GW28 Transfer Market: O’Reilly’s Budget Boom, Van Dijk’s Safety Net — and Chelsea’s Mass Sell-Off
FPL Admin
FPL Elite Analyst
Introduction
Gameweek 28’s transfer market has a clear theme: managers are buying form and perceived security (Liverpool defence, City value picks), while dumping flagged/injured assets and a chunk of Chelsea players. But are these moves calculated… or classic knee-jerk?
Below is a data-led look at the most transferred IN and OUT players, plus whether the crowd is making smart calls.
Most Transferred IN (GW28)
Top movers in
| Player | Team | Price | Form | Points | Selected By % | Transfers In | xGI | ICT Index | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico O'Reilly | Man City | 5.0 | 8.2 | 117 | 6.8 | 218,881 | 4.61 | 108.0 | a |
| Virgil van Dijk | Liverpool | 6.0 | 8.0 | 122 | 24.7 | 161,952 | 2.69 | 123.3 | a |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | Liverpool | 6.8 | 4.0 | 100 | 7.4 | 81,907 | 7.61 | 171.0 | a |
| Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues | Brentford | 7.1 | 2.6 | 135 | 32.0 | 76,896 | 16.61 | 185.8 | a |
| Antoine Semenyo | Man City | 8.0 | 6.8 | 157 | 52.1 | 70,028 | 10.99 | 195.2 | a |
| James Hill | Bournemouth | 4.0 | 7.2 | 65 | 5.1 | 56,860 | 1.05 | 46.1 | a |
| Harry Wilson | Fulham | 5.9 | 3.5 | 128 | 20.0 | 48,645 | 8.16 | 148.7 | a |
| João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus | Chelsea | 7.7 | 9.4 | 139 | 47.7 | 47,748 | 11.71 | 165.3 | a |
Smart buys vs knee-jerk: quick verdicts
- •
Nico O’Reilly (218,881 in) — Mostly smart (value + form)
- •The appeal is obvious: £5.0 with 8.2 form and 4.5 points per game.
- •His xGI (4.61) isn’t elite, but at this price the market is buying budget flexibility and recent output.
- •
Virgil van Dijk (161,952 in) — Smart, “boring” points chasing
- •8.0 form, 122 points, and a strong bonus (9) profile.
- •Attacking upside is modest (xGI 2.69), but this is a classic “pay for reliability” move.
- •
Dominik Szoboszlai (81,907 in) — Potentially smart, but form-chasing risk
- •The underlying numbers are loud: xGI 7.61 and ICT 171.0.
- •The concern: form 4.0 suggests managers are buying the idea of returns more than current delivery.
- •
Igor Thiago (76,896 in) — Data says smart, form says caution
- •Monster underlying output: xGI 16.61 and xG 15.06.
- •But form 2.6 is a red flag for immediate payoff. This looks like a longer-horizon bet rather than a short-term bandwagon.
- •
Antoine Semenyo (70,028 in) — Smart, but ownership makes it defensive
- •Already 52.1% owned; buying now is often about protecting rank.
- •Strong blend: 157 points, form 6.8, ICT 195.2, xGI 10.99.
- •
James Hill (56,860 in) — Likely a pure enabler move
- •£4.0 with 7.2 form is eye-catching, but the attacking data is tiny (xGI 1.05, ICT 46.1).
- •This screams bench fodder to fund upgrades elsewhere.
- •
Harry Wilson (48,645 in) — Borderline knee-jerk
- •Solid season: 128 points, xGI 8.16.
- •But form 3.5 suggests this is not driven by immediate hot streak—more a steady pick that managers are rotating into.
- •
João Pedro (47,748 in) — Smart on form, but market is split
- •Elite short-term signal: form 9.4, plus xGI 11.71 and bonus 25.
- •However, he also appears among the most transferred out (more on that below), implying wildcard churn, structure changes, or late reversals.
Most Transferred OUT (GW28)
Top movers out
| Player | Team | Price | Form | Points | Selected By % | Transfers Out | xGI | ICT Index | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández | Chelsea | 6.8 | 4.4 | 120 | 21.5 | 122,487 | 15.03 | 193.0 | a |
| Trevoh Chalobah | Chelsea | 5.8 | 3.2 | 126 | 23.0 | 119,588 | 1.89 | 88.5 | a |
| Jurriën Timber | Arsenal | 6.4 | 3.0 | 127 | 29.2 | 80,753 | 5.74 | 117.4 | a |
| Bruno Guimarães | Newcastle | 6.9 | 2.8 | 134 | 7.3 | 79,276 | 8.44 | 168.3 | i |
| Marc Guéhi | Man City | 5.2 | 3.8 | 126 | 37.1 | 67,602 | 4.67 | 109.9 | a |
| João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus | Chelsea | 7.7 | 9.4 | 139 | 47.7 | 57,050 | 11.71 | 165.3 | a |
| Marc Cucurella | Chelsea | 6.1 | 3.2 | 90 | 15.0 | 53,918 | 4.37 | 100.8 | i |
| Maxence Lacroix | Crystal Palace | 5.1 | 3.4 | 116 | 5.4 | 51,951 | 2.57 | 87.7 | d |
Smart sells vs knee-jerk: quick verdicts
- •
Enzo Fernández (122,487 out) — Leans knee-jerk (data is strong)
- •This is the standout “are we sure?” sale.
- •Despite only 4.4 form, his underlying output is huge: xGI 15.03 and ICT 193.0.
- •Selling an available (status a) player with these numbers often signals impatience or a restructure to fit other premiums.
- •
Trevoh Chalobah (119,588 out) — Probably smart
- •Form 3.2, low attacking threat (xGI 1.89), and managers appear to be moving away from Chelsea defence.
- •
Jurriën Timber (80,753 out) — Reasonable sell
- •Form 3.0 with decent-ish xGI 5.74, but at £6.4 managers may prefer clearer value elsewhere.
- •
Bruno Guimarães (79,276 out) — Smart (injury-driven)
- •Status is i. Even with strong season production (134 points, PPG 5.8, xGI 8.44), this is a pragmatic exit.
- •
Marc Guéhi (67,602 out) — Could be knee-jerk
- •He’s available, has 126 points and 5.0 PPG.
- •Not explosive (xGI 4.67), but dumping a steady scorer can backfire unless it funds a major upgrade.
- •
João Pedro (57,050 out) — Classic market contradiction
- •With 9.4 form and xGI 11.71, selling looks counterintuitive.
- •The fact he’s also heavily bought suggests team-structure turbulence (wildcards, late switches, or managers moving funds).
- •
Marc Cucurella (53,918 out) — Smart (injury-driven)
- •Status i plus modest output (90 points, 3.8 PPG).
- •
Maxence Lacroix (51,951 out) — Smart (doubtful)
- •Status d makes this a sensible risk-off move.
Head-to-Head: The Big Talking Points
Liverpool magnet: Van Dijk vs Szoboszlai
| Player | Price | Form | Points | xGI | ICT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Dijk | 6.0 | 8.0 | 122 | 2.69 | 123.3 |
| Szoboszlai | 6.8 | 4.0 | 100 | 7.61 | 171.0 |
- •Van Dijk is the form-and-stability pick.
- •Szoboszlai is the underlying-stats pick (higher ceiling on paper), but managers buying now are accepting short-term volatility.
The Chelsea chaos: Enzo OUT while João Pedro IN (and OUT)
| Player | Form | Points | xGI | ICT | Net Transfer Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández | 4.4 | 120 | 15.03 | 193.0 | Heavy OUT |
| João Pedro | 9.4 | 139 | 11.71 | 165.3 | Both IN and OUT |
- •Enzo’s sale looks like the most knee-jerk move of the week given his elite xGI/ICT.
- •João Pedro is the opposite: the data supports buying, but the split transfer flow suggests managers are tinkering aggressively.
Conclusion
GW28’s transfer market is a mix of sharp value hunting (O’Reilly, Hill as an enabler), safe-point consolidation (Van Dijk), and injury housekeeping (Bruno, Cucurella, Lacroix). The biggest red flag is the mass sale of Enzo Fernández despite standout underlying numbers—this feels more like impatience or restructuring than a data-backed exit.
If you’re following the crowd this week, make sure you know why: are you buying form, fixtures-by-proxy, team structure, or just last week’s points?