GW28 Unlucky XI: The xGI Monsters Who Owe Us a Haul (Martinelli, Watkins & Maatsen)
FPL Admin
FPL Elite Analyst
Introduction
FPL is brutal when the eye test says “he’s everywhere” but the points say “2”. For Gameweek 28, we’re hunting the most unlucky assets: players with strong Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) but underwhelming actual returns so far. When xGI stays high, the points usually follow — and that’s where the next massive haul often comes from.
The headline: xGI-rich, points-poor picks for GW28
These are the standouts from the data — players generating the right chances (xGI) but not converting it into FPL joy yet.
Quick comparison table (xGI vs output indicators)
| Player | Team | Cost | Selected By | Points | Form | ICT Index | xGI | Why they’re “unlucky” |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | 8.6 | 9.0% | 97 | 2.8 | 133.5 | 10.72 | Elite xGI + huge ICT, but points not matching the volume |
| Gabriel Martinelli | Arsenal | 6.8 | 1.0% | 41 | 2.0 | 58.7 | 4.32 | Strong xGI for the price, yet minimal points return |
| Ian Maatsen | Aston Villa | 4.2 | 0.6% | 38 | 3.6 | 65.2 | 2.59 | Attacking full-back numbers without the payoff |
| Riccardo Calafiori | Arsenal | 5.6 | 6.3% | 86 | 1.5 | 56.8 | 3.17 | Big xGI for a defender, but returns haven’t landed |
| Jadon Sancho | Aston Villa | 5.8 | 0.2% | 24 | 2.0 | 46.5 | 2.02 | Creative + goal threat in the data, points lagging |
GW28’s most “due” for a massive haul
1) Ollie Watkins (AVL) — the xGI king who’s about to explode
Watkins is the clearest “how is he not hauling?” profile in the dataset:
- •xGI: 10.72 (best here by a mile)
- •ICT Index: 133.5 (screams involvement and threat)
- •Points: 97 with Form: 2.8 — the output hasn’t kept pace with the underlying volume
GW28 prediction: If you’re looking for the classic “one week he scores 13+ and everyone pretends they always owned him” candidate, this is it. The data says the chances are coming — the finishing/assists are the missing piece.
FPL angle: A high-upside forward with strong underlying involvement is exactly the profile that can flip mini-leagues in one gameweek.
2) Gabriel Martinelli (ARS) — low ownership, high xGI, huge upside
Martinelli is quietly one of the most interesting “unlucky” attackers:
- •xGI: 4.32
- •ICT Index: 58.7
- •Selected by: 1.0% (a genuine differential)
- •Points: 41 and Form: 2.0 — not reflecting the xGI at all
GW28 prediction: A classic differential haul candidate. When a player carries this level of xGI at tiny ownership, one big return can be a rank rocket.
3) Ian Maatsen (AVL) — budget defender with attacker-level involvement
Maatsen’s numbers are the kind that usually become FPL folklore after a random 12-pointer:
- •Cost: 4.2
- •xGI: 2.59
- •ICT Index: 65.2 (very strong)
- •Points: 38 — the output hasn’t matched the attacking promise
GW28 prediction: A defender with this xGI profile is always one clean sheet + attacking return away from a monster score.
The “unlucky defenders” worth monitoring
Defenders with meaningful xGI are gold because a single goal/assist can stack with clean-sheet points.
Riccardo Calafiori (ARS)
- •xGI: 3.17 (massive for a defender)
- •ICT Index: 56.8
- •Points: 86 but Form: 1.5 suggests recent returns haven’t arrived
William Saliba (ARS)
- •xGI: 1.23
- •ICT Index: 52.9
- •Points: 86 with Form: 2.8 — steady, but still under-delivering vs involvement
GW28 prediction: If Arsenal defenders are getting these levels of xGI, the next set-piece connection could be the difference between a 6 and a 15.
Deep differentials (high risk, high reward)
These are for managers chasing upside and willing to embrace volatility.
- •
Jadon Sancho (AVL)
- •xGI: 2.02, ICT: 46.5, Selected by: 0.2%
- •The data hints at returns that simply haven’t shown up yet.
- •
Douglas Luiz (AVL)
- •xGI: 1.46, ICT: 39.3, Selected by: 0.1%
- •Underlying involvement suggests he’s capable of popping up with points despite low ownership.
Conclusion
For Gameweek 28, the data-driven “unlucky” shortlist is clear: Watkins is the premium xGI monster most likely to deliver a statement haul, while Martinelli offers the kind of low-owned upside that can transform rank in a single week. If you want value, Maatsen (and even Calafiori) bring rare attacking involvement for their price points.
When xGI stays high, patience often gets rewarded — and GW28 looks like the perfect time for these numbers to finally turn into points.