Introduction
Gameweek 22’s transfer market is doing what it does best: chasing form, dodging injuries, and reacting hard to recent points. Below is the definitive GW22 “who’s in / who’s out” report—plus a reality check using form, points-per-game, xGI, and ownership to judge whether managers are making sharp, data-led moves… or classic knee‑jerks.
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Most Transferred IN (GW22)
1) Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues (Brentford) — 464,857 IN
•Cost: 7.1 | Selected by: 34.7%
•Form: 7.6 | Points: 120 | PPG: 5.7
•xG: 12.59 | xA: 0.76 | xGI: 13.35 | ICT: 161.8
Verdict: Smart (borderline bandwagon, but justified).
•The numbers scream *reliable scorer*: xG 12.59 with strong xGI 13.35.
•The market movement is massive for a reason: form 7.6 and strong underlying threat.
•The only caution: at 34.7% ownership, you’re paying a “template tax”—but it still looks like a solid buy rather than panic.
2) Gabriel Magalhães (Arsenal) — 391,262 IN
•Cost: 6.7 | Selected by: 32.1%
•Form: 6.2 | Points: 112 | PPG: 7.5
•xGI: 2.32 | Bonus: 16
Verdict: Smart, points-led (not xGI-led).
•This is a classic defender points profile: huge 7.5 PPG and strong bonus (16).
•Don’t buy him expecting frequent attacking returns—xGI 2.32 is modest.
•Still, with those points and consistency indicators, this is more *strategic* than knee‑jerk.
3) Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle) — 351,315 IN
•Cost: 7.2 | Selected by: 22.0%
•Form: 7.0 | Points: 117 | PPG: 5.8
•xGI: 6.39 | ICT: 139.2 | Bonus: 18
Verdict: Mostly smart, slightly form-chasing.
•Form 7.0 plus bonus 18 suggests he’s involved and returning even without elite xGI.
•xGI 6.39 is good rather than explosive, so managers expecting a pure haul machine may be overreaching.
•As a steady mid, it’s a sensible transfer—just don’t expect striker-level output.
4) Harry Wilson (Fulham) — 338,623 IN
•Cost: 5.9 | Selected by: 20.8%
•Form: 4.8 | Points: 102 | PPG: 5.1
•xGI: 6.21 | ICT: 114.9
Verdict: Mixed (could be a value play, but form isn’t screaming buy).
•The underlying xGI 6.21 is credible for the price.
•But form 4.8 isn’t exactly a siren call—this could be managers hunting a mid-price enabler.
•Not a clear knee-jerk, but not a slam-dunk either.
5) Declan Rice (Arsenal) — 323,254 IN
•Cost: 7.3 | Selected by: 27.2%
•Form: 7.2 | Points: 122 | PPG: 6.1
•xG: 2.66 | xA: 3.78 | xGI: 6.44 | Bonus: 18
Verdict: Smart (role + steady returns).
•Form 7.2 and PPG 6.1 is premium-adjacent production.
•xA 3.78 and bonus 18 hint at consistent involvement, even if he’s not the flashiest pick.
•This looks like a “boring but effective” transfer.
6) Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds) — 238,623 IN
•Cost: 6.0 | Selected by: 12.8%
•Form: 6.4 | Points: 89 | PPG: 4.7
•xG: 7.95 | xGI: 8.80 | Bonus: 15
Verdict: Sensible punt.
•For 6.0, xG 7.95 is attractive, and the form 6.4 backs it up.
•Not elite season-long output (PPG 4.7), but a fair upside punt at modest ownership.
7) Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) — 222,166 IN
•Cost: 9.1 | Selected by: 12.9%
•Form: 3.5 | Points: 106 | PPG: 5.9
•xG: 7.07 | xA: 5.09 | xGI: 12.16 | ICT: 179.3
Verdict: Data-smart, form-ignoring (high risk, high logic).
•The xGI 12.16 and monster ICT 179.3 suggest strong underlying involvement.
•But the market is buying despite form 3.5—this is managers betting that regression is coming.
•Not a knee-jerk; it’s a calculated, stats-driven gamble.
8) Antoine Semenyo (Man City) — 214,947 IN
•Cost: 7.6 | Selected by: 43.8%
•Form: 6.2 | Points: 120 | PPG: 6.0
•xGI: 8.52 | Transfers out: 246,591
Verdict: Volatile market signal (not a pure buy).
•The wild part: he’s both heavily bought and heavily sold.
•With 43.8% ownership, managers are split—some chasing his steady 6.0 PPG, others jumping off.
•This smells like team-structure moves rather than a simple “he’s good/bad” conclusion.
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Most Transferred OUT (GW22)
1) Phil Foden (Man City) — 442,818 OUT
•Cost: 8.7 | Selected by: 33.1%
•Form: 2.4 | Points: 100 | PPG: 5.3
•xGI: 8.39 | ICT: 145.2
Verdict: Mostly smart (form collapse), slightly knee-jerk (underlyings still fine).
•Form 2.4 is brutal, so selling is understandable.
•But xGI 8.39 and ICT 145.2 aren’t the numbers of a dead asset.
•This looks like managers reacting to short-term output—not irrational, but potentially early if you believe in underlying data.
2) Hugo Ekitiké (Liverpool) — 328,597 OUT
•Cost: 8.9 | Selected by: 26.0%
•Form: 3.2 | Points: 84 | PPG: 4.7
•xGI: 6.89
Verdict: Smart.
•At 8.9, you want premium-ish returns; PPG 4.7 and form 3.2 don’t justify it.
•xGI 6.89 is fine, but not enough to defend that price tag in a competitive forward pool.
3) Antoine Semenyo (Man City) — 246,591 OUT
•Form: 6.2 | Points: 120 | PPG: 6.0 | xGI: 8.52
Verdict: Could be knee-jerk (he’s producing), but may be strategic.
•Selling an asset with 6.2 form and 6.0 PPG is rarely about performance.
•More likely: managers are reallocating funds, reshaping, or reacting to uncertainty—hence the simultaneous big buy volume.
4) Matheus Cunha (Man Utd) — 219,253 OUT
•Cost: 8.2 | Selected by: 11.9%
•Form: 5.3 | Points: 66 | PPG: 3.7
•xGI: 6.86
Verdict: Smart.
•Even with decent form 5.3, the season value isn’t there: 3.7 PPG at 8.2.
•Managers are cutting a mid-performing expensive forward—logical.
5) Joško Gvardiol (Man City) — 206,589 OUT (Status: i)
•Cost: 6.0 | PPG: 4.8
Verdict: Smart (injury-driven).
•When the status is injured, the market usually gets this right. Easy sell unless you can bench.
6) Rúben Dias (Man City) — 166,187 OUT (Status: i)
•Cost: 5.6 | PPG: 4.8
Verdict: Smart (injury-driven).
•Same story: injury + significant sales = pragmatic, not reactive.
7) Rayan Cherki (Man City) — 164,037 OUT
•Cost: 6.8 | Form: 5.4 | PPG: 4.8
•xA: 5.33 | xGI: 7.04
Verdict: Slightly knee-jerk.
•With form 5.4 and strong creativity (xA 5.33), this isn’t an obvious dump.
•This looks like managers preferring “cleaner” picks or chasing recent returns elsewhere.
8) Jarrod Bowen (West Ham) — 135,048 OUT
•Cost: 7.7 | Form: 3.2 | PPG: 4.3
•xGI: 6.10
Verdict: Mostly smart.
•Form 3.2 and 4.3 PPG make him feel expendable at 7.7.
•xGI 6.10 is okay, but not enough to resist the urge to upgrade/downgrade.
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Smart Moves vs Knee‑Jerks (Quick Summary)
Likely Smart Buys
•Igor Thiago: elite scoring indicators (xG 12.59, form 7.6)
•Gabriel: elite returns for a defender (7.5 PPG, bonus-heavy)
•Rice: steady production (form 7.2, bonus 18)
•Bruno Guimarães: stable mid with returns + bonus
High-Variance / Context-Dependent Buys
•Bruno Fernandes: huge underlying data (xGI 12.16) despite weak form (3.5)
•Wilson / Calvert-Lewin: look like value/punt plays more than “must-buys”
•Semenyo: the market is conflicted—buy/sell volumes suggest strategy shifts
Clear Sells
•Gvardiol / Dias: injured (status: i) = practical exits
•Ekitiké / Cunha: price-to-output mismatch
Potentially Premature Sells
•Foden: form is awful, but xGI 8.39 and ICT 145.2 suggest there may still be returns
•Cherki: strong assist potential (xA 5.33) makes the exodus feel a bit reactive
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Conclusion
GW22’s transfer market is a blend of well-supported form buys (Thiago, Rice, Gabriel) and bigger narrative swings (Foden mass sales, the Semenyo split). The key takeaway: some “template” moves are popular because they’re genuinely backed by data—while others look like managers reacting to short-term pain without fully respecting strong underlying numbers.
If you’re making transfers this week, anchor decisions in xGI + points-per-game, then use form as a tiebreak—not the other way around.