GW23 Underlying Stats Radar: The ICT Leaders Quietly Running Your Mini-League
FPL Admin
FPL Elite Analyst
Introduction
Gameweek 23 is where FPL seasons often pivot—not because of one-off hauls, but because underlying control turns into points. Using the Top ICT performers list, this piece zooms in on ICT Index (and the signals behind it—Influence and Creativity) to identify players who are driving games, even if recent returns haven’t matched their involvement.
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GW23: Why ICT (and especially Influence/Creativity) matters
The ICT Index is a composite view of:
For GW23 decision-making, ICT is particularly useful for:
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The GW23 Control Room: Elite ICT profiles
1) Erling Haaland (Man City) — the benchmark for Threat + bonus gravity
Haaland’s profile is still the template for elite FPL physics: massive xG plus consistent bonus. Even with a modest form (2.8), the underlying output is so far ahead that it frames GW23 captaincy conversations by default.
GW23 takeaway: If you’re looking for “control,” Haaland controls the scoreboard: elite xG + elite bonus = sustained ceiling.
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2) Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) — the influence/creativity engine you buy for involvement
Bruno’s numbers scream “control”: a top-two ICT Index paired with balanced xG and xA, indicating he’s not just arriving—he’s also creating. That blend is exactly what you want from an FPL midfielder when you’re chasing steady returns rather than hunting a single haul.
GW23 takeaway: If you want a player who can return through either goals or assists, Bruno’s xGI 12.69 plus ICT 191.9 is as bankable as it gets.
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3) Igor Thiago (Brentford) — elite form + elite xG: the numbers are already converting
Thiago is the cleanest “finisher profile” on the list outside Haaland: heavy xG with low xA, suggesting a role that’s about being on the end of moves rather than starting them.
GW23 takeaway: Not a “control the ball” creator, but he controls the penalty box—xG 12.76 with form 7.6 signals confidence for GW23.
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The buy-low GW23 shortlist: High ICT, muted recent output
These are the profiles that often win FPL weeks: players showing strong involvement (Influence/Creativity signals inside ICT) without matching recent points.
Phil Foden (Man City) — elite ICT, poor form: classic buy-low pattern
This is exactly what you want to see for a GW23 pivot: strong ICT despite poor form, plus a mass exodus. When a player retains strong involvement but loses managers, you often get a brief window where the risk/reward swings in your favor.
GW23 takeaway: Foden is a control-and-carry profile with suppressed form—prime territory for an underlying-stats bet.
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Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd) — top ICT with weak form: the numbers say ‘patience’
Mbeumo’s xGI 9.56 and strong ICT ranking suggest involvement is not the issue. The low form (1.5) hints at under-conversion—either personal finishing variance or teammates not finishing chances.
GW23 takeaway: If you’re shopping for “controlling games but not hauling,” Mbeumo fits the brief: high ICT, respectable xGI, low recent output.
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Pedro Neto (Chelsea) — creativity profile with underwhelming points
Neto’s xA (4.21) is stronger than his xG, making him a more chance-creation leaning asset. With low ownership, he’s the kind of GW23 differential that can jump you rank if assists (and bonus) start landing.
GW23 takeaway: Neto’s underlying creation is the hook—low selected_by (6.4%) enhances the upside if Chelsea chances start being finished.
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Midfielders controlling games: Influence-heavy profiles you can trust
If you want “control” in the purest sense—players who dictate tempo and stack involvement—these are your GW23 lenses.
Declan Rice (Arsenal) — elite points with modest xGI: influence + system value
Rice stands out because his points (125) are huge relative to his xGI (7.00). That’s often the footprint of an Influence-driven asset: involved in phases that earn bonus and consistent baseline contributions.
GW23 takeaway: Not a pure xGI chaser, but an excellent “control + steady returns” pick when you value reliability and bonus pathways.
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Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle) — high form, lower xGI: influence-led momentum
Another clear influence-forward profile: strong ICT and elite form, but xGI under 7. That mismatch can still be valuable in FPL when the player is at the heart of transitions and collecting bonus.
GW23 takeaway: If you’re targeting players who “run matches,” Bruno G is exactly that—even when the raw xGI isn’t elite.
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The premium involvement picks: Strong ICT with room for returns
Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) — the involvement remains despite a quieter market
Saka’s xGI 10.19 combined with ICT 151.7 is the exact signature of a player who can deliver across goals and assists. The transfers out suggest impatience in the market—often a useful contrarian indicator when the underlying involvement is intact.
GW23 takeaway: If you want a GW23 bet on controlled involvement turning into points, Saka has the balanced underlying base.
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Enzo Fernández (Chelsea) — a deep-metric darling for GW23
Enzo’s profile is sneakily strong: xGI 11.72 with an ICT that sits above many more “fashionable” picks. For a midfielder, xG 7.79 is especially notable—it suggests consistent arrival into scoring zones, not just safe passing.
GW23 takeaway: If you’re prioritizing “control” with tangible goal threat, Enzo’s numbers justify attention.
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Quick GW23 watchlist (data-led)
Best pure control + output:
Best buy-low control bet:
Best low-ownership creativity lean:
Best influence-led steady scorer:
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Conclusion
For Gameweek 23, the edge is in targeting players who are already controlling matches via ICT—especially those whose Influence/Creativity signals are strong even when recent form or points don’t scream “buy.” The data highlights clear tiers: Haaland as the elite threat benchmark; Bruno Fernandes as the all-phase controller; and a cluster of buy-low or influence-led midfielders (Foden, Saka, Enzo, Rice, Bruno G) whose involvement offers multiple routes to points.
When in doubt for GW23: follow ICT strength + xGI—and be willing to back the players who are driving games before the hauls arrive.