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Injury Report 2026-02-04

GW25 Physio Room: Saka, Bruno & Van de Ven Flags — What the Mass Sell-Off Means (and Who to Buy)

FPL Admin

FPL Elite Analyst

Introduction

Gameweek 25 is shaping up to be a classic FPL triage week: several high-ownership, heavily-sold assets are carrying flags, and the market is already reacting. Below is your Physio Room round-up of the most impactful flagged players (injured/doubtful), what the numbers say about their value, and practical replacement routes.

The Big Flags (High Ownership + High Impact)

Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) — Status: d

  • •Ownership: 13.0%
  • •Price: 10.0
  • •Transfers out: 285,285
  • •Output: 101 points | 4.8 PPG | Form 1.5
  • •Underlying: xGI 10.69 (xG 5.58 + xA 5.11) | ICT 161.4

FPL read: Even with a low recent form (1.5), Saka’s underlying numbers remain elite (xGI 10.69 with a top-tier ICT). The mass sales suggest managers are not waiting for clarity.

Replacement ideas (data-led from this list):

  • •Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle) — only if you’re comfortable with another flag: 120 points, 5.7 PPG, xGI 6.98, ICT 149.1.
  • •Rayan Cherki (Man City) — 88 points, 4.6 PPG, xGI 7.85 (driven by xA 5.77), strong creativity profile.

If you’re selling Saka, prioritize a replacement with either high PPG (immediate returns) or high xGI (sustainable threat). From the available data, Bruno and Cherki are the closest statistical matches.

Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle) — Status: d

  • •Ownership: 14.8%
  • •Price: 7.1
  • •Transfers out: 280,964
  • •Output: 120 points | 5.7 PPG | Form 3.5
  • •Underlying: xGI 6.98 (xG 4.03 + xA 2.95) | Bonus 18 | ICT 149.1

FPL read: Bruno is the standout in this injury list for points, PPG, and bonus. The flag is the only reason you’d move him—because on performance, he’s a hold.

Replacement ideas (from this list):

  • •Rayan Cherki (Man City) — a strong like-for-like in terms of involvement: xGI 7.85 and solid PPG (4.6).
  • •Jack Grealish (Everton) — flagged (i), but if/when fit: xGI 5.41, ICT 129.2, 12 bonus.

Micky van de Ven (Spurs) — Status: d

  • •Ownership: 25.1% (the biggest ownership here)
  • •Price: 4.5
  • •Transfers out: 136,402
  • •Output: 96 points | 4.4 PPG | Form 1.8
  • •Underlying: xGI 2.81 | ICT 76.5

FPL read: Van de Ven is a classic value defender: strong PPG for the price and massive ownership. With a doubt flag and heavy sales, he’s a key GW25 decision point.

Replacement ideas (from this list):

  • •Patrick Dorgu (Man Utd) — flagged (i), but notable upside profile: form 7.0, xGI 3.28, price 4.4.
  • •Pedro Porro (Spurs) — flagged (i), but if you’re planning ahead: xA 2.81 and xGI 3.29 show attacking potential.

If you need a straight swap at similar cost, Dorgu (4.4) is the closest price point with encouraging attacking xGI.

Secondary Flags Worth Monitoring

Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) — Status: d

  • •Ownership: 10.3%
  • •Price: 8.7
  • •Transfers out: 198,698
  • •Underlying: xG 9.40 | xGI 10.31 | 91 points | 4.0 PPG

FPL read: Watkins’ underlying goal threat is huge (xG 9.40). If he’s out, you’re losing a high-volume finisher profile.

Replacement ideas (from this list):

  • •Richarlison (Spurs) — flagged (i), but has striker-like numbers: xG 4.80, xGI 6.02.

Spurs Cluster: Multiple Flags, Shared Risk

Spurs appear repeatedly in the flagged list:

  • •Van de Ven (d) — 25.1% owned
  • •Porro (i) — 10.7% owned
  • •Kudus (i) — 10.1% owned
  • •Richarlison (i) — 5.7% owned

FPL read: If you’re carrying multiple Spurs assets, GW25 may require a risk audit—one late team news swing could hit several slots at once.

Quick GW25 Action Checklist

  • •Prioritize fixing the biggest ownership risk: Van de Ven (25.1%) is the most likely to hurt rank if he becomes a confirmed miss.
  • •Treat Saka/Bruno as “hold if fit, sell if uncertain”: both have strong season-long output and underlying data, but the transfer market is already moving.
  • •Use xGI to guide replacements: from the available options, Cherki (xGI 7.85) and Bruno (xGI 6.98) are the standout midfield profiles.

Conclusion

GW25 is less about chasing differentials and more about protecting your team structure from flagged, high-ownership landmines. If you’re forced into moves, lean on the numbers: Saka’s xGI (10.69) and Bruno’s PPG (5.7) show why they’re painful sells, while Cherki’s creativity-driven xGI (7.85) makes him the most compelling pivot from the data provided. Keep your transfers disciplined—and let the flags, ownership, and xGI do the talking.