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Price Watch 2026-01-28

GW24 Transfer Deadline Price Watch: Fernandes & Enzo Driving the Market — Dorgu’s Red Flag

FPL Admin

FPL Elite Analyst

Introduction

With Gameweek 24 nearing the transfer deadline, the market is doing what it always does: piling into proven point scorers and chasing form spikes. The numbers below highlight where the money is flowing (transfers in) and where risk is building (transfers out) — and that usually means price movement is coming.

🔺 Likely Price Risers (or already pushing the threshold)

These are the names attracting heavy demand — and the data gives clear reasons why managers are buying.

Bruno Borges Fernandes (Man Utd) — £9.5

  • •Transfers in: 602,037 (massive)
  • •Selected by: 23.9%
  • •Points: 121 | PPG: 6.0
  • •xGI: 13.09 (xG 7.44 + xA 5.65) | ICT: 196.7
  • •Bonus: 21

Why the rush? Bruno combines elite underlying involvement (xGI 13.09) with top-end output (6.0 points per game) and a huge ICT Index (196.7). This is classic “safe premium” buying ahead of a deadline: high ownership, reliable returns, and strong bonus upside.

Enzo Fernández (Chelsea) — £6.7

  • •Transfers in: 331,711
  • •Form: 7.0 (best here)
  • •Points: 106 | PPG: 4.8
  • •xGI: 12.68 (xG 8.73 + xA 3.95) | ICT: 162.7

Why the rush? This is the standout GW24 momentum pick. A 7.0 form rating plus elite midfield xGI at a mid-price £6.7 is exactly the type of profile that triggers fast market movement. The volume of transfers suggests managers are treating him as a value upgrade rather than a punt.

João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus (Chelsea) — £7.2

  • •Transfers in: 405,082
  • •Selected by: 30.3%
  • •Points: 104 | PPG: 4.5
  • •xGI: 8.57 | Bonus: 20

Why the rush? The appeal is part safety, part ceiling. With 30.3% ownership, managers are clearly protecting rank, and the 20 bonus indicates he’s converting returns into extra points consistently. Even with a lower xGI than some rivals, this level of buying pressure often precedes a price rise.

Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd) — £8.3

  • •Transfers in: 501,034
  • •Points: 93 | PPG: 5.2
  • •xGI: 9.72 (xG 6.30 + xA 3.42) | ICT: 154.2

Why the rush? Managers are paying for a steady points profile (5.2 PPG) with strong underlying numbers (xGI 9.72) and a healthy ICT Index. This has the shape of a “deadline consolidation” move: fewer punts, more dependable starters.

Antoine Semenyo (Man City) — £7.8

  • •Transfers in: 242,380
  • •Selected by: 48.2% (very high)
  • •Points: 130 | PPG: 5.9
  • •xGI: 9.04 | Bonus: 14

Why the rush? At 48.2% ownership, this is near-mandatory territory. The market tends to keep inflating highly owned, high-output assets because managers buy to avoid damage. With 130 points and 5.9 PPG, he fits the template of a “don’t overthink it” GW24 hold/buy.

🔻 Fallers & Red Flags (selling pressure building)

These players have notable transfers out or risk indicators that often precede a price drop.

Kevin Schade (Brentford) — £7.2

  • •Transfers out: 44,004 (net negative)
  • •Selected by: 3.0%
  • •Points: 88 | PPG: 4.0
  • •xGI: 10.16 (xG 8.45 + xA 1.71)

Why the sell-off? Despite a respectable xGI 10.16, the market is voting with its feet. Low ownership (3.0%) means there’s less “price protection” from casual holds, so even moderate selling can push him toward a drop.

Patrick Dorgu (Man Utd) — £4.4 — Status: d

  • •Status: d (flagged)
  • •Transfers in: 254,169 | Transfers out: 118,591
  • •Form: 6.2 (looks good)
  • •xGI: 3.28

Why this matters for GW24: This is the classic deadline trap: strong form (6.2) driving buys, while the flag (d) triggers panic sales. That push-pull often leads to volatility — and flagged players can become sudden fallers if uncertainty grows late in the week.

David Raya Martín (Arsenal) — £5.9

  • •Transfers in: 42,292 | Transfers out: 49,413 (net negative)
  • •Selected by: 33.2%
  • •PPG: 4.0 | Bonus: 4

Why the drift? Even with strong ownership, goalkeepers can become “luxury sells” around deadlines when managers need cash or a slot for an attacking upgrade. The net transfers out suggest some teams are re-allocating funds elsewhere.

Kepa Arrizabalaga Revuelta (Arsenal) — £4.1

  • •Transfers out: 310 (small volume)
  • •Points/PPG: 0 / 0.0

Karl Hein (Arsenal) — £4.0 — Status: u

  • •Status: u
  • •Transfers out: 106

Why include them? Low-owned bench keepers move quietly, but flags and zero-point profiles don’t attract fresh buying. Any selling pressure can tip them downward because there’s no demand buffer.

GW24 Market Summary: Who’s moving and why

Biggest demand drivers:

  • •Fernandes (602k transfers in) as the premium stability buy.
  • •João Pedro and Enzo as Chelsea-led volume moves — one for ownership safety/bonus, one for form and xGI value.
  • •Mbeumo as a high-PPG, strong-xGI consolidation pick.

Biggest fall risk signals:

  • •Schade: clear net selling with low ownership support.
  • •Dorgu: flagged status creates deadline instability despite strong form.
  • •Raya: modest net selling typical of funds redistribution.

Conclusion

Gameweek 24 is shaping up like a classic transfer-deadline squeeze: managers are buying reliable points and strong xGI, which is why Fernandes and Enzo are powering the market. On the other side, keep an eye on Schade and especially Dorgu — once flags and net sales gather momentum, prices can move quickly before the deadline.