GW21 Scout’s Selection: The Data-Driven Optimal 11 Built on Form, Value & ICT
FPL Admin
FPL Elite Analyst
Introduction
Gameweek 21 is the point of the season where “eye test” narratives start to wobble under the weight of minutes, value, and repeatable underlying numbers. Using only the data below, here’s the optimal XI on paper—prioritising total points, value (value_season), form, minutes security, and attacking/overall involvement (ICT + xG/xA).
Formation: 3-4-3
Goalkeeper (1)
Robin Roefs (£4.9) — The value-first No.1
Roefs tops the goalkeeper slate for a reason: 90 points at just £4.9 is elite efficiency.
- •Total points: 90 (best of the listed GKs)
- •Clean sheets: 7
- •Minutes: 1710 (reliable starter)
- •Value: 18.4 (standout)
- •Form: 4.5
Why he’s in: This is classic “optimal XI” logic—Roefs delivers premium-level output for a mid-price tag, freeing funds for explosive attackers.
Defenders (3)
Jurriën Timber (£6.4) — The upside defender
Timber’s profile screams attacking potential and involvement.
- •Total points: 96
- •Clean sheets: 8
- •Assists: 4
- •ICT Index: 94.5 (best among listed defenders)
- •xG: 4.06 (huge for a defender)
Why he’s in: The combination of clean sheets + elite attacking data makes Timber the high-ceiling pick.
Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (£6.6) — Points machine with set-piece threat
Gabriel brings the perfect mix of defensive baseline and goal threat.
- •Total points: 106 (best among listed defenders)
- •Goals/Assists: 3G / 2A
- •Value: 16.1
- •xG/xA: 1.41 / 0.71
Why he’s in: He’s the top scorer in the defensive pool and still carries meaningful attacking upside.
Marc Guéhi (£5.3) — The value king at the back
Guéhi is the defender pick that balances budget with serious output.
- •Total points: 97
- •Goals/Assists: 2G / 4A
- •Value: 18.3 (best among listed defenders)
- •ICT Index: 78.5
- •xG/xA: 1.80 / 1.47
Why he’s in: When a defender combines price, creativity, and value like this, you don’t overthink it.
Midfielders (4)
Declan Rice (£7.1) — The do-it-all midfielder
Rice leads the midfield group on points with strong creativity and consistent returns.
- •Total points: 119 (best among listed mids)
- •Goals/Assists: 4G / 7A
- •Form: 6.8 (best among listed mids)
- •ICT Index: 127.4
- •xG/xA: 2.60 / 3.63
Why he’s in: This is the rare midfielder who brings form + creativity + points in one package.
Antoine Semenyo (£7.7) — The volume shooter you build around
Semenyo’s underlying threat is monstrous, and the output matches it.
- •Total points: 114
- •Goals/Assists: 9G / 5A
- •Threat: 599.0 (massive)
- •ICT Index: 146.3
- •xG: 6.50
Why he’s in: For GW21, this is the archetype you want—high threat + proven returns.
Morgan Rogers (£7.6) — Form pick with strong minutes
Rogers blends dependable minutes with a hot streak.
- •Total points: 98
- •Form: 6.5
- •Minutes: 1777 (excellent security)
- •Goals/Assists: 7G / 4A
Why he’s in: He’s a GW21-ready pick—nailed minutes plus current form.
Phil Foden (£8.9) — Premium ceiling without the premium price
Foden adds explosiveness and clean sheet points from midfield.
- •Total points: 96
- •Goals/Assists: 7G / 2A
- •Clean sheets: 9
- •ICT Index: 134.9
- •xG/xA: 4.75 / 3.07
Why he’s in: Strong underlying numbers plus goal threat—perfect for an “optimal XI” build.
Note: Bruno Fernandes is data-elite (ICT 167.2, xG 7.01, xA 4.13) but carries a 25% chance of playing (hamstring). For a true GW21 optimal XI, availability matters.
Forwards (3)
Erling Haaland (£15.1) — The non-negotiable captaincy cornerstone
Haaland isn’t just the best forward here—he’s the best asset in the entire dataset.
- •Total points: 155 (best overall)
- •Goals/Assists: 19G / 4A
- •Threat: 933.0
- •ICT Index: 185.5
- •xG: 16.53
Why he’s in: The GW21 optimal XI starts with Haaland and works backwards.
Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues (£6.9) — Value striker with real xG
A classic mid-price forward who’s converting strong underlying numbers.
- •Total points: 91
- •Goals: 11
- •xG: 9.39
- •Minutes: 1581
- •Value: 13.2
Why he’s in: Reliable minutes + double-digit goals at this price is exactly what optimised squads need.
Jarrod Bowen (£7.7) — The differential forward with strong threat
Bowen’s selection is low, but the data says he’s firmly in the conversation.
- •Total points: 88
- •Threat: 544.0
- •Minutes: 1800 (as nailed as it gets)
- •Form: 5.2
Why he’s in: High-minutes attackers with strong threat and low ownership are the kind that swing gameweeks.
GW21 Optimal XI (3-4-3)
GK: Robin Roefs
DEF: Gabriel • Guéhi • Timber
MID: Rice • Semenyo • Rogers • Foden
FWD: Haaland • Igor Thiago • Bowen
Conclusion
This GW21 Scout’s Selection is built to be ruthless: high points, high minutes, and repeatable involvement through form, value, ICT, and xG/xA. It’s a squad that doesn’t just chase last week’s haul—it’s designed to keep producing.
If you’re optimising for Gameweek 21, start with the spine—Roefs for value, Timber/Gabriel/Guéhi for balanced upside, Rice + Semenyo for midfield production, and Haaland as the ceiling—then let the minutes monsters (Rogers, Bowen) keep the floor steady.