GW21 Scout’s Selection: The xGI Defence-Core + Haaland Hammer (Data-Built Optimal 11)

Introduction

Gameweek 21 is a perfect moment to lean into what the numbers are screaming: high-minute reliability, elite ICT involvement, and value per million. Using only the provided data, here’s an “optimal on paper” XI built around the best-performing assets across positions—balancing raw points with form, underlying indicators (xG/xA), and season value.

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Scout’s Selection: Optimal 11 (GW21)

Goalkeeper

•Robin Roefs (£4.9) — 93 pts | 7 CS | 5.8 form | 19.0 value | 1800 mins

The standout keeper pick on pure efficiency: best value_season (19.0) of the listed GKs, strong form, and full minutes. If you want an on-paper FPL “cheat code” in goal, it’s Roefs.

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Defenders (Back 4)

•Jurriën Timber (£6.3) — 98 pts | 8 CS | 94.7 ICT | xG 4.06 | 4 assists

Timber is the definition of an attacking defender by data: huge threat (307.0) and the best xG (4.06) among the top defenders listed.

•Marc Guéhi (£5.3) — 99 pts | 81.2 ICT | 2G/4A | xG 1.94 | xA 1.48

A brilliantly rounded profile: high creativity (133.8) plus real output. Also a massive ownership marker (39.7%)—a “safe” pick without being passive.

•Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (£6.6) — 106 pts | 3G/2A | 5.0 form | 16.1 value

The top-scoring defender in the dataset. Strong goal threat (3 goals) with solid underlying contribution (xG 1.42, xA 0.71).

•James Tarkowski (£5.7) — 96 pts | 8 CS | 1800 mins | 4.6 form | 16.8 value

The minutes monster of the defensive pool here. 1800 minutes, 8 clean sheets, and strong value—ideal for GW21 stability.

Why this defence works: it’s a blend of clean-sheet base (Tarkowski/Gabriel/Timber) plus attacking upside (Timber’s xG, Guéhi’s creativity, Gabriel’s goal output).

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Midfielders (4)

•Declan Rice (£7.2) — 119 pts | 7.0 form | 4G/7A | 127.4 ICT | xA 3.63

The most complete mid in the dataset: elite creativity (551.9), consistent returns, and a form line that screams “captainable in the right week.”

•Antoine Semenyo (£7.6) — 114 pts | 9G/5A | 146.0 ICT | xG 6.53 | 44.3% owned

A high-threat midfielder with genuine scoring volume: 597.0 threat and the strongest xG in this midfield list. Big ownership also makes him a major rank-definer.

•Bruno Guimarães (£7.1) — 106 pts | 7G/4A | 123.8 ICT | 14.9 value

Strong value, strong minutes, and real goal output for his price point. A balanced pick when you want both floor and ceiling.

•Morgan Rogers (£7.6) — 98 pts | 7.4 form | 7G/4A | 1777 mins

The form pick: 7.4 is the best in this midfield set. Excellent minutes security and enough threat to keep the points flowing.

Midfield logic: two engines with elite involvement (Rice + Bruno G) plus two high-upside attackers by threat/form (Semenyo + Rogers).

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Forwards (2)

•Erling Haaland (£15.1) — 157 pts | 19G/4A | 188.4 ICT | xG 16.94 | 74.2% owned

The premium cornerstone. Highest points, highest threat (956.0), and a monstrous xG profile. On paper, he’s non-negotiable.

•Igor Thiago (£7.0) — 108 pts | 14G | 5.6 form | 15.4 value | xG 11.11

The optimal partner striker: elite value, massive goal volume, and a strong xG base. A classic “premium + value striker” structure.

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Captaincy (Data-First)

•Captain: Erling Haaland — highest total points (157), best threat (956.0), and elite xG (16.94).

•Vice-captain: Declan Rice — best midfielder for combined production + form (119 points, 7.0 form, 7 assists).

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The GW21 Optimal XI (Quick View)

GK: Roefs

DEF: Timber, Guéhi, Gabriel, Tarkowski

MID: Rice, Semenyo, Bruno Guimarães, Rogers

FWD: Haaland (C), Igor Thiago

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Conclusion

This GW21 Scout’s Selection is built to win on paper: maximum points producers, supported by strong minutes, form, and underlying numbers (notably Timber’s xG, Semenyo’s threat, and Haaland’s everything). If you’re aiming for a data-driven “set and trust” XI, this is the blueprint—heavy on reliable starters, packed with upside, and anchored by the game’s most dominant forward.