.5 - **xG/xA:** 4.06 / 0.83 **Verdict: Smart, with clear upside.** - Timber looks like the “complete” FPL defender in this data set: strong baseline (minutes + clean sheets) plus serious attacking indicators. - An **xG of 4.06** is massive for a defender, and he’s already backed it up with **2 goals and 4 assists**. **This doesn’t read like a knee-jerk**—it reads like managers responding to elite underlying numbers and proven returns. --- ### **3) Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (£6.6) — Defender** - **Total points:** 106 - **Goals/Assists:** 3 / 2 - **Clean sheets:** 8 - **Minutes:** 1175 - **Form:** 4.2 - **Value (pts/£):** 16.1 - **Selected by:** 24.0% - **Cost change event:** +1 **Verdict: Smart…and possibly still undervalued.** - Gabriel’s **value_season of 16.1** is the best among the core Arsenal defensive options listed. - He’s combining clean sheets with direct attacking output (**3 goals**), and his **form (4.2)** suggests this isn’t just ancient history points. The only mild flag is minutes (1175) being lower than some peers, but the returns per appearance are clearly driving transfers. --- ### **4) William Saliba (£5.9) — Defender** - **Total points:** 54 - **Clean sheets:** 6 - **Minutes:** 1264 - **Form:** 2.2 - **Threat:** 22.0 - **xG/xA:** 0.29 / 0.29 **Verdict: Potentially knee-jerk if bought for attacking returns.** - Saliba looks like the “safe” pick on price and minutes, but the attacking data here is minimal. - If managers are buying him expecting goals/assists, the numbers suggest that’s optimistic. **More of a ‘structure’ transfer**—good for steady clean-sheet hunting, not chasing hauls. --- ### **5) Riccardo Calafiori (£5.7) — Defender** - **Total points:** 77 - **Goals/Assists:** 1 / 2 - **Clean sheets:** 9 - **Status:** **i** (injured) - **News:** *Muscle injury - Unknown return date* - **Threat:** 219.0 - **xG:** 2.49 **Verdict: High risk, very knee-jerk if transferred in now.** - The underlying attacking pull is obvious (big **threat** and **xG 2.49**), but the key detail is unavoidable: **injured with an unknown return date**. - Buying an injured defender—without clarity—is classic “I don’t want to miss out” behaviour. Unless a manager has a very specific bench plan, this looks more reactive than strategic. --- ## Most Transferred OUT (GW21) Based strictly on the transfer lists provided, the “Transferred OUT” names match the “Transferred IN” names. That means the market is currently showing **rotation/swap behaviour within the same pool of Arsenal defensive assets**, rather than a clear shift away from them. ### Key observation - **Raya, Timber, Gabriel, Saliba, and Calafiori** appear in both lists. - This suggests managers are: - **restructuring** between Arsenal defenders based on price/role, - reacting to **form and points value**, and - most notably, responding to **Calafiori’s injury status** by moving funds elsewhere. ### Is this smart or knee-jerk? - **Smart transfers out:** - Moving away from **Calafiori (injured, unknown return)** is generally the rational play. - **Potential knee-jerk transfers out:** - Selling premium-performing assets like **Gabriel (106 points, 16.1 value)** or **Timber (96 points, elite xG/ICT)** could be reactionary *unless* it’s funding a broader squad change. --- ## Quick Hits: Best GW21 Buys (From This Data) - **Best all-round pick:** **Jurriën Timber** (elite attacking indicators + strong points) - **Best value pick:** **Gabriel** (106 points, **16.1 value_season**, form 4.2) - **Safest minutes pick:** **Raya** (1800 minutes) - **Avoid (for now):** **Calafiori** (injured, unknown return date) --- ## Conclusion The Gameweek 21 transfer market—based on this dataset—isn’t about chasing random punts. It’s a clear **Arsenal defensive reshuffle**, with managers gravitating toward **proven points (Gabriel, Timber)** and **security (Raya)**. The smart money is on transfers that follow the fundamentals in the data: **minutes, clean sheets, value, and underlying threat**. The most obvious knee-jerk move is bringing in an injured Calafiori purely because his threat numbers look exciting. If you’re making a GW21 defensive move, the numbers strongly support **Timber and Gabriel** as the most justified transfers—while **Calafiori** is the trap to avoid.

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GWGameweek 21
FPL Admin
News2026-01-03

Welcome to the Future of FPL: AI-Powered Insights

# Welcome to the FPL Command Center Fantasy Premier League has changed. The days of relying solely on "the eye test" and basic spreadsheets are behind us. To truly stay ahead of the millions of managers worldwide, you need an edge that combines raw data with advanced intelligence. That’s why we built **FPL BLOG**. ### What makes us different? Our platform isn't just another opinion piece. It is a data-driven ecosystem designed to extract the most critical insights from the official FPL API using state-of-the-art AI. - **Deep Data Extraction**: We pull real-time stats, fixture difficulties, and ownership metrics directly from the source. - **AI-Powered Scouting**: Our AI Studio analyzes ICT indices, xG/xA underperformance, and market shifts to give you recommendations that others miss. - **Strategic Visualization**: A premium interface built for elite managers who value clarity and speed. ### What to expect Moving forward, you'll see a steady stream of elite analysis: 1. **The Captaincy Outlook**: Who to trust with the armband? 2. **Underlying Stats Deep-Dives**: Finding the "unlucky" players poised for a breakout. 3. **The Scout Report**: High-upside differentials to boost your rank. Whether you're pushing for a top 10k finish or just looking to win your mini-league, we're here to provide the intelligence you need to make the right calls. Welcome aboard. Let's chase some green arrows!

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GWGameweek 20
FPL Admin