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Top Performer

Haaland

Man City

197 Points

GW Status

Highest: 109

Avg: 38

Rising Stars2026-02-27

GW28 Rising Stars: The Non-Template Picks with Elite Form (and the Numbers to Back It)

## Introduction Gameweek 28 is where FPL seasons swing: the template tightens, differentials dry up, and the best way to climb is to spot **high-form players before they become obvious**. Below are 10 “Rising Stars” — players delivering right now with **low-to-mid ownership**, backed by underlying data like **xGI** and **ICT Index**. We’ll focus on **why they’re succeeding**, what the numbers suggest, and whether they look **sustainable long-term**. --- ## The GW28 Rising Stars Snapshot A quick comparison of the key attacking indicators (xGI), overall involvement (ICT), and current form. | Player | Team | Price | Ownership | Form | Points | xGI | ICT Index | Bonus | PPG | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Nico O'Reilly** | Man City | 5.0 | 9.1% | **8.2** | 117 | 4.61 | 108.0 | 6 | 4.5 | | **James Hill** | Bournemouth | 4.1 | 6.1% | **7.2** | 65 | 1.05 | 46.1 | 2 | 3.6 | | **Dango Ouattara** | Brentford | 5.9 | 2.3% | 5.8 | 89 | **7.30** | 94.5 | 10 | 4.2 | | **Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha** | Bournemouth | 5.6 | 2.4% | 5.5 | 22 | 1.61 | 26.5 | 2 | **5.5** | | **Ibrahima Konaté** | Liverpool | 5.4 | 4.0% | 6.8 | 108 | 1.92 | 83.1 | 8 | 4.2 | | **Raúl Jiménez Rodríguez** | Fulham | 6.1 | 2.4% | 5.8 | 94 | **10.40** | **133.4** | 7 | 3.6 | | **Viktor Gyökeres** | Arsenal | 8.8 | 12.2% | **7.0** | 91 | 9.89 | 113.9 | 11 | 3.5 | | **Benjamin Sesko** | Man Utd | 7.2 | 4.1% | 5.8 | 79 | 6.47 | 103.8 | **15** | 3.6 | | **Diogo Dalot Teixeira** | Man Utd | 4.5 | 4.9% | 5.5 | 93 | 3.41 | 93.4 | 9 | 3.7 | | **Alex Scott** | Bournemouth | 5.0 | **1.2%** | 6.0 | 95 | 3.89 | 88.6 | 6 | 3.5 | **What jumps out for GW28:** - **Elite xGI leaders:** Raúl (10.40), Gyökeres (9.89), Ouattara (7.30), Sesko (6.47) - **Best form:** O’Reilly (8.2), Hill (7.2), Gyökeres (7.0), Konaté (6.8) - **True differentials by ownership:** Alex Scott (1.2%), Ouattara (2.3%), Raúl (2.4%), Rayan (2.4%) --- ## The Headliners (High Ceiling, Still Not Template) ### **Raúl Jiménez Rodríguez (Fulham) — The xGI Monster Nobody Owns** Raúl is the standout “how is this not template?” name in this list. **Why he’s succeeding (data-led):** - **xGI: 10.40** (best of all Rising Stars) - **ICT Index: 133.4** (best of all Rising Stars) - Despite only **2.4% ownership**, he’s producing the kind of underlying output you normally associate with premium forwards. **Sustainability check:** - The combination of **elite xGI + elite ICT** is exactly what you want for long-term viability. - The only caution from this dataset: his **PPG is 3.6**, which suggests returns may have been a bit streaky relative to the underlying numbers. **GW28 takeaway:** If you want a forward differential with the strongest statistical case, **Raúl is the headline pick**. --- ### **Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal) — The Near-Template Differential** At **12.2% ownership**, Gyökeres is the closest to “mainstream” here — but he’s not fully template, and the numbers are premium. **Why he’s succeeding:** - **Form: 7.0** (top tier) - **xGI: 9.89** (second only to Raúl) - **ICT: 113.9** (strong all-round involvement) - **Bonus: 11** indicates he’s not just scoring — he’s influencing games. **Sustainability check:** - Strong xGI + strong form is a classic “keep buying until the price/ownership catches up” profile. - His **PPG (3.5)** is modest for the underlying output, so there’s room for either improvement (good) or continued underperformance (risk). **GW28 takeaway:** A high-upside forward who can still function as a differential in many mini-leagues. --- ### **Dango Ouattara (Brentford) — The Low-Owned xGI Bet** Ouattara is the kind of pick that wins you a gameweek when it hits. **Why he’s succeeding:** - **xGI: 7.30** is elite for a **2.3% owned** player - **ICT: 94.5** supports that he’s involved in dangerous moments - **Bonus: 10** suggests his returns often come with extra points. **Sustainability check:** - The underlying output is strong enough to justify continued investment. - His **form (5.8)** is good rather than explosive — so he’s more “steady differential” than “must-buy now.” **GW28 takeaway:** If you’re chasing rank, Ouattara is a **high-upside, low-ownership** play with real statistical backing. --- ## Mid-Price Movers (Great Form, Still Under the Radar) ### **Nico O'Reilly (Man City) — Form King at a Bargain Price** O’Reilly is the best “value + form” blend in the entire list. **Why he’s succeeding:** - **Form: 8.2** (best of all Rising Stars) - **Price: 5.0** makes him easy to fit - **xGI: 4.61** and **ICT: 108.0** show genuine involvement, not just random points - Massive market momentum: **509,018 transfers in** **Sustainability check:** - The underlying numbers are strong enough to support continued returns. - The big warning sign is structural rather than statistical: once a player is pulling **that many transfers in**, they can stop being a “Rising Star” and start becoming a **bandwagon** — meaning you may lose differential value quickly. **GW28 takeaway:** If you want the in-form mid-price pick before he becomes unavoidable, **GW28 is the window**. --- ### **Alex Scott (Bournemouth) — The 1.2% Owned Enabler with Real Output** Scott is the purest differential in the dataset. **Why he’s succeeding:** - **Ownership: 1.2%** (lowest here) - **Form: 6.0** is strong - **xGI: 3.89** and **ICT: 88.6** suggest he’s not just getting lucky **Sustainability check:** - The xGI is solid for a 5.0-priced player. - His **PPG (3.5)** is fine, but not explosive — think “quietly good” rather than “captainable.” **GW28 takeaway:** A smart pick if you need a **differential midfielder** without spending big. --- ## Defensive & Bonus Angles (Points Without Needing Goals) ### **Ibrahima Konaté (Liverpool) — Form + Bonus from a Low-Owned Defender** Konaté offers a different route to points: defensive returns plus bonus. **Why he’s succeeding:** - **Form: 6.8** (elite for a defender) - **Points: 108** with only **4.0% ownership** - **Bonus: 8** indicates he’s often among the top performers when Liverpool do well - **xGI: 1.92** adds a small attacking layer **Sustainability check:** - Defenders with strong form and bonus potential can be sustainable, especially when they don’t rely on attacking returns. - His profile is less “explosive” than the forwards, but more stable. **GW28 takeaway:** A strong non-template defensive pick if you want **steady points and bonus potential**. --- ### **Diogo Dalot Teixeira (Man Utd) — Attacking Defender Profile** Dalot’s appeal is that his underlying numbers look more like a midfielder’s than a defender’s. **Why he’s succeeding:** - **xGI: 3.41** is excellent for a 4.5 defender - **Expected assists: 2.04** is the standout component - **ICT: 93.4** supports consistent involvement - **Bonus: 9** adds upside when returns land **Sustainability check:** - Assist-driven defenders can be sustainable if involvement stays high. - His **form (5.5)** is solid, suggesting he’s not just riding one big haul. **GW28 takeaway:** A strong pick if you want a defender with **attacking routes + bonus** at a budget-friendly price. --- ## The Bournemouth Cluster (Cheap, In-Form, But Know What You’re Buying) Bournemouth feature heavily here: **Hill, Rayan, Scott**. That can be a gift (value concentration) or a trap (overexposure). The key is understanding each profile. ### **James Hill (Bournemouth) — Budget Form with Modest Underlyings** - **Form: 7.2** is excellent - **Price: 4.1** is pure squad value - But **xGI: 1.05** and **ICT: 46.1** are relatively low **Sustainability check:** - This looks more like a **points run** than a guaranteed long-term attacking/bonus profile. ### **Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha (Bournemouth) — High PPG, Small Sample Warning** - **PPG: 5.5** is the best in the list - But only **22 points** total suggests limited data volume - **xGI: 1.61** and **ICT: 26.5** are low **Sustainability check:** - The PPG is eye-catching, but the underlying indicators suggest caution: this could cool quickly. --- ## Bonus Magnet Watch (Sneaky Edge in Tight Gameweeks) When margins are thin, bonus can separate good picks from great ones. **Top bonus earners in this Rising Stars group:** - **Benjamin Sesko (15)** - **Viktor Gyökeres (11)** - **Dango Ouattara (10)** - **Diogo Dalot (9)** ### **Benjamin Sesko (Man Utd) — Bonus-Driven Forward Upside** Sesko’s profile is built for hauls when he hits. - **xGI: 6.47** and **ICT: 103.8** are strong - **Bonus: 15** is the best in the dataset - **Ownership: 4.1%** keeps him firmly non-template **Sustainability check:** - Strong xGI + elite bonus suggests his returns aren’t purely random. - Form (5.8) is solid, not scorching — but the bonus profile is a real differentiator. --- ## GW28 Recommendations (By FPL Need) - **Best overall differential (stats-first):** **Raúl Jiménez** (xGI 10.40, ICT 133.4, 2.4% owned) - **Best in-form value pick:** **Nico O’Reilly** (Form 8.2, £5.0) - **Best “near-template but still leverage” forward:** **Gyökeres** (xGI 9.89, Form 7.0) - **Best high-upside low-owned attacker:** **Ouattara** (xGI 7.30, 2.3% owned) - **Best attacking defender value:** **Dalot** (xGI 3.41, xA 2.04, £4.5) - **Best steady defensive option:** **Konaté** (Form 6.8, 108 points, 4.0% owned) - **Deep differential midfielder:** **Alex Scott** (1.2% owned, xGI 3.89) --- ## Conclusion GW28 is a perfect time to pivot from safe picks into **Rising Stars** — players with **real form and underlying numbers** who haven’t yet become automatic selections. If you want the most data-backed bets, **Raúl** and **Gyökeres** lead the xGI race, **O’Reilly** is the form standout at a bargain price, and **Ouattara/Sesko** offer genuine differential upside with strong supporting metrics. The edge now is simple: **buy the performance before it becomes consensus** — and let GW28 be the week you move first.

Read Analysis
GWGameweek 28
FPL Admin
Differentials2026-02-27

GW28 Differential Gold: 10 Ultra-Low Owned Picks with Elite Form, xGI & ICT to Boost Your Rank

## GW28 Differentials: why now? If you’re chasing rank, you don’t beat the template by copying it—you beat it by finding **low-ownership players** with **real underlying numbers** and **strong recent form**. Below are **Ultra-Differential Gems (<5% owned)** who can swing mini-leagues in **Gameweek 28**. --- ## Quick shortlist (GW28) These are the standouts when you blend **Form**, **xGI**, and **ICT Index** with ultra-low ownership: - **Raúl Jiménez Rodríguez (Fulham)** – monster **xGI 10.40** with just **2.4%** ownership. - **Dango Ouattara (Brentford)** – elite **xGI 7.30**, strong **Form 5.8**, and **10 bonus**. - **Crysencio Summerville (West Ham)** – top-tier **ICT 103.0** and **xGI 5.64** at **3.1%**. - **Alex Scott (Bournemouth)** – sneaky creator/goal threat: **xGI 3.89** with **ICT 88.6** at **1.2%**. - **Ibrahima Konaté (Liverpool)** – defender with attacking upside: **xGI 1.92**, **Form 6.8** at **4.0%**. --- ## GW28 Differential Comparison Table A data-first look at the best rank-climbers. | Player | Team | Pos (in FPL terms) | Ownership | Cost | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Bonus | Pts | PPG | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Raúl Jiménez Rodríguez** | Fulham | FWD | **2.4%** | 6.1 | 5.8 | **10.40** | **133.4** | 7 | 94 | 3.6 | | **Dango Ouattara** | Brentford | MID/FWD | **2.3%** | 5.9 | 5.8 | **7.30** | 94.5 | **10** | 89 | 4.2 | | **Carlos Henrique Casimiro** | Man Utd | MID | **2.5%** | 5.6 | 5.8 | **6.62** | **131.5** | **14** | **115** | **4.6** | | **Benjamin Sesko** | Man Utd | FWD | **4.1%** | 7.2 | 5.8 | 6.47 | 103.8 | **15** | 79 | 3.6 | | **Crysencio Summerville** | West Ham | MID | **3.1%** | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.64 | **103.0** | 7 | 80 | 3.6 | | **Alex Scott** | Bournemouth | MID | **1.2%** | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.89 | 88.6 | 6 | 95 | 3.5 | | **Ibrahima Konaté** | Liverpool | DEF | **4.0%** | 5.4 | **6.8** | 1.92 | 83.1 | 8 | 108 | 4.2 | | **El Hadji Malick Diouf** | West Ham | DEF/MID | **1.7%** | **4.0** | 6.2 | 1.75 | 64.7 | 3 | 70 | 3.3 | | **Đorđe Petrović** | Bournemouth | GK | **4.7%** | 4.5 | 6.2 | 0.00 | 61.8 | 5 | 85 | 3.1 | | **Noni Madueke** | Arsenal | MID | **1.2%** | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.94 | 70.8 | 6 | 51 | 2.7 | --- ## The GW28 Differential Picks (with the “why”) ### 1) Raúl Jiménez Rodríguez (Fulham) — the xGI king - **xGI: 10.40** (xG 9.59 + xA 0.81) - **ICT Index: 133.4** - **Ownership: 2.4%** If you want a true rank-swinger, this is it. The combination of **elite xGI** and **top-tier ICT** screams sustained involvement. At **6.1**, he’s priced like a punt but backed like a premium differential. **Best for:** managers needing a forward differential with real underlying output. --- ### 2) Dango Ouattara (Brentford) — explosive upside + bonus magnet - **xGI: 7.30** (xG 5.20 + xA 2.10) - **Bonus: 10** - **Points per game: 4.2** - **Ownership: 2.3%** Ouattara blends **goal threat** with **assist potential**, and the **bonus count** hints at strong all-round performances. If you’re looking for a differential who can deliver a double-digit haul, he fits the profile. **Best for:** aggressive GW28 chasers who want ceiling. --- ### 3) Carlos Henrique Casimiro (Man Utd) — the steady points differential - **Points: 115** (highest in this list) - **PPG: 4.6** (also highest) - **ICT Index: 131.5** - **Bonus: 14** - **Ownership: 2.5%** Not the flashiest name for FPL, but the data says he’s delivering: **elite ICT**, **strong xGI (6.62)**, and consistent returns. If you want a differential that doesn’t feel like a coin flip, Casimiro is a serious GW28 consideration. **Best for:** managers who want reliability without template ownership. --- ### 4) Benjamin Sesko (Man Utd) — bonus-friendly forward with strong xG - **xGI: 6.47** (xG 6.27) - **Bonus: 15** (highest bonus on the list) - **Ownership: 4.1%** Sesko’s profile is clear: **finisher first** (xA 0.20), with a strong tendency to convert performances into **bonus**. If you’re behind in your mini-league, this is the kind of forward who can flip the script quickly. **Best for:** managers who want a forward differential with bonus upside. --- ### 5) Crysencio Summerville (West Ham) — elite ICT + strong xGI at 3.1% - **ICT Index: 103.0** - **xGI: 5.64** (xG 4.13 + xA 1.51) - **Form: 6.0** Summerville offers the sweet spot: **great underlying numbers**, **good form**, and still barely owned. If you want a midfield differential that looks “real” in the data, he’s one of the cleanest picks. **Best for:** managers wanting a balanced mid with both goal and assist routes. --- ### 6) Alex Scott (Bournemouth) — the 1.2% owned data darling - **Ownership: 1.2%** - **xGI: 3.89** - **ICT Index: 88.6** - **Points: 95** Scott is the kind of pick that wins you a week when others don’t even have the player on their radar. The **ICT** suggests involvement, and the **xGI** supports genuine attacking output. **Best for:** managers who want a true “ghost” differential. --- ### 7) Ibrahima Konaté (Liverpool) — form monster with attacking threat - **Form: 6.8** (best on the list) - **Points: 108** - **xGI: 1.92** (xG 1.05 + xA 0.87) - **Bonus: 8** Konaté stands out because defenders don’t need huge xGI to matter—**form + points + bonus** can do the heavy lifting. Add in nearly **2.0 xGI** and you’ve got a defender who can return at both ends. **Best for:** managers who want a differential defender without sacrificing stability. --- ## Budget enablers (still differential) If you need funds to upgrade elsewhere, these two keep your team unique: - **El Hadji Malick Diouf (West Ham) — 4.0** - **Form 6.2**, **xGI 1.75**, **1.7% owned** - **Đorđe Petrović (Bournemouth) — 4.5** - **Form 6.2**, **85 points**, **4.7% owned** --- ## High-risk punt (only if you need a miracle) - **Noni Madueke (Arsenal)** - **Ownership 1.2%**, **xGI 2.94**, **Form 5.8** The data shows some underlying involvement, but the overall output (**51 points, 2.7 PPG**) makes this more of a “swing for the fences” move than a safe GW28 play. --- ## GW28 takeaway Differentials aren’t about being different for the sake of it—they’re about being **early** on players whose **form and underlying numbers** justify the gamble. For GW28, the data points strongest toward **Jiménez** and **Ouattara** for upside, **Casimiro** for steady returns, and **Summerville/Scott** for low-owned midfield value. If you’re chasing rank, pick **one or two** of these names and let the ownership do the rest.

Read Analysis
GWGameweek 28
FPL Admin
Optimal Squad2026-02-27

GW28 Scout’s Selection: The xGI-Driven Optimal 11 (Built Around Haaland, Bruno & O’Reilly)

## Introduction Gameweek 28 is the perfect moment to lean into what the numbers are already shouting: **form**, **xGI**, and **ICT Index**. Using only the provided data (and respecting the **max 3 players per club** rule), here’s the **best team on paper**—a balanced XI that blends elite ceilings with value picks. --- ## GW28 Optimal 11 (3-4-3) ### Goalkeeper - **Dean Henderson (Crystal Palace, 5.0)** — **109 pts**, **6.8 form**, 4.0 PPG ### Defenders - **Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool, 6.0)** — **122 pts**, **8.0 form**, elite ICT - **Nico O’Reilly (Man City, 5.0)** — **117 pts**, **8.2 form**, defender with attacker-level xGI - **James Hill (Bournemouth, 4.1)** — **7.2 form** budget enabler with steady underlying involvement ### Midfielders - **Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd, 9.9)** — monster **xGI 14.94** and **ICT 234.4** - **Antoine Semenyo (Man City, 8.1)** — high ownership for a reason: **157 pts**, **xGI 10.99** - **Cole Palmer (Chelsea, 10.6)** — the form king: **9.2 form**, **xGI 9.25** - **Dango Ouattara (Brentford, 5.9)** — value mid with strong **xGI 7.30** ### Forwards - **Erling Haaland (Man City, 14.8)** — the captaincy baseline: **193 pts**, **xGI 22.52** - **João Pedro (Chelsea, 7.7)** — elite output: **139 pts**, **8.8 form**, **xGI 11.71** - **Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal, 8.8)** — strong underlying threat: **xGI 9.89** **Club quota check (max 3):** - Man City: Haaland, Semenyo, O’Reilly (3) - Chelsea: Palmer, João Pedro (2) - Liverpool: Van Dijk (1) - Bournemouth: Hill (1) - Crystal Palace: Henderson (1) - Man Utd: Bruno (1) - Brentford: Ouattara (1) - Arsenal: Gyökeres (1) --- ## Key Data Tables (Why These Picks) ### Goalkeeper shortlist | Player | Team | Cost | Points | Form | ICT | Bonus | PPG | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Dean Henderson** | Crystal Palace | 5.0 | **109** | **6.8** | 62.5 | 7 | 4.0 | | Đorđe Petrović | Bournemouth | 4.5 | 85 | 6.2 | 61.8 | 5 | 3.1 | | Emiliano Martínez | Aston Villa | 5.1 | 95 | 4.8 | 53.1 | **10** | 4.1 | **Verdict:** Henderson edges it on the blend of **points + form**, with solid baseline returns. --- ### Defender comparison (attacking + influence) | Defender | Team | Cost | Points | Form | xGI | ICT | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Nico O’Reilly** | Man City | 5.0 | 117 | **8.2** | **4.61** | 108.0 | | **Virgil van Dijk** | Liverpool | 6.0 | **122** | 8.0 | 2.79 | **123.4** | | Tyrick Mitchell | Crystal Palace | 5.0 | 105 | 5.0 | 2.59 | 99.6 | | Diogo Dalot | Man Utd | 4.5 | 93 | 5.5 | 3.41 | 93.4 | | **James Hill** | Bournemouth | 4.1 | 65 | 7.2 | 1.05 | 46.1 | **Verdict:** O’Reilly is the standout: **defender price, midfielder xGI**. Van Dijk brings elite **ICT + points**. Hill is the value glue. --- ### Midfield engine room (ceiling + consistency) | Midfielder | Team | Cost | Points | Form | xGI | ICT | Bonus | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Bruno Fernandes** | Man Utd | 9.9 | 145 | 6.0 | **14.94** | **234.4** | **25** | | **Antoine Semenyo** | Man City | 8.1 | **157** | 6.8 | 10.99 | 195.2 | 17 | | **Cole Palmer** | Chelsea | 10.6 | 82 | **9.2** | 9.25 | 96.4 | 7 | | **Dango Ouattara** | Brentford | 5.9 | 89 | 5.8 | 7.30 | 94.5 | 10 | **Verdict:** Bruno is the ultimate data pick (xGI + ICT + bonus). Palmer is the **form play**. Semenyo is the high-output anchor. Ouattara is the value accelerator. --- ### Forward line (captaincy + support strikers) | Forward | Team | Cost | Points | Form | xGI | ICT | Bonus | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Erling Haaland** | Man City | 14.8 | **193** | 6.8 | **22.52** | **238.6** | **35** | | **João Pedro** | Chelsea | 7.7 | 139 | **8.8** | 11.71 | 165.3 | 25 | | **Viktor Gyökeres** | Arsenal | 8.8 | 91 | 7.0 | 9.89 | 113.9 | 11 | | Hugo Ekitiké | Liverpool | 8.9 | 106 | 4.8 | 11.21 | 135.7 | 19 | **Verdict:** Haaland is the non-negotiable **xGI king**. João Pedro pairs elite form with strong xGI. Gyökeres wins the third slot on **form + xGI**, while avoiding overloading Liverpool slots. --- ## Captaincy (Data-First) - **Captain: Erling Haaland** — unmatched **xGI 22.52** and **ICT 238.6**. - **Vice-captain: Bruno Fernandes** — **xGI 14.94** with huge bonus potential. --- ## Conclusion This GW28 Scout’s Selection is built to win on paper: **Haaland** for the armband, **Bruno + Semenyo** for relentless midfield output, and **O’Reilly** as the defender who plays like an attacker. It’s a numbers-led XI that respects team limits while maximizing **form, xGI, and ICT**—exactly the profile you want when chasing rank.

Read Analysis
GWGameweek 28
FPL Admin
Unlucky Players2026-02-23

GW28 Unlucky XI: The xGI Monsters Who Owe Us a Haul (Martinelli, Watkins & Maatsen)

## Introduction FPL is brutal when the eye test says “he’s everywhere” but the points say “2”. For **Gameweek 28**, we’re hunting the most **unlucky** assets: players with **strong Expected Goal Involvement (xGI)** but **underwhelming actual returns** so far. When xGI stays high, the points usually follow — and that’s where the next massive haul often comes from. --- ## The headline: xGI-rich, points-poor picks for GW28 These are the standouts from the data — players generating the right chances (xGI) but not converting it into FPL joy yet. ### Quick comparison table (xGI vs output indicators) | Player | Team | Cost | Selected By | Points | Form | ICT Index | xGI | Why they’re “unlucky” | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| | **Ollie Watkins** | Aston Villa | 8.6 | 9.0% | 97 | 2.8 | **133.5** | **10.72** | Elite xGI + huge ICT, but points not matching the volume | | **Gabriel Martinelli** | Arsenal | 6.8 | 1.0% | 41 | 2.0 | 58.7 | **4.32** | Strong xGI for the price, yet minimal points return | | **Ian Maatsen** | Aston Villa | 4.2 | 0.6% | 38 | 3.6 | **65.2** | **2.59** | Attacking full-back numbers without the payoff | | **Riccardo Calafiori** | Arsenal | 5.6 | 6.3% | 86 | 1.5 | 56.8 | **3.17** | Big xGI for a defender, but returns haven’t landed | | **Jadon Sancho** | Aston Villa | 5.8 | 0.2% | 24 | 2.0 | 46.5 | **2.02** | Creative + goal threat in the data, points lagging | --- ## GW28’s most “due” for a massive haul ### **1) Ollie Watkins (AVL) — the xGI king who’s about to explode** Watkins is the clearest “how is he not hauling?” profile in the dataset: - **xGI: 10.72** (best here by a mile) - **ICT Index: 133.5** (screams involvement and threat) - **Points: 97** with **Form: 2.8** — the output hasn’t kept pace with the underlying volume **GW28 prediction:** If you’re looking for the classic “one week he scores 13+ and everyone pretends they always owned him” candidate, this is it. The data says the chances are coming — the finishing/assists are the missing piece. **FPL angle:** A high-upside forward with strong underlying involvement is exactly the profile that can flip mini-leagues in one gameweek. --- ### **2) Gabriel Martinelli (ARS) — low ownership, high xGI, huge upside** Martinelli is quietly one of the most interesting “unlucky” attackers: - **xGI: 4.32** - **ICT Index: 58.7** - **Selected by: 1.0%** (a genuine differential) - **Points: 41** and **Form: 2.0** — not reflecting the xGI at all **GW28 prediction:** A classic differential haul candidate. When a player carries this level of xGI at **tiny ownership**, one big return can be a rank rocket. --- ### **3) Ian Maatsen (AVL) — budget defender with attacker-level involvement** Maatsen’s numbers are the kind that usually become FPL folklore after a random 12-pointer: - **Cost: 4.2** - **xGI: 2.59** - **ICT Index: 65.2** (very strong) - **Points: 38** — the output hasn’t matched the attacking promise **GW28 prediction:** A defender with this xGI profile is always one clean sheet + attacking return away from a monster score. --- ## The “unlucky defenders” worth monitoring Defenders with meaningful xGI are gold because a single goal/assist can stack with clean-sheet points. ### **Riccardo Calafiori (ARS)** - **xGI: 3.17** (massive for a defender) - **ICT Index: 56.8** - **Points: 86** but **Form: 1.5** suggests recent returns haven’t arrived ### **William Saliba (ARS)** - **xGI: 1.23** - **ICT Index: 52.9** - **Points: 86** with **Form: 2.8** — steady, but still under-delivering vs involvement **GW28 prediction:** If Arsenal defenders are getting these levels of xGI, the next set-piece connection could be the difference between a 6 and a 15. --- ## Deep differentials (high risk, high reward) These are for managers chasing upside and willing to embrace volatility. - **Jadon Sancho (AVL)** - **xGI: 2.02**, **ICT: 46.5**, **Selected by: 0.2%** - The data hints at returns that simply haven’t shown up yet. - **Douglas Luiz (AVL)** - **xGI: 1.46**, **ICT: 39.3**, **Selected by: 0.1%** - Underlying involvement suggests he’s capable of popping up with points despite low ownership. --- ## Conclusion For **Gameweek 28**, the data-driven “unlucky” shortlist is clear: **Watkins** is the premium xGI monster most likely to deliver a statement haul, while **Martinelli** offers the kind of low-owned upside that can transform rank in a single week. If you want value, **Maatsen** (and even **Calafiori**) bring rare attacking involvement for their price points. When xGI stays high, patience often gets rewarded — and GW28 looks like the perfect time for these numbers to finally turn into points.

Read Analysis
GWGameweek 28
FPL Admin
Underlying Stats2026-02-23

GW28 Underlying Stats Radar: The ICT Monsters Driving FPL Points (Even Before the Hauls)

## Introduction Gameweek 28 is where FPL seasons swing: the obvious picks stay obvious, but the *underlying* picks—those quietly controlling matches—often become the difference-makers. Using **minutes-normalized ICT performers**, this piece zooms in on the players whose **Influence + Creativity + Threat** profiles suggest they’re driving outcomes, even when the recent points haven’t fully landed. --- ## The GW28 “Control the Game” Shortlist (Minutes-Normalized ICT) The ICT Index is a blended signal: **Influence** (how much a player shapes the game), **Creativity** (chance creation), and **Threat** (goal threat). When a player ranks highly here, it often means they’re repeatedly getting into the right actions—shots, key passes, involvement—regardless of whether variance has converted it into FPL hauls yet. ### Top-line comparison table Below is a clean snapshot of the key deep metrics available: **ICT Index**, **xGI**, and supporting context (**Form**, **Points per Game**, **Ownership**). | Player | Team | Cost | Selected % | Status | ICT Index | xGI | xG | xA | Form | PPG | Bonus | |---|---|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Erling Haaland** | Man City | 14.8 | 67.2 | a | **238.6** | **22.52** | **20.66** | 1.86 | 6.8 | **7.1** | **35** | | **Bruno Fernandes** | Man Utd | 9.9 | 37.2 | a | **232.5** | **14.94** | 8.19 | **6.75** | 5.8 | 6.0 | 25 | | **Bukayo Saka** | Arsenal | 9.8 | 7.6 | d | 185.5 | 12.07 | 6.71 | 5.36 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 13 | | **Bryan Mbeumo** | Man Utd | 8.6 | 22.9 | a | 175.2 | 11.48 | 7.54 | 3.94 | **6.4** | 5.2 | 15 | | **Phil Foden** | Man City | 8.1 | 9.3 | a | 163.0 | 8.88 | 5.29 | 3.59 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 10 | | **Mohamed Salah** | Liverpool | 14.0 | 14.2 | a | 152.4 | 10.16 | 6.18 | 3.98 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5 | | **Rayan Cherki** | Man City | 6.4 | 8.3 | a | 130.9 | 8.03 | 2.16 | **5.87** | 2.8 | 4.1 | 12 | | Jérémy Doku | Man City | 6.4 | 2.3 | d | 123.8 | 6.06 | 1.81 | 4.25 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 9 | | Estêvão Gonçalves | Chelsea | 6.4 | 2.3 | d | 67.7 | 4.94 | 2.82 | 2.12 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 4 | | Samuel Chukwueze | Fulham | 5.3 | 0.1 | i | 62.9 | 4.11 | 1.56 | 2.55 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 1 | | Omar Marmoush | Man City | 8.3 | 2.5 | a | 42.4 | 2.50 | 1.84 | 0.66 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 4 | | Charalampos Kostoulas | Brighton | 4.8 | 0.4 | a | 40.1 | 1.93 | 1.70 | 0.23 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 3 | | Eddie Nketiah | Crystal Palace | 5.4 | 0.3 | i | 37.8 | 2.23 | 1.77 | 0.46 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 3 | | Gabriel Jesus | Arsenal | 6.4 | 0.5 | a | 33.0 | 1.94 | 1.75 | 0.19 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0 | | Rayan Rocha | Bournemouth | 5.6 | 1.8 | a | 26.5 | 1.61 | 0.80 | 0.81 | **5.5** | **5.5** | 2 | --- ## The true “game controllers” for GW28 (where ICT + xGI align) These are the profiles you want when you’re chasing repeatable involvement rather than last week’s points. ### 1) **Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd)** — the complete ICT profile - **ICT Index: 232.5** (elite, second only to Haaland) - **xGI: 14.94** with a rare balance: **xG 8.19 + xA 6.75** - **Bonus: 25** suggests his contributions are translating into baseline + decisive actions - **Form: 5.8** and **PPG: 6.0** back up the underlying dominance **GW28 takeaway:** Bruno’s numbers scream *control*: he’s not just finishing chances—he’s also creating them at volume. If you want a midfielder who can return via goals *or* assists, this is the cleanest data-led case. --- ### 2) **Erling Haaland (Man City)** — the Threat king (and still an ICT monster) - **ICT Index: 238.6** (best in this dataset) - **xGI: 22.52** driven by a massive **xG: 20.66** - **PPG: 7.1** with **Bonus: 35** = consistent conversion + dominance - **Selected by: 67.2%**: the definition of “shield pick,” but the underlying data justifies it **GW28 takeaway:** Even when City rotate around him, the underlying output remains overwhelming. If you’re looking for a “captaincy by data” anchor, this is it. --- ### 3) **Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd)** — high ICT, high form, strong xGI - **ICT Index: 175.2** - **xGI: 11.48** (xG 7.54, xA 3.94) - **Form: 6.4** (best among the premium-ish mids here) - **Transfers in: 35,587** indicates the market is reacting—*but the metrics support it* **GW28 takeaway:** Mbeumo’s profile is the sweet spot: strong involvement signals (ICT), strong expected output (xGI), and strong recent returns (form). He’s not just “hot”—he’s statistically active. --- ## The “quiet drivers” (high ICT/Creativity signals, points may lag) This is the GW28 hunting ground: players whose involvement suggests returns can spike. ### 4) **Rayan Cherki (Man City)** — creativity-led xGI at a mid price - **ICT Index: 130.9** - **xGI: 8.03** powered by **xA: 5.87** (chance creation is the story) - **Cost: 6.4** with **8.3%** ownership: not a punt, but still a leverage pick - **Transfers out: 32,999** despite strong xA: classic “points-chasing” sell-off risk **GW28 takeaway:** If you’re targeting *control via creativity*, Cherki’s xA is the standout. He’s the type who can rack up assists quickly when finishing variance swings back. --- ### 5) **Phil Foden (Man City)** — strong underlying, weaker recent form - **ICT Index: 163.0** and **xGI: 8.88** (xG 5.29, xA 3.59) - **Form: 1.8** with **Transfers out: 21,661** **GW28 takeaway:** This is the archetypal “underlying > recent points” case. The ICT and xGI say involvement is there; the form says the returns haven’t followed lately. If you’re comfortable buying into regression, Foden is a data-backed rebound candidate. --- ### 6) **Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)** — premium output with a slightly different shape - **ICT Index: 152.4** - **xGI: 10.16** (xG 6.18, xA 3.98) - **Bonus: 5** is notably low relative to other premiums here **GW28 takeaway:** The expected output remains strong, but compared to the very top ICT/bonus profiles (Haaland/Bruno), Salah’s bonus conversion in this dataset is less dominant. Still, the xGI is premium-grade. --- ## Injury/availability watchlist (GW28 risk management) Minutes-normalized metrics are powerful, but **status** matters. - **Bukayo Saka (d)**: **ICT 185.5** and **xGI 12.07** are elite. If he’s available, he’s immediately back in the conversation as a top-tier controller. - **Jérémy Doku (d)**: **ICT 123.8**, **xGI 6.06**, but **Form 0.0** and flagged. - **Estêvão Gonçalves (d)**: mid-range **ICT 67.7**, **xGI 4.94**—monitor. - **Samuel Chukwueze (i)** and **Eddie Nketiah (i)**: avoid until status clears. --- ## Differentials & budget notes (where the data whispers) If you’re looking for low-ownership players with some underlying signal: - **Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton, 4.8)** - **ICT 40.1**, **xGI 1.93**, **0.4%** owned - Not a headline pick, but the minutes-normalized placement suggests involvement when he plays. - **Rayan Rocha (Bournemouth, 5.6)** - **Form 5.5** and **PPG 5.5** jump off the page - But **ICT 26.5** and **xGI 1.61** are modest—this looks more like *conversion/variance* than sustained control. --- ## Conclusion For GW28, the data points to a clear hierarchy of “control” picks: - **Haaland** and **Bruno** are the elite ICT engines—dominant involvement with dominant expected output. - **Mbeumo** is the best blend of **form + ICT + xGI** among the mid-premium mids. - **Cherki** and **Foden** are the most interesting “underlying-first” plays—especially if you’re targeting creativity-driven returns or betting on regression. If you’re building for repeatable points rather than chasing last week’s haul, **follow the ICT and xGI**—that’s where the next spike usually starts.

Read Analysis
GWGameweek 28
FPL Admin
Transfers2026-02-23

GW28 Transfer Market: O’Reilly’s Budget Boom, Van Dijk’s Safety Net — and Chelsea’s Mass Sell-Off

## Introduction Gameweek 28’s transfer market has a clear theme: **managers are buying form and perceived security** (Liverpool defence, City value picks), while **dumping flagged/injured assets** and a chunk of Chelsea players. But are these moves calculated… or classic knee-jerk? Below is a data-led look at the **most transferred IN and OUT** players, plus whether the crowd is making smart calls. --- ## Most Transferred IN (GW28) ### Top movers in | Player | Team | Price | Form | Points | Selected By % | Transfers In | xGI | ICT Index | Status | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| | **Nico O'Reilly** | Man City | 5.0 | **8.2** | 117 | 6.8 | **218,881** | 4.61 | 108.0 | a | | **Virgil van Dijk** | Liverpool | 6.0 | **8.0** | 122 | 24.7 | **161,952** | 2.69 | 123.3 | a | | Dominik Szoboszlai | Liverpool | 6.8 | 4.0 | 100 | 7.4 | 81,907 | **7.61** | 171.0 | a | | Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues | Brentford | 7.1 | 2.6 | 135 | 32.0 | 76,896 | **16.61** | 185.8 | a | | Antoine Semenyo | Man City | 8.0 | 6.8 | **157** | **52.1** | 70,028 | 10.99 | **195.2** | a | | James Hill | Bournemouth | 4.0 | 7.2 | 65 | 5.1 | 56,860 | 1.05 | 46.1 | a | | Harry Wilson | Fulham | 5.9 | 3.5 | 128 | 20.0 | 48,645 | 8.16 | 148.7 | a | | João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus | Chelsea | 7.7 | **9.4** | 139 | 47.7 | 47,748 | 11.71 | 165.3 | a | ### Smart buys vs knee-jerk: quick verdicts - **Nico O’Reilly (218,881 in)** — **Mostly smart (value + form)** - The appeal is obvious: **£5.0** with **8.2 form** and **4.5 points per game**. - His **xGI (4.61)** isn’t elite, but at this price the market is buying **budget flexibility** and recent output. - **Virgil van Dijk (161,952 in)** — **Smart, “boring” points chasing** - **8.0 form**, **122 points**, and a strong **bonus (9)** profile. - Attacking upside is modest (**xGI 2.69**), but this is a classic “pay for reliability” move. - **Dominik Szoboszlai (81,907 in)** — **Potentially smart, but form-chasing risk** - The underlying numbers are loud: **xGI 7.61** and **ICT 171.0**. - The concern: **form 4.0** suggests managers are buying the *idea* of returns more than current delivery. - **Igor Thiago (76,896 in)** — **Data says smart, form says caution** - Monster underlying output: **xGI 16.61** and **xG 15.06**. - But **form 2.6** is a red flag for immediate payoff. This looks like a **longer-horizon bet** rather than a short-term bandwagon. - **Antoine Semenyo (70,028 in)** — **Smart, but ownership makes it defensive** - Already **52.1% owned**; buying now is often about **protecting rank**. - Strong blend: **157 points**, **form 6.8**, **ICT 195.2**, **xGI 10.99**. - **James Hill (56,860 in)** — **Likely a pure enabler move** - **£4.0** with **7.2 form** is eye-catching, but the attacking data is tiny (**xGI 1.05**, **ICT 46.1**). - This screams **bench fodder to fund upgrades** elsewhere. - **Harry Wilson (48,645 in)** — **Borderline knee-jerk** - Solid season: **128 points**, **xGI 8.16**. - But **form 3.5** suggests this is not driven by immediate hot streak—more a **steady pick** that managers are rotating into. - **João Pedro (47,748 in)** — **Smart on form, but market is split** - Elite short-term signal: **form 9.4**, plus **xGI 11.71** and **bonus 25**. - However, he also appears among the most transferred out (more on that below), implying **wildcard churn, structure changes, or late reversals**. --- ## Most Transferred OUT (GW28) ### Top movers out | Player | Team | Price | Form | Points | Selected By % | Transfers Out | xGI | ICT Index | Status | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| | **Enzo Fernández** | Chelsea | 6.8 | 4.4 | 120 | 21.5 | **122,487** | **15.03** | **193.0** | a | | **Trevoh Chalobah** | Chelsea | 5.8 | 3.2 | 126 | 23.0 | **119,588** | 1.89 | 88.5 | a | | Jurriën Timber | Arsenal | 6.4 | 3.0 | 127 | 29.2 | 80,753 | 5.74 | 117.4 | a | | **Bruno Guimarães** | Newcastle | 6.9 | 2.8 | 134 | 7.3 | 79,276 | 8.44 | 168.3 | **i** | | Marc Guéhi | Man City | 5.2 | 3.8 | 126 | 37.1 | 67,602 | 4.67 | 109.9 | a | | João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus | Chelsea | 7.7 | **9.4** | 139 | 47.7 | 57,050 | 11.71 | 165.3 | a | | Marc Cucurella | Chelsea | 6.1 | 3.2 | 90 | 15.0 | 53,918 | 4.37 | 100.8 | **i** | | Maxence Lacroix | Crystal Palace | 5.1 | 3.4 | 116 | 5.4 | 51,951 | 2.57 | 87.7 | **d** | ### Smart sells vs knee-jerk: quick verdicts - **Enzo Fernández (122,487 out)** — **Leans knee-jerk (data is strong)** - This is the standout “are we sure?” sale. - Despite only **4.4 form**, his underlying output is huge: **xGI 15.03** and **ICT 193.0**. - Selling an **available (status a)** player with these numbers often signals **impatience** or a **restructure to fit other premiums**. - **Trevoh Chalobah (119,588 out)** — **Probably smart** - **Form 3.2**, low attacking threat (**xGI 1.89**), and managers appear to be moving away from Chelsea defence. - **Jurriën Timber (80,753 out)** — **Reasonable sell** - **Form 3.0** with decent-ish **xGI 5.74**, but at **£6.4** managers may prefer clearer value elsewhere. - **Bruno Guimarães (79,276 out)** — **Smart (injury-driven)** - Status is **i**. Even with strong season production (**134 points**, **PPG 5.8**, **xGI 8.44**), this is a pragmatic exit. - **Marc Guéhi (67,602 out)** — **Could be knee-jerk** - He’s **available**, has **126 points** and **5.0 PPG**. - Not explosive (**xGI 4.67**), but dumping a steady scorer can backfire unless it funds a major upgrade. - **João Pedro (57,050 out)** — **Classic market contradiction** - With **9.4 form** and **xGI 11.71**, selling looks counterintuitive. - The fact he’s also heavily bought suggests **team-structure turbulence** (wildcards, late switches, or managers moving funds). - **Marc Cucurella (53,918 out)** — **Smart (injury-driven)** - Status **i** plus modest output (**90 points**, **3.8 PPG**). - **Maxence Lacroix (51,951 out)** — **Smart (doubtful)** - Status **d** makes this a sensible risk-off move. --- ## Head-to-Head: The Big Talking Points ### Liverpool magnet: Van Dijk vs Szoboszlai | Player | Price | Form | Points | xGI | ICT | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Van Dijk** | 6.0 | **8.0** | 122 | 2.69 | 123.3 | | **Szoboszlai** | 6.8 | 4.0 | 100 | **7.61** | **171.0** | - **Van Dijk** is the **form-and-stability** pick. - **Szoboszlai** is the **underlying-stats** pick (higher ceiling on paper), but managers buying now are accepting short-term volatility. ### The Chelsea chaos: Enzo OUT while João Pedro IN (and OUT) | Player | Form | Points | xGI | ICT | Net Transfer Signal | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| | **Enzo Fernández** | 4.4 | 120 | **15.03** | **193.0** | Heavy OUT | | **João Pedro** | **9.4** | 139 | 11.71 | 165.3 | Both IN and OUT | - **Enzo’s sale** looks like the most **knee-jerk** move of the week given his elite xGI/ICT. - **João Pedro** is the opposite: the data supports buying, but the split transfer flow suggests managers are **tinkering aggressively**. --- ## Conclusion GW28’s transfer market is a mix of **sharp value hunting** (O’Reilly, Hill as an enabler), **safe-point consolidation** (Van Dijk), and **injury housekeeping** (Bruno, Cucurella, Lacroix). The biggest red flag is the mass sale of **Enzo Fernández** despite standout underlying numbers—this feels more like **impatience or restructuring** than a data-backed exit. If you’re following the crowd this week, make sure you know *why*: are you buying **form**, **fixtures-by-proxy**, **team structure**, or just last week’s points?

Read Analysis
GWGameweek 28
FPL Admin