GW21 Transfer Deadline: Rice & Rogers Heat Up, Watkins’ xG Screams ‘Buy’ — Who’s Next to Pop?
FPL Admin
FPL Elite Analyst
Introduction
Price changes are the quiet swing factor in FPL—move early and you bank team value; move late and you pay the “deadline tax.” With Gameweek 21 approaching, the market has already spoken: a cluster of high-form, high-usage picks are drawing managers in, and the numbers explain why.
Below is your Transfer Deadline-style read on who’s rising, who’s likely next, and what the data says about why.
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Tonight’s Market Movers (GW21): Who Already Rose
These players have already increased by +£0.1 this event (cost_change_event = 1). The key question: are they still worth chasing after the rise?
Declan Rice (£7.2m, +£0.1) — The “everything” midfielder
Rice is a full-category stat monster right now.
Why managers are buying: he combines security of minutes with genuine attacking involvement. The creativity (551.9) and influence (518.2) spike screams “hub,” and managers love a midfielder who can tick along with assists while still carrying goal threat.
GW21 price pressure: still strong—his ownership is already substantial, and his stat profile is the exact blend that fuels sustained demand.
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Morgan Rogers (£7.6m, +£0.1) — Form player with serious threat
Rogers is the classic bandwagon profile: high form, heavy minutes, and standout threat.
Why managers are buying: the market loves a midfielder who’s producing like a forward. Even with xG 3.22 and xA 2.27, he’s delivering end product—enough to keep the hype train moving.
GW21 price pressure: very real. With 30.6% ownership, even a small additional wave of buyers can nudge another rise.
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Ollie Watkins (£8.7m, +£0.1) — The xG siren is loud
Watkins’ underlying numbers are the headline.
Why managers are buying: that xG 7.73 plus Threat 560.0 is basically an FPL “BUY” notification. He’s getting chances at a rate managers trust.
GW21 price pressure: enormous upside. Lower ownership can mean fewer automatic buys, but it also means there’s room for a fast surge if the crowd pivots.
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Gabriel (£6.6m, +£0.1) — Set-piece danger + clean sheet platform
A defender who stacks routes to points is always market-friendly.
Why managers are buying: the combo of clean sheets plus real goal threat (and proven goals scored) makes him feel like a two-position asset.
GW21 price pressure: sustained—26.8% ownership provides momentum, and defenders who can score tend to keep attracting transfers.
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Jordan Pickford (£5.6m, +£0.1) — Safe minutes, steady points
Not flashy, but the market loves a dependable goalkeeper when value looks right.
Why managers are buying: 1800 minutes is the definition of security, and 8 clean sheets provides a stable weekly floor.
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Robin Roefs (£4.9m, +£0.1) — The budget keeper driving team value
This is the pure “team value” play of the list.
Why managers are buying: at £4.9m, the value_season 19.0 is exactly what early movers chase—cheap, nailed, and returning.
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Bruno Guimarães (£7.1m, +£0.1) — The all-action mid with end product
Bruno brings output plus strong all-round metrics.
Why managers are buying: he’s not just “involved”—he’s delivering. Strong influence (510.4) and creativity (430.8) support ongoing returns.
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Malick Thiaw (£5.1m, +£0.1) — Differential defender with goal threat
Thiaw is the kind of low-owned riser that sneaks up on managers.
Why managers are buying: defenders who score create instant transfer spikes, and the 3 goals plus xG 1.91 makes it feel repeatable.
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Who Looks Most Likely to Rise Again (GW21 Watchlist)
Based strictly on the signals in this data—form, minutes security, and “bandwagon shape” (ownership + standout metrics)—these are the names most primed to keep pushing:
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Who Could Fall (and Why)
This dataset is dominated by risers, but there’s one glaring “dead slot” profile that can become a sell-off magnet if managers need pennies.
Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.1m) — Zero minutes, zero points
If managers are holding a non-playing bench keeper and pivoting to a value option (like Roefs at £4.9m), ultra-low involvement assets can become price drift candidates simply because they offer no utility.
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Quick GW21 Transfer Triage (If You’re On the Fence)
Use this as a simple “deadline desk” rule:
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Conclusion
The GW21 market is rewarding minutes certainty and repeatable underlying numbers. Rice and Rogers are the momentum magnets, Watkins is the “buy before the brace” type of profile, and Roefs is the pure team-value accelerator.
If you’re trying to win the season-long game—not just this week—moving ahead of the next price swing can be the difference between affording your dream squad later… or staring at it £0.2m short.