GW21 Transfer Market: Arsenal’s Backline Boom — Smart Value or Pure Knee-Jerk?

Introduction

The Gameweek 21 transfer market is telling a very specific story: FPL managers are piling into Arsenal defensive assets. From the steady security of David Raya to the attacking pull of Jurriën Timber, the interest is clear.

Using the data provided, here’s a focused report on who’s being brought in and shipped out, and whether these moves look calculated or knee-jerk.

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Most Transferred IN (GW21)

From the provided transfer list, the standout “Transferred IN” targets are:

1) David Raya Martín (£6.0) — Goalkeeper

•Total points: 80

•Clean sheets: 9

•Minutes: 1800

•Selected by: 34.8%

•Form: 2.7

•Value (pts/£): 13.3

Verdict: Smart, but not explosive.

•This is the definition of a “set-and-forget” style move: 1800 minutes signals complete security, and 9 clean sheets makes the floor very stable.

•The only concern is upside: with 0.04 expected assists and essentially no attacking threat, Raya is mostly a clean-sheet and save-point bet.

Buy if: you want a reliable starter with proven clean-sheet output.

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2) Jurriën Timber (£6.4) — Defender

•Total points: 96

•Goals/Assists: 2 / 4

•Clean sheets: 8

•Minutes: 1549

•Selected by: 28.1%

•Form: 3.5

•ICT Index: 94.5

•xG/xA: 4.06 / 0.83

Verdict: Smart, with clear upside.

•Timber looks like the “complete” FPL defender in this data set: strong baseline (minutes + clean sheets) plus serious attacking indicators.

•An xG of 4.06 is massive for a defender, and he’s already backed it up with 2 goals and 4 assists.

This doesn’t read like a knee-jerk—it reads like managers responding to elite underlying numbers and proven returns.

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3) Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (£6.6) — Defender

•Total points: 106

•Goals/Assists: 3 / 2

•Clean sheets: 8

•Minutes: 1175

•Form: 4.2

•Value (pts/£): 16.1

•Selected by: 24.0%

•Cost change event: +1

Verdict: Smart…and possibly still undervalued.

•Gabriel’s value_season of 16.1 is the best among the core Arsenal defensive options listed.

•He’s combining clean sheets with direct attacking output (3 goals), and his form (4.2) suggests this isn’t just ancient history points.

The only mild flag is minutes (1175) being lower than some peers, but the returns per appearance are clearly driving transfers.

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4) William Saliba (£5.9) — Defender

•Total points: 54

•Clean sheets: 6

•Minutes: 1264

•Form: 2.2

•Threat: 22.0

•xG/xA: 0.29 / 0.29

Verdict: Potentially knee-jerk if bought for attacking returns.

•Saliba looks like the “safe” pick on price and minutes, but the attacking data here is minimal.

•If managers are buying him expecting goals/assists, the numbers suggest that’s optimistic.

More of a ‘structure’ transfer—good for steady clean-sheet hunting, not chasing hauls.

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5) Riccardo Calafiori (£5.7) — Defender

•Total points: 77

•Goals/Assists: 1 / 2

•Clean sheets: 9

•Status: i (injured)

•News: *Muscle injury - Unknown return date*

•Threat: 219.0

•xG: 2.49

Verdict: High risk, very knee-jerk if transferred in now.

•The underlying attacking pull is obvious (big threat and xG 2.49), but the key detail is unavoidable: injured with an unknown return date.

•Buying an injured defender—without clarity—is classic “I don’t want to miss out” behaviour.

Unless a manager has a very specific bench plan, this looks more reactive than strategic.

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Most Transferred OUT (GW21)

Based strictly on the transfer lists provided, the “Transferred OUT” names match the “Transferred IN” names. That means the market is currently showing rotation/swap behaviour within the same pool of Arsenal defensive assets, rather than a clear shift away from them.

Key observation

•Raya, Timber, Gabriel, Saliba, and Calafiori appear in both lists.

•This suggests managers are:

•restructuring between Arsenal defenders based on price/role,

•reacting to form and points value, and

•most notably, responding to Calafiori’s injury status by moving funds elsewhere.

Is this smart or knee-jerk?

•Smart transfers out:

•Moving away from Calafiori (injured, unknown return) is generally the rational play.

•Potential knee-jerk transfers out:

•Selling premium-performing assets like Gabriel (106 points, 16.1 value) or Timber (96 points, elite xG/ICT) could be reactionary *unless* it’s funding a broader squad change.

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Quick Hits: Best GW21 Buys (From This Data)

•Best all-round pick: Jurriën Timber (elite attacking indicators + strong points)

•Best value pick: Gabriel (106 points, 16.1 value_season, form 4.2)

•Safest minutes pick: Raya (1800 minutes)

•Avoid (for now): Calafiori (injured, unknown return date)

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Conclusion

The Gameweek 21 transfer market—based on this dataset—isn’t about chasing random punts. It’s a clear Arsenal defensive reshuffle, with managers gravitating toward proven points (Gabriel, Timber) and security (Raya).

The smart money is on transfers that follow the fundamentals in the data: minutes, clean sheets, value, and underlying threat. The most obvious knee-jerk move is bringing in an injured Calafiori purely because his threat numbers look exciting.

If you’re making a GW21 defensive move, the numbers strongly support Timber and Gabriel as the most justified transfers—while Calafiori is the trap to avoid.