GW21 Transfer Deadline: The Price Surge Squad (and Who You’ll Regret Ignoring)
FPL Admin
FPL Elite Analyst
Introduction
The GW21 transfer market is moving fast — and it’s not random. Managers are piling into a clear set of profiles: high-value starters, strong recent form, and players whose underlying numbers hint there’s more to come. Below is your Transfer Deadline briefing on who looks primed for further rises, who could cool off, and how to react before the next price swing.
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The GW21 Risers: Who’s driving the market (and why)
These are the names already gaining value this event (+0.1), and the data explains the rush.
Morgan Rogers (£7.6m) — Form magnet with serious threat
Why managers are buying: Rogers is the classic price-riser cocktail: high minutes, hot form, and a massive Threat profile for a midfielder. Even with xG at 3.22, the market is betting that his role and shot volume keep returns coming. When a mid is producing *and* passes the eye test statistically (Threat/ICT), the crowd piles in.
GW21 takeaway: If you don’t own him, you’re immediately exposed to both points and price.
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Declan Rice (£7.2m) — The rare “everything” midfielder
Why managers are buying: Rice is doing it via both routes: chance creation and end product. That Creativity 551.9 is a billboard for consistent assist potential, while his overall ICT dominance screams reliability.
GW21 takeaway: This is a “set-and-forget” style midfielder profile — and the market is rewarding certainty.
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Gabriel (£6.6m) — Defensive points + set-piece punch
Why managers are buying: Gabriel offers the dream combo: clean-sheet access plus real goal threat for a defender. His 3 goals alongside 8 clean sheets makes him feel like two assets in one.
GW21 takeaway: If managers keep prioritising defenders with genuine attacking upside, Gabriel can continue creeping upward.
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Ollie Watkins (£8.7m) — xG says “more is coming”
Why managers are buying: Watkins is being bought on *process*. That 560 Threat and 7.73 xG combo is the sort of profile managers chase when hunting the next scoring run. Even at £8.7m, the underlying numbers are premium-forward territory.
GW21 takeaway: When forwards lead the table in Threat, they rarely stay under-owned for long.
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Bruno Guimarães (£7.1m) — The balanced mid with strong value
Why managers are buying: Bruno isn’t relying on one route to points — he’s contributing across the board. With a strong ICT and double-digit goal involvement, he looks like a safe GW21 buy for managers upgrading a mid slot without jumping to a premium.
GW21 takeaway: This is a classic “steady riser” profile — especially when managers want points without volatility.
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Jordan Pickford (£5.6m) & Robin Roefs (£4.9m) — The keeper market is heating up
Pickford
Roefs
Why managers are buying: This looks like a mini-trend: managers reallocating money by securing a reliable goalkeeper. Roefs in particular stands out as a budget enabler with elite value per £m.
GW21 takeaway: If you’re restructuring funds, these are the kinds of goalkeepers the market buys en masse.
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Malick Thiaw (£5.1m) — The low-owned differential riser
Why managers are buying: Low-owned defenders don’t rise unless there’s a clear hook. Here it’s the blend of goal output and a meaningful Threat number for a defender, at a price that still feels accessible.
GW21 takeaway: Differentials that start trending can jump quickly — especially when their stats suggest it’s not a fluke.
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Who could fall next? (and why the market might cool)
Price falls are usually driven by minutes risk, dead spots in squads, or poor form vs alternatives. From this dataset, two players stand out as the most *vulnerable to being sold off*.
David Raya (£6.0m) — Strong season, but weak short-term pull
Why a fall is plausible: Raya’s season totals are great, but the market is reactive — and 2.8 form is the kind of figure that triggers keeper switches, especially when alternatives like Roefs (value 19.0) and Pickford (8 CS) are also being bought.
GW21 watch: If casual managers start mass-selling a highly owned keeper, even good season stats won’t prevent a dip.
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Kepa (£4.1m) — Zero minutes, zero patience
Why a fall is plausible: Non-playing assets get binned quickly when managers want active bench options. Even at low ownership, he offers no on-pitch justification to hold.
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GW21 Transfer Triage: What to do before the next swing
If you’re protecting team value:
If you’re chasing upside:
If you need structure and stability:
If you want a differential with a reason:
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Conclusion
GW21’s market tells a clear story: managers are buying form plus security — and paying extra for players with numbers that hint at sustained returns. If you’re late to the Rogers/Rice wave, you risk losing value quickly, while Watkins is the classic “buy before the haul” forward based on elite underlying threat. Watch the highly owned, low-form spots like Raya too — when the crowd turns, price drops can be just as fast as rises.