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Optimal Squad 2026-01-24

GW23 Scout’s Selection: The Data-Driven Optimal 11 Built on Points, Form & xGI

FPL Admin

FPL Elite Analyst

Introduction

Gameweek 23 is where we lean into what the numbers are already shouting: banked points, current form, and the underlying threat of xGI. Using only the data provided, here’s the Optimal 11 on paper—a squad that blends proven scorers with high-upside enablers.

GW23 Optimal 11 (Data-Only)

Formation: 3-4-3

Goalkeeper

  • •Jordan Pickford (Everton) – 5.6
    • •100 points (best of the listed GKs) | Form: 6.0 | PPG: 4.5
    • •Strong all-round output with 11 bonus and solid popularity (13.4% selected).

Defenders (3)

  • •

    Gabriel Magalhães (Arsenal) – 6.9

    • •Defensive premium on current output: 120 points, elite Form: 7.8, and PPG: 7.5
    • •Big upside too: xGI: 2.47 with 18 bonus.
  • •

    Jurriën Timber (Arsenal) – 6.3

    • •The standout underlying defender: xGI: 5.03 (driven by xG: 4.16)
    • •Strong overall returns: 109 points and a massive ICT: 97.9.
  • •

    Trevoh Chalobah (Chelsea) – 5.6

    • •Balanced pick: 110 points with xGI: 1.82
    • •High involvement indicated by ICT: 74.4.

Why no fourth defender? The data screams upside in midfield/attack, so we maximize xGI and points potential via 3-4-3.

Midfielders (4)

  • •

    Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) – 9.2

    • •The midfield engine by underlying numbers: xGI: 12.69 (xG 7.07, xA 5.62)
    • •Backed by output: 116 points, PPG: 6.1, and 21 bonus.
  • •

    Declan Rice (Arsenal) – 7.4

    • •Consistent premium performer: 125 points (top of the listed mids)
    • •Well-rounded threat: xGI: 7.00 (xA 4.22) and ICT: 143.9.
  • •

    Antoine Semenyo (Man City) – 7.6

    • •High-upside attacking profile: xGI: 8.72 (xG 6.74)
    • •Massive ownership (45.9%) plus 122 points keeps you covered.
  • •

    Harry Wilson (Fulham) – 5.9

    • •The value glue: 104 points at a mid-price tag
    • •Strong supporting numbers: xGI: 6.57 and 13 bonus.

Note: Bruno Guimarães has great numbers (120 points, Form: 7.2, xGI: 6.98) but is listed as status: d, so he narrowly misses the XI on availability.

Forwards (3)

  • •

    Erling Haaland (Man City) – 15.1

    • •The unavoidable centerpiece: 165 points and a monstrous xGI: 19.86
    • •Even with Form: 2.8, the underlying goal threat (xG: 18.60) remains unmatched.
  • •

    Igor Thiago (Brentford) – 7.2

    • •Form-forward with elite scoring data: Form: 7.6 and xG: 12.76
    • •Delivers both output and upside: 122 points, xGI: 13.60, 18 bonus.
  • •

    Jarrod Bowen (West Ham) – 7.6

    • •A differential forward (only 8.0% selected) with solid threat: xGI: 6.24
    • •Bonus-friendly profile (16 bonus) and respectable 93 points.

Captaincy (Data-Only)

  • •Captain: Erling Haaland – highest points (165) and best xGI (19.86).
  • •Vice-captain: Bruno Fernandes – standout midfielder for xGI (12.69) and ICT (191.9).

Quick XI Summary

Pickford
Gabriel – Timber – Chalobah
Bruno Fernandes – Rice – Semenyo – Wilson
Haaland (C) – Igor Thiago – Bowen

Conclusion

This GW23 Scout’s Selection is built to win on two fronts: the safety of elite points/ownership anchors (Haaland, Semenyo, Gabriel) and the upside of xGI-driven picks (Bruno Fernandes, Timber, Igor Thiago). If you’re targeting maximum paper-potential from the provided data set, this is the Optimal 11 that makes the fewest compromises—and asks the best questions of your rivals’ squads.