GW26 Transfer Market: Arsenal Fever, Bruno’s Boom, and the Great Saka Sell-Off
FPL Admin
FPL Elite Analyst
Introduction
Gameweek 26’s transfer market has a clear story: managers are piling into Arsenal, backing Bruno Fernandes’ elite output, and chasing João Pedro’s red-hot form—while mass-selling a mix of injured flags and cooling assets. But are these moves sharp, or classic FPL knee-jerks?
The Big Picture: Who’s Being Bought vs Sold?
Most Transferred IN (Top 8)
- •Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal) — 402,536 in
- •Martín Zubimendi (Arsenal) — 342,785 in
- •Declan Rice (Arsenal) — 330,225 in
- •Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) — 310,740 in
- •João Pedro (Chelsea) — 288,746 in
- •Jurriën Timber (Arsenal) — 252,638 in
- •Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd) — 237,944 in
- •Gabriel (Arsenal) — 224,346 in
Most Transferred OUT (Top 8)
- •Harry Wilson (Fulham) — 447,682 out
- •Igor Thiago (Brentford) — 319,263 out
- •Bukayo Saka (Arsenal, status: d) — 233,811 out
- •Reece James (Chelsea, status: d) — 201,852 out
- •Phil Foden (Man City) — 195,831 out
- •Antoine Semenyo (Man City) — 155,582 out
- •James Tarkowski (Everton) — 152,950 out
- •Hugo Ekitiké (Liverpool) — 149,346 out
Trend read: This is a form + availability market. The two biggest “outs” with clear justification are Saka (d) and Reece James (d). The rest look more like performance-chasing and impatience.
The “IN” Crowd: Smart Buys or Bandwagons?
Key attacking/creative targets (Form, xGI, ICT)
| Player | Team | Cost | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Points | PPG | Selected by % | Transfers In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes | Man Utd | 9.8 | 8.8 | 14.60 | 224.7 | 141 | 6.4 | 36.3 | 310,740 |
| João Pedro | Chelsea | 7.6 | 9.5 | 9.25 | 145.0 | 122 | 4.9 | 44.2 | 288,746 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | Man Utd | 8.6 | 7.2 | 10.67 | 168.0 | 103 | 5.2 | 22.2 | 237,944 |
| Declan Rice | Arsenal | 7.5 | 3.0 | 8.17 | 164.5 | 134 | 5.6 | 35.4 | 330,225 |
| Viktor Gyökeres | Arsenal | 8.8 | 5.2 | 8.79 | 98.0 | 75 | 3.3 | 13.2 | 402,536 |
| Martín Zubimendi | Arsenal | 5.3 | 6.0 | 4.08 | 101.9 | 101 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 342,785 |
Verdicts
- •
Bruno Fernandes: Smart, not a knee-jerk
- •The profile screams “premium worth paying for”: xGI 14.60 and a monster ICT 224.7 with 6.4 PPG.
- •This looks like managers correcting an under-ownership problem rather than chasing a single haul.
- •
João Pedro: Form-chasing, but supported by numbers
- •Form 9.5 is the headline, but xGI 9.25 and 23 bonus suggest it’s not pure hype.
- •At 7.6, he’s priced like a mid-tier forward with genuine upside—still, the scale of buying can be a sign of a bandwagon.
- •
Mbeumo: Sensible mid-price momentum
- •xGI 10.67 and Form 7.2 is a strong combo.
- •Notably lower ownership (22.2%) than the most popular picks, so this could be a calculated move rather than herd behavior.
- •
Rice: A “safe points” buy, but not explosive on current form
- •PPG 5.6 and xGI 8.17 are strong, but Form 3.0 suggests managers may be buying the season-long reliability rather than recent output.
- •This is more “structure” than “spike.”
- •
Gyökeres: The biggest bandwagon risk
- •He’s the #1 transfer in (402k+), but his PPG is only 3.3 and ICT 98.0 is the lowest among the main attacking buys.
- •The underlying xGI 8.79 is decent, yet the market enthusiasm looks ahead of the actual FPL returns so far.
- •
Zubimendi: Budget enabler with respectable form
- •Form 6.0 and 4.0 PPG at 5.3 is tidy.
- •Not a ceiling pick, but could be a rational “make the funds work” transfer.
Arsenal Defensive Double-Down: Timber + Gabriel
| Player | Cost | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Points | PPG | Bonus | Selected by % | Transfers In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel | 7.1 | 5.8 | 2.56 | 79.1 | 135 | 7.1 | 18 | 42.8 | 224,346 |
| Timber | 6.4 | 4.2 | 5.41 | 104.0 | 121 | 5.0 | 7 | 31.0 | 252,638 |
Read: This looks mostly smart.
- •Gabriel is delivering elite defender value: 7.1 PPG with 18 bonus.
- •Timber has surprisingly strong attacking involvement for a defender (xGI 5.41, higher than Gabriel’s), though his bonus (7) and PPG (5.0) lag.
Potential knee-jerk angle: doubling/tripling Arsenal can become a herd move—great when it hits, painful when it doesn’t. But based on points and bonus, Gabriel especially looks justified.
The “OUT” Crowd: Rational Sells vs Panic Dumps
The flagged exits (mostly rational)
| Player | Team | Status | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Transfers Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | d | 0.8 | 10.69 | 161.4 | 233,811 |
| Reece James | Chelsea | d | 3.5 | 3.16 | 89.7 | 201,852 |
- •Saka out is understandable due to status (d) and Form 0.8, even though his xGI 10.69 is excellent. This is a classic case of: great asset, wrong week.
- •Reece James out is also logical: flagged (d) and not enough attacking output to justify holding through uncertainty.
The big non-flagged sales (more knee-jerk)
| Player | Team | Cost | Form | xGI | ICT Index | Points | PPG | Transfers Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Wilson | Fulham | 6.0 | 4.0 | 7.62 | 137.0 | 118 | 4.9 | 447,682 |
| Igor Thiago | Brentford | 7.0 | 2.8 | 14.88 | 175.5 | 131 | 5.2 | 319,263 |
| Phil Foden | Man City | 8.2 | 0.8 | 8.48 | 150.8 | 103 | 4.7 | 195,831 |
| Antoine Semenyo | Man City | 7.9 | 4.8 | 9.88 | 176.5 | 139 | 5.8 | 155,582 |
| Hugo Ekitiké | Liverpool | 8.9 | 4.5 | 9.95 | 126.4 | 102 | 4.6 | 149,346 |
| James Tarkowski | Everton | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.76 | 100.3 | 116 | 4.6 | 152,950 |
Verdicts
- •
Harry Wilson (447k out): likely a herd move
- •His Form 4.0 isn’t disastrous, and xGI 7.62 with 4.9 PPG is perfectly playable at 6.0.
- •This looks like managers funding the popular buys rather than reacting to a collapse.
- •
Igor Thiago: the numbers say “don’t panic”
- •xGI 14.88 and ICT 175.5 are elite, even if Form 2.8 is dragging sentiment.
- •Selling a forward with that underlying output can easily be a knee-jerk—unless managers are responding to something not shown here.
- •
Foden: form-driven exit
- •Form 0.8 explains the sales, but xGI 8.48 and ICT 150.8 suggest there’s still a strong base.
- •This is a classic “sell low” risk.
- •
Semenyo: surprising sell given the season output
- •139 points, 5.8 PPG, xGI 9.88, ICT 176.5—this is not a profile that screams urgent sale.
- •Likely a reallocation to Bruno/João Pedro/Arsenal rather than a data-backed downgrade.
- •
Ekitiké: steady, not spectacular—sale is understandable but not mandatory
- •xGI 9.95 is solid, Form 4.5 is fine. This feels like a “make room” transfer.
- •
Tarkowski: budget defender churn
- •4.6 PPG is respectable. This looks like managers chasing Arsenal defensive points/bonus instead.
Smart Trend vs Knee-Jerk: Quick Summary
Smart / Data-supported
- •Bruno Fernandes IN (elite xGI 14.60, ICT 224.7, 6.4 PPG)
- •Gabriel IN (defender with 7.1 PPG and 18 bonus)
- •Saka OUT and Reece James OUT (both status: d)
Borderline (could be right, but watch the bandwagon effect)
- •João Pedro IN (huge Form 9.5, backed by xGI 9.25)
- •Mbeumo IN (strong xGI 10.67, good form)
- •Timber IN (good xGI 5.41, but less bonus/PPG than Gabriel)
Most knee-jerk / potentially regretful
- •Gyökeres IN at massive volume (top transfer in despite 3.3 PPG and modest ICT 98.0)
- •Igor Thiago OUT (selling with xGI 14.88 is a classic “form over fundamentals” move)
- •Semenyo OUT (strong season-long output: 5.8 PPG, xGI 9.88, ICT 176.5)
Conclusion
GW26’s market is heavily shaped by availability and recent form, with a strong lean into Arsenal assets and a clear vote of confidence in Bruno Fernandes as the standout premium. The smartest managers will separate genuine trend shifts (Bruno, Gabriel, injury exits) from crowd momentum (the Gyökeres surge, and the mass dumping of high-xGI players like Igor Thiago). In a week like this, the edge often comes from resisting the urge to sell strong underlying numbers just because the crowd is moving.