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GW 27 Deadline

Top Performer

Haaland

Man City

187 Points

GW Status

Highest: 138

Avg: 58

Transfers2026-02-10

GW26 Transfer Market: Arsenal Fever, Bruno’s Boom, and the Great Saka Sell-Off

## Introduction Gameweek 26’s transfer market has a clear story: **managers are piling into Arsenal**, backing **Bruno Fernandes’ elite output**, and chasing **João Pedro’s red-hot form**—while mass-selling a mix of **injured flags** and **cooling assets**. But are these moves sharp, or classic FPL knee-jerks? --- ## The Big Picture: Who’s Being Bought vs Sold? ### Most Transferred IN (Top 8) - **Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal)** — 402,536 in - **Martín Zubimendi (Arsenal)** — 342,785 in - **Declan Rice (Arsenal)** — 330,225 in - **Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd)** — 310,740 in - **João Pedro (Chelsea)** — 288,746 in - **Jurriën Timber (Arsenal)** — 252,638 in - **Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd)** — 237,944 in - **Gabriel (Arsenal)** — 224,346 in ### Most Transferred OUT (Top 8) - **Harry Wilson (Fulham)** — 447,682 out - **Igor Thiago (Brentford)** — 319,263 out - **Bukayo Saka (Arsenal, status: d)** — 233,811 out - **Reece James (Chelsea, status: d)** — 201,852 out - **Phil Foden (Man City)** — 195,831 out - **Antoine Semenyo (Man City)** — 155,582 out - **James Tarkowski (Everton)** — 152,950 out - **Hugo Ekitiké (Liverpool)** — 149,346 out **Trend read:** This is a **form + availability** market. The two biggest “outs” with clear justification are **Saka (d)** and **Reece James (d)**. The rest look more like performance-chasing and impatience. --- ## The “IN” Crowd: Smart Buys or Bandwagons? ### Key attacking/creative targets (Form, xGI, ICT) | Player | Team | Cost | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Points | PPG | Selected by % | Transfers In | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Bruno Fernandes** | Man Utd | 9.8 | **8.8** | **14.60** | **224.7** | 141 | **6.4** | 36.3 | 310,740 | | **João Pedro** | Chelsea | 7.6 | **9.5** | 9.25 | 145.0 | 122 | 4.9 | **44.2** | 288,746 | | **Bryan Mbeumo** | Man Utd | 8.6 | 7.2 | 10.67 | 168.0 | 103 | 5.2 | 22.2 | 237,944 | | **Declan Rice** | Arsenal | 7.5 | 3.0 | 8.17 | 164.5 | 134 | 5.6 | 35.4 | 330,225 | | **Viktor Gyökeres** | Arsenal | 8.8 | 5.2 | 8.79 | 98.0 | 75 | 3.3 | 13.2 | **402,536** | | **Martín Zubimendi** | Arsenal | 5.3 | 6.0 | 4.08 | 101.9 | 101 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 342,785 | #### Verdicts - **Bruno Fernandes: Smart, not a knee-jerk** - The profile screams “premium worth paying for”: **xGI 14.60** and a monster **ICT 224.7** with **6.4 PPG**. - This looks like managers correcting an under-ownership problem rather than chasing a single haul. - **João Pedro: Form-chasing, but supported by numbers** - **Form 9.5** is the headline, but **xGI 9.25** and **23 bonus** suggest it’s not pure hype. - At **7.6**, he’s priced like a mid-tier forward with genuine upside—still, the scale of buying can be a sign of a bandwagon. - **Mbeumo: Sensible mid-price momentum** - **xGI 10.67** and **Form 7.2** is a strong combo. - Notably lower ownership (**22.2%**) than the most popular picks, so this could be a calculated move rather than herd behavior. - **Rice: A “safe points” buy, but not explosive on current form** - **PPG 5.6** and **xGI 8.17** are strong, but **Form 3.0** suggests managers may be buying the season-long reliability rather than recent output. - This is more “structure” than “spike.” - **Gyökeres: The biggest bandwagon risk** - He’s the **#1 transfer in** (402k+), but his **PPG is only 3.3** and **ICT 98.0** is the lowest among the main attacking buys. - The underlying **xGI 8.79** is decent, yet the market enthusiasm looks ahead of the actual FPL returns so far. - **Zubimendi: Budget enabler with respectable form** - **Form 6.0** and **4.0 PPG** at **5.3** is tidy. - Not a ceiling pick, but could be a rational “make the funds work” transfer. --- ## Arsenal Defensive Double-Down: Timber + Gabriel | Player | Cost | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Points | PPG | Bonus | Selected by % | Transfers In | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Gabriel** | 7.1 | **5.8** | 2.56 | 79.1 | **135** | **7.1** | **18** | **42.8** | 224,346 | | **Timber** | 6.4 | 4.2 | **5.41** | **104.0** | 121 | 5.0 | 7 | 31.0 | 252,638 | **Read:** This looks **mostly smart**. - **Gabriel** is delivering elite defender value: **7.1 PPG** with **18 bonus**. - **Timber** has surprisingly strong attacking involvement for a defender (**xGI 5.41**, higher than Gabriel’s), though his **bonus (7)** and **PPG (5.0)** lag. **Potential knee-jerk angle:** doubling/tripling Arsenal can become a herd move—great when it hits, painful when it doesn’t. But based on points and bonus, **Gabriel especially looks justified**. --- ## The “OUT” Crowd: Rational Sells vs Panic Dumps ### The flagged exits (mostly rational) | Player | Team | Status | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Transfers Out | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Bukayo Saka** | Arsenal | **d** | 0.8 | **10.69** | 161.4 | 233,811 | | **Reece James** | Chelsea | **d** | 3.5 | 3.16 | 89.7 | 201,852 | - **Saka out** is understandable due to status (**d**) and **Form 0.8**, even though his **xGI 10.69** is excellent. This is a classic case of: *great asset, wrong week.* - **Reece James out** is also logical: flagged (**d**) and not enough attacking output to justify holding through uncertainty. ### The big non-flagged sales (more knee-jerk) | Player | Team | Cost | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Points | PPG | Transfers Out | |---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Harry Wilson** | Fulham | 6.0 | 4.0 | 7.62 | 137.0 | 118 | 4.9 | **447,682** | | **Igor Thiago** | Brentford | 7.0 | 2.8 | **14.88** | 175.5 | 131 | 5.2 | 319,263 | | **Phil Foden** | Man City | 8.2 | 0.8 | 8.48 | 150.8 | 103 | 4.7 | 195,831 | | **Antoine Semenyo** | Man City | 7.9 | 4.8 | 9.88 | 176.5 | 139 | 5.8 | 155,582 | | **Hugo Ekitiké** | Liverpool | 8.9 | 4.5 | 9.95 | 126.4 | 102 | 4.6 | 149,346 | | **James Tarkowski** | Everton | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.76 | 100.3 | 116 | 4.6 | 152,950 | #### Verdicts - **Harry Wilson (447k out): likely a herd move** - His **Form 4.0** isn’t disastrous, and **xGI 7.62** with **4.9 PPG** is perfectly playable at **6.0**. - This looks like managers funding the popular buys rather than reacting to a collapse. - **Igor Thiago: the numbers say “don’t panic”** - **xGI 14.88** and **ICT 175.5** are elite, even if **Form 2.8** is dragging sentiment. - Selling a forward with that underlying output can easily be a **knee-jerk**—unless managers are responding to something not shown here. - **Foden: form-driven exit** - **Form 0.8** explains the sales, but **xGI 8.48** and **ICT 150.8** suggest there’s still a strong base. - This is a classic “sell low” risk. - **Semenyo: surprising sell given the season output** - **139 points**, **5.8 PPG**, **xGI 9.88**, **ICT 176.5**—this is not a profile that screams urgent sale. - Likely a **reallocation** to Bruno/João Pedro/Arsenal rather than a data-backed downgrade. - **Ekitiké: steady, not spectacular—sale is understandable but not mandatory** - **xGI 9.95** is solid, **Form 4.5** is fine. This feels like a “make room” transfer. - **Tarkowski: budget defender churn** - **4.6 PPG** is respectable. This looks like managers chasing Arsenal defensive points/bonus instead. --- ## Smart Trend vs Knee-Jerk: Quick Summary ### **Smart / Data-supported** - **Bruno Fernandes IN** (elite **xGI 14.60**, **ICT 224.7**, **6.4 PPG**) - **Gabriel IN** (defender with **7.1 PPG** and **18 bonus**) - **Saka OUT** and **Reece James OUT** (both **status: d**) ### **Borderline (could be right, but watch the bandwagon effect)** - **João Pedro IN** (huge **Form 9.5**, backed by **xGI 9.25**) - **Mbeumo IN** (strong **xGI 10.67**, good form) - **Timber IN** (good **xGI 5.41**, but less bonus/PPG than Gabriel) ### **Most knee-jerk / potentially regretful** - **Gyökeres IN at massive volume** (top transfer in despite **3.3 PPG** and modest **ICT 98.0**) - **Igor Thiago OUT** (selling with **xGI 14.88** is a classic “form over fundamentals” move) - **Semenyo OUT** (strong season-long output: **5.8 PPG**, **xGI 9.88**, **ICT 176.5**) --- ## Conclusion GW26’s market is heavily shaped by **availability and recent form**, with a strong lean into **Arsenal assets** and a clear vote of confidence in **Bruno Fernandes** as the standout premium. The smartest managers will separate **genuine trend shifts** (Bruno, Gabriel, injury exits) from **crowd momentum** (the Gyökeres surge, and the mass dumping of high-xGI players like Igor Thiago). In a week like this, the edge often comes from resisting the urge to sell strong underlying numbers just because the crowd is moving.

Read Analysis
GWGameweek 26
FPL Admin
Underlying Stats2026-02-10

GW26 Underlying Stats Radar: The ICT Monsters Running the Show (Before the Hauls Arrive)

## Introduction Gameweek 26 is where **process** starts to matter more than vibes. If you’re hunting for players who are **controlling games** (and are often one good bounce away from a haul), the best place to look is the **ICT Index**—a blended signal of **Influence, Creativity, and Threat**. Below is a deep, numbers-first scan of the **top ICT performers normalized by minutes** from the provided dataset, with a focus on the profiles that scream: *“returns are coming.”* --- ## GW26: The Big Picture (ICT + xGI + Form) These are the headline metrics that help separate “hot streak” from “repeatable involvement.” | Player | Team | Cost | Selected % | Status | ICT Index | xGI | xG | xA | Form | PPG | Transfers In | Transfers Out | |---|---|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | **Erling Haaland** | Man City | 14.9 | 68.8 | a | **226.1** | **21.87** | **20.23** | 1.64 | 4.8 | **7.3** | 34,214 | 118,749 | | **Bruno Fernandes** | Man Utd | 9.8 | 36.2 | a | **224.7** | **14.60** | 8.16 | **6.44** | **8.8** | 6.4 | **306,515** | 16,802 | | **Bryan Mbeumo** | Man Utd | 8.6 | 22.2 | a | 168.0 | 10.67 | 6.98 | 3.69 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 234,967 | 41,348 | | **Bukayo Saka** | Arsenal | 9.9 | 8.2 | d | 161.4 | 10.69 | 5.58 | 5.11 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 904 | **230,152** | | **Phil Foden** | Man City | 8.2 | 10.5 | a | 150.8 | 8.48 | 4.95 | 3.53 | 0.8 | 4.7 | 2,185 | 193,089 | | **Mohamed Salah** | Liverpool | 14.0 | 14.2 | a | 143.1 | 9.26 | 5.76 | 3.50 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 2,242 | 13,737 | | **Rayan Cherki** | Man City | 6.5 | 9.4 | a | 127.7 | 7.95 | 2.16 | **5.79** | 3.2 | 4.5 | 53,111 | 72,446 | | **Jérémy Doku** | Man City | 6.4 | 2.4 | d | 123.8 | 6.06 | 1.81 | 4.25 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 110 | 12,252 | | **David Brooks** | Bournemouth | 5.0 | 0.2 | a | 85.6 | 7.21 | 4.41 | 2.80 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 643 | 383 | | **Junior Kroupi** | Bournemouth | 4.7 | 7.0 | a | 76.4 | 4.80 | 4.37 | 0.43 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 100,896 | 33,323 | | **Estêvão** | Chelsea | 6.4 | 2.4 | a | 64.7 | 4.86 | 2.76 | 2.10 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 10,139 | 38,311 | | **Samuel Chukwueze** | Fulham | 5.3 | 0.1 | a | 59.5 | 3.96 | 1.52 | 2.44 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1,227 | 1,222 | | **Charalampos Kostoulas** | Brighton | 4.8 | 0.4 | a | 39.5 | 1.92 | 1.70 | 0.22 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1,969 | 1,176 | | **Gabriel Jesus** | Arsenal | 6.4 | 0.7 | a | 32.5 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 0.18 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 23,694 | 10,919 | | **Ryan Christie** | Bournemouth | 4.9 | 0.1 | a | 34.5 | 1.70 | 1.36 | 0.34 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 365 | 153 | **How to read this for GW26:** - **ICT Index** = who is consistently involved in the game’s decisive actions. - **xGI (xG + xA)** = who is consistently involved in chances (scoring + creating). - **Form/PPG** = what has already converted into points (useful, but noisier). --- ## The GW26 “Control the Game” Shortlist (Even If Points Lag) These are the players whose **ICT + xGI** suggest they’re driving outcomes—whether or not the recent points have matched. ### 1) Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) — The complete ICT profile Bruno is the cleanest “control” pick in the dataset. - **ICT Index: 224.7** (elite, basically matching Haaland’s 226.1) - **xGI: 14.60** (massive involvement) - **xA: 6.44** (creation volume that sustains returns) - **Form: 8.8** and **PPG: 6.4** (the process is already converting) - Market signal: **306,515 transfers in** (GW26 managers are buying the engine) **GW26 takeaway:** If you want a midfielder who can win you a week through both **Influence (control)** and **Creativity (assists)**, Bruno’s profile is the gold standard here. --- ### 2) Rayan Cherki (Man City) — Creativity-led control at a mid-price Cherki’s numbers are the blueprint for a player who can explode when finishing variance swings. - **ICT Index: 127.7** (strong, especially for 6.5) - **xGI: 7.95** driven by **xA: 5.79** - **xG: 2.16** (not purely a scorer—he’s a chance architect) - **Form: 3.2** and **PPG: 4.5** (steady, not yet “mega-haul”) **Why this matters for GW26:** - High **xA** + strong **ICT** is the classic “returns can spike quickly” profile. - If you’re chasing upside without paying premium prices, Cherki’s underlying creation is the selling point. --- ### 3) Phil Foden (Man City) — Elite ICT despite cold form Foden is the poster child for “don’t overreact to recent points.” - **ICT Index: 150.8** (higher than Salah’s 143.1) - **xGI: 8.48** (healthy involvement) - **Form: 0.8** (this is exactly where many managers panic-sell) - Transfer trend: **193,089 transfers out** (a potential buy-low window) **GW26 takeaway:** The underlying involvement is still there. If you’re looking for a **minutes-normalized ICT performer** whose points haven’t followed, Foden is one of the clearest candidates. --- ### 4) David Brooks (Bournemouth) — The stealth “process” pick Brooks is the most interesting low-ownership control profile in the entire list. - **ICT Index: 85.6** (very strong for a 5.0) - **xGI: 7.21** (this is the headline) - Split: **xG 4.41** + **xA 2.80** (balanced threat + creation) - Yet: **Form 0.2** and **PPG 2.2** (points haven’t arrived) - Ownership: **0.2%** (true differential) **GW26 takeaway:** If you want a differential based on underlying numbers rather than recent returns, Brooks is a pure “bet on regression” profile. --- ## Threat vs Creativity: Who’s Driving Points (and How)? A quick way to spot “control” players is to see whether their xGI is **chance creation-led (xA)** or **finishing-led (xG)**. | Player | xGI | xG | xA | What it suggests | |---|---:|---:|---:|---| | **Haaland** | 21.87 | **20.23** | 1.64 | Pure finisher dominance (Threat-led) | | **Bruno Fernandes** | 14.60 | 8.16 | **6.44** | True controller: scoring + creating | | **Cherki** | 7.95 | 2.16 | **5.79** | Creativity-led: assist potential spikes | | **Doku** | 6.06 | 1.81 | **4.25** | Creator profile (but flagged **d**) | | **Brooks** | 7.21 | 4.41 | 2.80 | Balanced: both routes to returns | | **Kroupi** | 4.80 | **4.37** | 0.43 | Shot-led: needs goals to pay off | **GW26 interpretation:** - If you want **control + consistency**, prioritize players with meaningful **xA** *and* strong ICT (Bruno, Cherki, Brooks). - If you want **pure goal threat**, xG-heavy profiles dominate (Haaland, Kroupi). --- ## Injury/Availability Flags (Don’t Ignore for GW26) Two high-ICT names are marked as doubts: - **Bukayo Saka (d):** ICT 161.4, xGI 10.69, but **230,152 transfers out** suggests managers are reacting to the flag. - **Jérémy Doku (d):** ICT 123.8, xGI 6.06—strong creativity signal, but availability risk is real. For GW26, these are **watchlist profiles**: the underlying numbers are excellent, but the status marker changes the decision. --- ## GW26 Buying Logic: What the Data is Really Saying If you’re building a GW26 plan around underlying dominance rather than last week’s points: - **Pay for control when it’s proven:** - **Bruno Fernandes** is the standout “runs the game” pick: **224.7 ICT** + **14.60 xGI**. - **Target buy-low ICT when the crowd sells:** - **Phil Foden** has **150.8 ICT** with **0.8 form** and heavy sales—classic mispricing of short-term variance. - **Chase creation-led upside at mid-price:** - **Rayan Cherki**: **5.79 xA** is the kind of number that can turn into a multi-return week quickly. - **Differential hunters should circle one name:** - **David Brooks**: **7.21 xGI** with **0.2% ownership** is exactly the profile that wins mini-leagues when it finally clicks. --- ## Conclusion For Gameweek 26, the best edge in this dataset comes from backing players with **elite ICT involvement** and **repeatable xGI**, especially when recent points haven’t caught up. - **Bruno Fernandes** is the premier “control the match” asset. - **Foden** and **Cherki** offer the most compelling “underlying > form” cases. - **Brooks** is the standout differential: strong ICT, strong xGI, minimal ownership. If you’re playing the long game, GW26 is a perfect week to let the **ICT Index and xGI** do the talking.

Read Analysis
GWGameweek 26
FPL Admin
Wildcard Draft2026-02-10

GW26 Wildcard Draft: Form Meets xGI — A 15-Man Squad Built for the Long Haul

## Introduction Gameweek 26 is the perfect moment to stop chasing last week’s points and start building a squad that can *hold value* over time: steady starters, strong points-per-game profiles, and enough attacking upside (xGI) to keep the ceiling high. Using the candidate pool only, here’s a **long-term Wildcard Draft** that respects the **max 3 players per team** rule. --- ## The GW26+ Wildcard Squad (15 Players) ### Goalkeepers (2) - **David Raya Martín (Arsenal) — 5.9** - **106 points | 4.2 PPG | Form 5.0** - A premium-feeling pick with strong baseline output and huge backing (**35.1% selected**). - **Emiliano Martínez Romero (Aston Villa) — 5.0** - **84 points | 4.0 PPG | Form 5.0** - A stable second keeper with solid bonus involvement (**8 bonus**) and reliable season-long returns. **Why this pair works:** Raya gives you a high-floor anchor, while Martínez offers dependable cover without forcing a risky budget punt. --- ### Defenders (5) - **Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (Arsenal) — 7.1** - **135 points | 7.1 PPG | Form 5.8 | xGI 2.56** - The standout defender in the pool: elite points-per-game and genuine goal threat (**1.72 xG**). - **Marc Cucurella Saseta (Chelsea) — 6.1** - **89 points | Form 5.0 | xGI 4.35** - Massive attacking profile for a defender (**1.64 xG, 2.71 xA**). If you want upside from the back, this is it. - **Jake O'Brien (Everton) — 4.9** - **88 points | Form 5.2 | xGI 1.50** - A value enabler with real involvement at both ends (**0.83 xG, 0.67 xA**). - **Aaron Wan-Bissaka (West Ham) — 4.1** - **Form 5.2 | xA 0.73** - Budget-friendly route into West Ham with assist potential and a low entry cost. - **James Justin (Leeds) — 3.9** - **Form 6.2 | xGI 1.65** - The definition of a Wildcard bench weapon: cheap, in form, and surprisingly strong underlying attacking numbers. **Defence structure:** one premium cornerstone (Gabriel), one high-upside attacking defender (Cucurella), and three cost-controlled picks with xGI that keeps your bench “alive.” --- ### Midfielders (5) - **Bruno Borges Fernandes (Man Utd) — 9.8** - **141 points | 6.4 PPG | Form 8.8 | xGI 14.60** - The midfield engine: elite ICT (**224.7**) and the best all-round data profile here. - **Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd) — 8.6** - **103 points | 5.2 PPG | Form 7.2 | xGI 10.67** - Strong season output with a big xGI base (**6.98 xG, 3.69 xA**) to sustain returns. - **Cole Palmer (Chelsea) — 10.5** - **Form 7.8 | xGI 6.42** - A premium attacking mid with goal-heavy threat (**5.98 xG**) and a high ceiling. - **Crysencio Summerville (West Ham) — 5.6** - **Form 9.0 | xGI 4.41** - The form pick: explosive recent output and strong underlying numbers for the price. - **Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) — 8.4** - **97 points | Form 6.5 | xGI 9.01** - A balanced creator-scorer profile (**5.02 xG, 4.00 xA**) that fits long-term planning. **Midfield strategy:** double Man Utd for consistent production, a Chelsea premium, a West Ham form rocket, and a Liverpool all-rounder to diversify upside. --- ### Forwards (3) - **Erling Haaland (Man City) — 14.9** - **182 points | 7.3 PPG | xGI 21.87** - The ultimate long-term hold: unmatched expected goal volume (**20.23 xG**) and the safest captaincy base. - **João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus (Chelsea) — 7.6** - **122 points | Form 9.5 | xGI 9.25 | 23 bonus** - A form monster with bonus magnet tendencies and a price that keeps your squad flexible. - **Jarrod Bowen (West Ham) — 7.7** - **115 points | Form 6.2 | xGI 7.67 | 21 bonus** - A proven FPL scorer with strong bonus output and a reliable attacking baseline. **Forward line logic:** Haaland for captaincy security, João Pedro for form and value, Bowen for steady returns and bonus. --- ## Team Quota Check (Max 3 per club) - **Arsenal (2):** Raya, Gabriel - **Chelsea (3):** Cucurella, Palmer, João Pedro - **Man Utd (2):** Bruno, Mbeumo - **West Ham (3):** Wan-Bissaka, Summerville, Bowen - **Everton (1):** O'Brien - **Liverpool (1):** Wirtz - **Aston Villa (1):** Martínez - **Leeds (1):** Justin - **Man City (1):** Haaland --- ## How to Play This Wildcard (GW26 and beyond) - **Captaincy core:** **Haaland** is the default; **Bruno** is your high-output alternative. - **Upside levers:** **Cucurella (xGI 4.35)** and **Summerville (Form 9.0)** are the “swing” picks that can separate you from template builds. - **Bench that matters:** **Justin (3.9)** and **Wan-Bissaka (4.1)** aren’t dead slots—both carry assist/attacking indicators. --- ## Conclusion This GW26 Wildcard Draft is built to last: a captaincy foundation, multiple high-form attackers, and defenders with real xGI rather than hope. It’s balanced across clubs, respects the 3-per-team rule, and keeps enough value picks to avoid painting yourself into a corner later. If you want a long-term squad that can score now *and* stay structurally flexible, this is a data-driven blueprint worth backing.

Read Analysis
GWGameweek 26
FPL Admin
Optimal Squad2026-02-10

GW26 Scout’s Selection: Form Monsters, xGI Kings & the 3-Club Rule

## Introduction Gameweek 26 is the perfect time to lean into what the numbers are screaming: **form**, **points per game**, and **xGI** (expected goal involvement). Using only the data provided—and respecting the **max 3 players per club** rule—here’s the **Optimal 11 on paper**. --- ## GW26 Optimal 11 (Data-Driven) **Formation: 3-4-3** ### Goalkeeper - **David Raya Martín (Arsenal) – 5.9** - **106 points**, **4.2 PPG**, **5.0 form** - Massive backing: **35.1% selected**, with strong momentum (**198,708 transfers in**) - The safest blend of output + popularity, while we use Arsenal slots carefully elsewhere. --- ### Defenders (3) - **Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (Arsenal) – 7.1** - The premium defender pick: **135 points** and an elite **7.1 PPG** - Real attacking bite for a centre-back: **xGI 2.56** (xG **1.72**, xA **0.84**) - Bonus magnet: **18 bonus** - **Marc Cucurella Saseta (Chelsea) – 6.1** - The standout defender for attacking involvement: **xGI 4.35** (xG **1.64**, xA **2.71**) - Strong underlying influence: **ICT 98.7** - **Nordi Mukiele (Sunderland) – 4.6** - Excellent value profile: **112 points**, **4.9 PPG**, **5.0 form** - Balanced threat: **xGI 2.79** (xG **0.91**, xA **1.88**) - A budget-friendly way to keep the XI explosive. --- ### Midfielders (4) - **Bruno Borges Fernandes (Man Utd) – 9.8** - The midfield cornerstone: **141 points**, **6.4 PPG**, **8.8 form** - Best-in-class output indicators: **xGI 14.60** (xG **8.16**, xA **6.44**) - Bonus dominance: **25 bonus** - **Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd) – 8.6** - High-ceiling partner to Bruno: **103 points**, **5.2 PPG**, **7.2 form** - Strong dual threat: **xGI 10.67** (xG **6.98**, xA **3.69**) - Keeps the United attack central to the build. - **Cole Palmer (Chelsea) – 10.5** - Goal-heavy profile: **xG 5.98** and **xGI 6.42** - Strong current output: **7.8 form** and rising interest (**214,955 transfers in**) - Completes a powerful Chelsea triple-up without overloading the squad. - **Crysencio Summerville (West Ham) – 5.6** - The GW26 form pick: **9.0 form** (best among mids listed) - Big involvement for the price: **xGI 4.41** (xG **3.39**, xA **1.02**) - A low-owned accelerator: **2.2% selected**. --- ### Forwards (3) - **Erling Haaland (Man City) – 14.9** - Still the gold standard: **182 points**, **7.3 PPG** - Ridiculous underlying numbers: **xGI 21.87** (xG **20.23**) - Even with **4.8 form**, the baseline is unmatched. - **João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus (Chelsea) – 7.6** - The hottest forward in the dataset: **9.5 form** - Strong production: **122 points**, **4.9 PPG**, **xGI 9.25** - Bonus-friendly: **23 bonus** - **Jarrod Bowen (West Ham) – 7.7** - Reliable forward output: **115 points**, **4.6 PPG** - Strong involvement: **xGI 7.67** (xG **5.73**, xA **1.94**) - Adds a second West Ham attacker to complement Summerville. --- ## Club Quota Check (Max 3 per team) - **Chelsea (3):** João Pedro, Palmer, Cucurella ✅ - **Man Utd (2):** Bruno, Mbeumo ✅ - **Arsenal (2):** Raya, Gabriel ✅ - **West Ham (2):** Bowen, Summerville ✅ - **Sunderland (1):** Mukiele ✅ - **Man City (1):** Haaland ✅ --- ## Why this XI works (based on the data) - **Captaincy is simple:** Haaland leads the entire forward pool on **points (182)**, **PPG (7.3)** and **xGI (21.87)**. - **Midfield drives the ceiling:** Bruno (**xGI 14.60**) + Mbeumo (**xGI 10.67**) is a numbers-first double-up. - **Chelsea triple-up is justified:** João Pedro (**9.5 form**) + Palmer (**7.8 form**) + Cucurella (**xGI 4.35**) covers goals and assists from multiple angles. - **Value enablers are real:** Summerville at **5.6** with **9.0 form** and Mukiele at **4.6** with **112 points** keep the squad efficient. --- ## Conclusion This GW26 Scout’s Selection is built to win on paper: **elite xGI**, **high form**, and **proven points per game**, while staying disciplined with the **3-per-team** constraint. If you want a team that’s both explosive and logically constructed from the data, this is the blueprint.

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GWGameweek 26
FPL Admin
Captaincy2026-02-10

GW26 Captaincy Guide: Bruno’s ICT Monster vs Chelsea’s Form King — Plus the Differentials Worth the Armband

## Introduction Gameweek 26 captaincy is a classic FPL dilemma: **pay up for proven premium output** or **lean into high-upside differentials** with the right blend of form, underlying threat, and fixture difficulty. Using only the provided data (form, ICT Index, and fixture difficulty), here’s a definitive, tiered captaincy guide. --- ## Quick Fixture Context (GW26) We’re looking for captains with **strong form + elite ICT** and ideally a **favourable fixture difficulty**. Key fixtures relevant to our candidates: - **Chelsea vs Leeds (FDR 2 for Chelsea)** - **West Ham vs Man Utd (FDR 2 for Man Utd)** - **Nott'm Forest vs Wolves (FDR 2 for Nott'm Forest)** --- ## S-Tier Captains (Best blend of form + ICT + fixture) ### **Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) — S-Tier** - **Form:** 8.8 - **ICT Index:** **224.7** (best of all candidates) - **Fixture:** at West Ham (FDR **2** for Man Utd) - **Output profile:** 141 points, **6.4 points per game**, **xGI 14.60** **Why he’s S-Tier:** Bruno leads the entire pool on **ICT Index (224.7)** while also carrying premium-level consistency (**6.4 PPG**) and elite underlying involvement (**xGI 14.60**). Add a **favourable fixture rating (2)** and he becomes the most complete captaincy pick in GW26. ### **João Pedro (Chelsea) — S-Tier** - **Form:** **9.5** (best of all candidates) - **ICT Index:** 145.0 - **Fixture:** vs Leeds (FDR **2** for Chelsea) - **Output profile:** 122 points, **xGI 9.25**, 23 bonus **Why he’s S-Tier:** If you’re captaining on **current form**, João Pedro is the standout at **9.5**. The fixture is also as good as it gets (FDR **2**). While his ICT isn’t in Bruno territory, the **form + fixture** combination is exactly what you want when handing out the armband. --- ## A-Tier Captains (Strong picks, slightly more conditional) ### **Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd) — A-Tier** - **Form:** 7.2 - **ICT Index:** 168.0 - **Fixture:** at West Ham (FDR **2** for Man Utd) - **Output profile:** 103 points, **5.2 PPG**, **xGI 10.67** **Why he’s A-Tier:** Same strong fixture context as Bruno (FDR **2**), with a very healthy **ICT (168.0)** and **xGI (10.67)**. He’s just a notch below the S-tier because Bruno dominates the premium metrics and João Pedro dominates form. ### **Cole Palmer (Chelsea) — A-Tier** - **Form:** 7.8 - **ICT Index:** 72.2 - **Fixture:** vs Leeds (FDR **2** for Chelsea) - **Output profile:** 67 points, **xGI 6.42** **Why he’s A-Tier:** The fixture is excellent (FDR **2**) and the form is strong (7.8). The reason he’s not S-tier is the **lower ICT Index (72.2)** compared to the other top captaincy candidates—meaning the data suggests less all-round threat/volume. --- ## Differential Captains (High-upside, lower ownership, or less “obvious” armband) These are the picks that can **win you rank** if they hit—best used when you’re chasing or want to zig while others zag. ### **Morgan Gibbs-White (Nott'm Forest) — Differential** - **Form:** 4.8 - **ICT Index:** 135.3 - **Fixture:** vs Wolves (FDR **2** for Nott'm Forest) - **Selected by:** **3.8%** - **Output profile:** **xG 6.09**, xGI 7.98 **Why he’s a differential:** The form isn’t screaming captain, but the **fixture difficulty (2)** plus a solid **ICT (135.3)** and very low ownership (**3.8%**) makes him a genuine upside play. ### **Elliot Anderson (Nott'm Forest) — Differential** - **Form:** 5.2 - **ICT Index:** 136.6 - **Fixture:** vs Wolves (FDR **2** for Nott'm Forest) - **Selected by:** 5.8% - **Output profile:** 108 points, **4.3 PPG**, xGI 4.27 **Why he’s a differential:** Another Forest attacker with the same attractive fixture (FDR **2**) and a surprisingly strong **ICT (136.6)** for his price bracket. He’s not the “safe” captain, but he’s the kind of pick that can separate you from template armbands. ### **Jarrod Bowen (West Ham) — Differential** - **Form:** 6.2 - **ICT Index:** 148.9 - **Fixture:** vs Man Utd (FDR **3** for West Ham) - **Selected by:** 9.1% - **Output profile:** 115 points, 21 bonus **Why he’s a differential:** Bowen’s individual numbers are strong (ICT **148.9**, form **6.2**), but the fixture is less friendly (FDR **3**) and he’s facing a Man Utd side that the data rates as the “easier” side of the matchup (FDR **2** for United). He’s a bold captaincy call—more viable if you’re intentionally fading the United captains. ### **Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) — Differential** - **Form:** 6.5 - **ICT Index:** 153.1 - **Fixture:** at Sunderland (FDR **3** for Liverpool) - **Selected by:** 14.0% - **Output profile:** xGI 9.01 **Why he’s a differential:** Good form (6.5) and strong ICT (153.1), but the fixture isn’t as clean as the FDR 2 options. Still, he’s a credible alternative captain if you want to avoid the Chelsea/United concentration. ### **Matheus Cunha (Man Utd) — Differential** - **Form:** 6.2 - **ICT Index:** 129.3 - **Fixture:** at West Ham (FDR **2** for Man Utd) - **Selected by:** 8.9% - **Output profile:** xGI 7.42 **Why he’s a differential:** He benefits from the same strong fixture rating (2) as the other United options, but with lower headline metrics than Bruno/Mbeumo. If you’re chasing and want a United captain without following the crowd, he’s the left-field route. --- ## Final Recommendations (Tiered) ### **S-Tier (Captain with confidence)** - **Bruno Fernandes** — best overall: **elite ICT (224.7)** + **form (8.8)** + **FDR 2** - **João Pedro** — best form play: **form (9.5)** + **FDR 2** ### **A-Tier (Excellent, slightly more conditional)** - **Bryan Mbeumo** — strong all-rounder with **FDR 2** - **Cole Palmer** — great fixture + form, but **lower ICT** ### **Differentials (High-upside rank gainers)** - **Morgan Gibbs-White** — **3.8% owned**, **FDR 2**, solid ICT - **Elliot Anderson** — **FDR 2** + strong ICT for a punt - **Jarrod Bowen** — good numbers, but **FDR 3** makes it a bolder armband - **Florian Wirtz** — strong ICT, **FDR 3** keeps him just outside top tiers - **Matheus Cunha** — United fixture boost (FDR 2), lower baseline than the premium United picks --- ## Conclusion If you want the most data-backed captaincy route in GW26, **Bruno Fernandes** is the standout: **best ICT, strong form, and a favourable fixture rating**. If you prefer riding the hottest hand with a great home matchup, **João Pedro** is the clean alternative. For managers chasing upside, the **Nott'm Forest home fixture (FDR 2)** opens the door to genuine differential captains—especially **Gibbs-White**—while still keeping your decision grounded in the numbers.

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GWGameweek 26
FPL Admin
Chip Strategy2026-02-09

DGW26 Decision Room: Wildcard, Free Hit, or Triple Captain When Arsenal & Wolves Double

## Introduction Gameweek 26 is a classic chip week: **two Double Gameweek (DGW) teams** and a fixture list that creates clear “haves vs have-nots.” With **Arsenal** and **Wolves** playing twice, your chip choice should revolve around one question: **how many DGW players can you field without damaging your team long-term?** --- ## The DGW26 Schedule (The Only Thing That Matters) ### Double Gameweek Teams - **Arsenal** - **Wolves** ### Arsenal’s DGW26 Fixtures - **Brentford vs Arsenal** *(difficulty: Arsenal 3)* - **Wolves vs Arsenal** *(difficulty: Arsenal 2)* **Takeaway:** Arsenal have **two away matches**, but the second fixture is notably kinder (**difficulty 2**). This is the standout double. ### Wolves’ DGW26 Fixtures - **Nott'm Forest vs Wolves** *(difficulty: Wolves 3)* - **Wolves vs Arsenal** *(difficulty: Wolves 4)* **Takeaway:** Wolves get one reasonable fixture and one very tough one. Their double is more about **minutes and volume** than pure upside. --- ## Quick Read on the Single-Gameweek Landscape If you’re not using a chip, you’re effectively betting that single-gameweek fixtures can keep pace with double-gameweek volume. Notable fixtures by difficulty (lower is better): - **Man City vs Fulham** *(difficulty: Man City 2, Fulham 4)* - **Chelsea vs Leeds** *(difficulty: Chelsea 2, Leeds 3)* - **Crystal Palace vs Burnley** *(difficulty: Palace 2, Burnley 3)* More balanced/uncertain: - **Spurs vs Newcastle** *(3 vs 3)* - **Everton vs Bournemouth** *(3 vs 3)* - **Aston Villa vs Brighton** *(3 vs 3)* Trickier spots: - **Sunderland vs Liverpool** *(difficulty: Sunderland 4, Liverpool 3)* - **West Ham vs Man Utd** *(difficulty: West Ham 3, Man Utd 2)* --- ## Chip Strategy for GW26 ## 1) Free Hit (Best for “I can’t reach DGW players” squads) ### When Free Hit makes the most sense Use **Free Hit** if: - You currently have **0–2 Arsenal/Wolves players**. - Your team is locked into too many single-gameweek players and you’d need multiple transfers to catch up. - You want to **attack DGW26 hard** without committing to Wolves players long-term. ### Why it works in this specific schedule - **Arsenal’s double** includes a strong second fixture (**difficulty 2**), making them the premium DGW target. - **Wolves’ double** is mixed, so Free Hit lets you take only what you need for one week and walk away. ### Free Hit build principles (data-led) - Prioritise **Arsenal** heavily (they have the best DGW profile). - Add **select Wolves** for the extra fixture volume, but don’t overdo it given the **difficulty 4** match vs Arsenal. - Round out with strong single-gameweek fixtures, especially: - **Man City vs Fulham (2 vs 4)** - **Chelsea vs Leeds (2 vs 3)** - **Crystal Palace vs Burnley (2 vs 3)** **Verdict:** If your current squad can’t naturally get to a strong Arsenal/Wolves core, **Free Hit is the cleanest DGW26 solution**. --- ## 2) Wildcard (Best if you want DGW26 AND a new team direction) ### When Wildcard is the right call Use **Wildcard** if: - You can build a squad that benefits from **Arsenal’s double now** and still looks good after GW26. - You want to restructure around fixture quality and stability. - You’re comfortable carrying **Arsenal assets** beyond this week (their DGW is strong enough to justify it). ### The key Wildcard question: Wolves—short-term boost or long-term burden? - Wolves have a DGW, but one fixture is **difficulty 4**. - On Wildcard, you should be careful not to overload on Wolves if you don’t want them after GW26. ### Wildcard build principles (based on the fixture list) - **Lock in Arsenal coverage**: they’re the DGW team with the best overall outlook in GW26. - **Limit Wolves exposure** to what you’re happy owning beyond the double. - Keep access to strong single-gameweek upside: - **Man City at home vs Fulham (difficulty 2)** is the standout single fixture. **Verdict:** Wildcard is ideal if you’re not just “chasing the double,” but **rebuilding your team with Arsenal as a core**. --- ## 3) Triple Captain (High-upside, but only if you can back the DGW profile) ### When Triple Captain is viable in GW26 Triple Captain is best when: - You already own (or can easily buy) a premium DGW player from **Arsenal**. - You believe two fixtures—especially with one at **difficulty 2**—outweigh the best single-gameweek option. ### Arsenal vs Wolves for Triple Captain - **Arsenal**: two fixtures, including a notably favourable one (**difficulty 2**). This is the clear Triple Captain pool. - **Wolves**: the **difficulty 4** fixture makes them a far riskier Triple Captain bet. ### The main alternative: ignore the double and captain a strong single fixture - **Man City vs Fulham (2 vs 4)** is the best-looking single fixture on the slate. **Verdict:** If you’re using Triple Captain in GW26, it should be **on an Arsenal player**, because their DGW is the most captain-friendly by difficulty. --- ## Recommended Chip Path (Simple Decision Tree) - **Use Free Hit** if you can’t get to **strong Arsenal + some Wolves** without ripping up your team. - **Use Wildcard** if you want to **rebuild** and keep Arsenal as a long-term core while still benefiting from DGW26. - **Use Triple Captain** if you already have the right Arsenal captain option and your team is otherwise stable. --- ## Conclusion GW26 is defined by one thing: **Arsenal and Wolves doubling**. Arsenal’s double—especially with a **difficulty 2** fixture—makes them the priority for every chip strategy. If you can’t reach them naturally, **Free Hit** is the sharpest one-week weapon. If you want a broader reset, **Wildcard** lets you build around Arsenal while still respecting Wolves’ mixed double. And if you’re hunting maximum upside, **Triple Captain belongs with Arsenal**, not Wolves.

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GWGameweek 26
FPL Admin