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Injury Report 2026-01-29

GW24 Physio Room: Timber & Van de Ven Red Flags — Smart Swaps Before the Deadline

FPL Admin

FPL Elite Analyst

GW24 Physio Room: What the flags mean for your team

Gameweek 24 is shaping up as a classic FPL “damage limitation” week: several high-ownership picks are carrying injury/doubt flags, and the transfer market is already reacting. Below is a clean, data-led roundup of the key concerns — plus practical replacement routes.

Priority flags (high ownership): who to worry about

Jurriën Timber (Arsenal) — status: d — 27.8% owned

Timber is the headline issue this week: massive ownership and a clear sell trend.

  • •Ownership: 27.8%
  • •Cost: 6.3
  • •Points: 110 | PPG: 5.0 | Form: 4.8
  • •Underlying threat: xGI 5.04 (xG 4.16, xA 0.88)
  • •Transfers: 68,706 in vs 107,597 out (net exodus)

What it means for GW24: If you can’t afford to carry a doubt at this ownership level, you’re protecting both points and rank.

Replacement ideas (from the flagged pool):

  • •William Saliba (Arsenal, 6.0, status: d) — A like-for-like Arsenal defensive slot if you’re planning ahead, but note he’s also flagged.
  • •Jeremie Frimpong (Liverpool, 5.8, status: d) — Cheaper route, but also flagged and currently low output (34 points, xGI 1.41).

FPL note: With no clearly “safe” defender replacements provided in this dataset, Timber owners may need to treat the transfer as a two-step plan (move off the doubt now; optimize later when the pool opens up).

Micky van de Ven (Spurs) — status: d — 27.4% owned

Another elite ownership headache, and managers are voting with transfers.

  • •Ownership: 27.4%
  • •Cost: 4.6
  • •Points: 96 | PPG: 4.4 | Form: 4.0
  • •xGI: 2.81 (xG 2.48, xA 0.33)
  • •Transfers: 31,860 in vs 101,109 out

What it means for GW24: At 4.6 with 96 points, he’s been a value cornerstone — but the outflow suggests managers don’t want the headache.

Replacement ideas (from the flagged pool):

  • •Pedro Porro (Spurs, 5.2, status: i) — High ceiling profile (ICT 102.3, xA 2.81), but he’s injured too, so this is only a speculative hold/bench scenario rather than a clean swap.
  • •William Saliba (Arsenal, 6.0, status: d) — Not a direct price match, and also flagged.

Secondary flags worth monitoring (still relevant ownership)

William Saliba (Arsenal) — status: d — 12.2% owned

  • •Cost: 6.0
  • •Points: 70 | PPG: 3.7 | Form: 3.8
  • •xGI: 0.93
  • •Transfers: 26,480 in vs 26,224 out (balanced)

GW24 read: Fewer managers are panic-selling compared to Timber/Van de Ven, but it’s still a significant flag at 12.2%.

Pedro Porro (Spurs) — status: i — 12.2% owned

  • •Cost: 5.2
  • •Points: 79 | PPG: 3.4 | Form: 3.8
  • •Underlying creativity: xA 2.81 | xGI 3.29
  • •Transfers: 4,895 in vs 61,971 out

GW24 read: The injury flag plus heavy sales makes him a risky hold unless your bench is strong.

Mohammed Kudus (Spurs) — status: i — 10.4% owned

  • •Cost: 6.4
  • •Points: 75 | PPG: 3.9 | Form: 0.8
  • •xGI: 4.33 (xG 1.92, xA 2.41)
  • •Transfers: 47 in vs 30,119 out

GW24 read: The combination of injury (i) and weak recent form is the classic “don’t overthink it” sell.

Differential-level issues (lower ownership, but can still sting)

Patrick Dorgu (Man Utd) — status: d — 9.4% owned

  • •Cost: 4.4
  • •Form: 6.2 (standout)
  • •xGI: 3.28
  • •Transfers: 257,964 in vs 151,244 out (still strong demand)

GW24 read: The doubt flag is frustrating because the form is elite — but this is exactly the type of player who can punish sellers if he’s passed fit.

Jack Grealish (Everton) — status: i — 7.5% owned

  • •Cost: 6.4
  • •Points: 79 | PPG: 4.0 | Form: 2.6
  • •Strong underlying: xGI 5.41 (xG 2.05, xA 3.37)
  • •Transfers: 106 in vs 83,011 out

Richarlison (Spurs) — status: i — 6.0% owned

  • •Cost: 6.3
  • •xGI: 6.02 (xG 4.80, xA 1.22)
  • •Transfers: 115 in vs 30,864 out

GW24 transfer approach: quick, practical rules

  • •If you own Timber or Van de Ven: assume you need a move unless you have a reliable bench. Their ownership is huge and the transfer-out volumes are already aggressive.
  • •If you own Porro/Kudus/Richarlison: the “i” status plus heavy selling strongly suggests moving them on if they’re blocking your XI.
  • •If you own Dorgu: treat it as a late-deadline decision — his 6.2 form and huge transfer interest imply many managers are willing to gamble.

Conclusion

GW24 is less about chasing the perfect differential and more about avoiding dead spots in your starting XI. The big story is the defensive injury cloud around Timber (27.8%) and Van de Ven (27.4%) — if you’re exposed, you’re not alone, but decisive managers can still gain ground by acting early and planning a second optimizing move once the injury picture clears.