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Unlucky Players 2026-02-02

GW25 Unlucky XI: The xGI Monsters Who Owe Us a Massive FPL Haul

FPL Admin

FPL Elite Analyst

Introduction

FPL is cruel: sometimes the points follow the performances… and sometimes they don’t. For Gameweek 25, we’re hunting the league’s most “unlucky” picks — players with strong Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) but weak actual output so far. When xGI stays high, the hauls usually arrive.

The headline “due” picks for GW25 (high xGI, low points)

These are the standout under-performers by underlying involvement — the types who can flip from frustration to double-digit returns quickly.

Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal) — xGI 7.87 | 63 pts | ICT 86.4 | £8.7

If you’re looking for the biggest “when it clicks, it really clicks” profile, it’s here.

  • •xGI: 7.87 (elite)
  • •Expected goals: 6.96 (the chances are there)
  • •Bonus: 5 (a strong sign he can convert good games into extra points)
  • •Selected by: 9.5% (still not fully “template”)

GW25 prediction: Gyökeres is the prime candidate for a massive haul. The xGI and ICT suggest sustained threat — the returns are lagging, not the performances.

Riccardo Calafiori (Arsenal) — xGI 3.11 | 78 pts | ICT 55.3 | £5.6

This is one of the most eye-catching “unlucky” profiles in the data.

  • •xGI: 3.11 with expected goals: 2.74
  • •Bonus: 4
  • •Despite the strong attacking expectations, he’s not matching that with explosive FPL output.

GW25 prediction: Calafiori has the underlying numbers to pop with a goal + bonus type of return — the kind that swings mini-leagues.

Gabriel Martinelli (Arsenal) — xGI 3.20 | 33 pts | ICT 40.6 | £6.8

Low points, big underlying involvement: exactly the profile that creates buying opportunities.

  • •xGI: 3.20
  • •Expected goals: 2.68 (finishing/variance has been unkind)
  • •Selected by: 0.9% (ultra-differential)

GW25 prediction: Martinelli is a classic differential bounce-back candidate. If you want to make up ground quickly, this is the sort of bet that can pay off in one week.

Noni Madueke (Arsenal) — xGI 2.49 | 36 pts | ICT 56.9 | £6.8

Madueke’s numbers scream involvement — especially creatively.

  • •Expected assists: 1.88 (chance creation is strong)
  • •xGI: 2.49
  • •Transfers in: 7,948 (managers are noticing)

GW25 prediction: If those chances start getting finished, Madueke can deliver a multi-return week (assist + goal potential implied by xGI).

Quietly unlucky: defenders with attacking upside

Not every “due” player needs to be a forward. These defenders have underlying attacking contribution that hasn’t been fully rewarded.

William Saliba (Arsenal) — xGI 0.95 | 76 pts | ICT 45.6 | £6.0

  • •xGI 0.95 from 0.38 xG + 0.57 xA
  • •Bonus: 4

GW25 prediction: Saliba is a steady route to points, but the xGI hints he’s overdue a set-piece return (goal or assist) to add to his baseline.

Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa) — xGI 1.18 | 72 pts | ICT 58.1 | £4.4

  • •xGI: 1.18
  • •Bonus: 3
  • •Selected by: 7.6% (still room for growth)

GW25 prediction: Konsa profiles as the kind of defender who can deliver a surprise attacking return — especially when underlying involvement keeps ticking.

Ian Maatsen (Aston Villa) — xGI 2.48 | 27 pts | ICT 56.8 | £4.2

This is a fascinating case: huge xGI for a £4.2 defender, but points haven’t arrived.

  • •xGI: 2.48
  • •Expected assists: 1.63 (serious creative output)

GW25 prediction: Maatsen is the definition of “due.” If the assists start converting, he could be a budget defender haul waiting to happen.

The “don’t chase xGI” note (goalkeepers)

Some players show up as under-performers vs xGI simply because their role doesn’t generate goal involvements.

  • •David Raya (Arsenal) — xGI 0.05 | 99 pts
  • •Emiliano Martínez (Aston Villa) — xGI 0.04 | 78 pts

These aren’t “due” for attacking returns — their value comes from different scoring routes.

GW25: Who’s most likely to explode?

If you’re prioritising upside based strictly on the data provided:

  • •Top haul candidate: Viktor Gyökeres (xGI 7.87, elite ICT)
  • •Best differential attacker: Gabriel Martinelli (xGI 3.20, tiny ownership)
  • •Best budget “due” pick: Ian Maatsen (xGI 2.48 at £4.2)
  • •Best defender for a set-piece swing: William Saliba (xGI 0.95 + bonus profile)

Conclusion

For Gameweek 25, the numbers point to a familiar FPL truth: finishing and final passes fluctuate, but xGI is a strong signal of who keeps getting opportunities. Gyökeres leads the pack as the premium “unlucky” pick, while Martinelli, Madueke, and Maatsen offer the kind of xGI-driven upside that can transform a week.

If you’re chasing a big green arrow, GW25 might be the moment these underlying stats finally turn into points.