GW22 Differential Watchlist: Brentford’s 2.6% Forward with 7.70 xG & the 3.2% Defender on 8.8 Form
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FPL Elite Analyst
Gameweek 22: Differentials to climb the ranks
Chasing rank gains in FPL often comes down to one thing: smart, low-owned punts that hit. For Gameweek 22, this watchlist focuses strictly on <10% ownership players showing standout recent form and/or underlying numbers (xG/xA, ICT Index) — the perfect recipe for a calculated differential.
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The headline differential (Midfield/Forward): Kevin Schade (Brentford)
Why he’s interesting: elite underlying threat + low ownership.
GW22 takeaway: If you want one swing pick capable of a serious green arrow, Schade is the profile. The combination of 7.70 xG and a massive 122.2 ICT suggests this isn’t just a hot streak — it’s sustained involvement and goal threat.
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Defensive differentials (Clean-sheet base + bonus/attacking upside)
Nathan Collins (Brentford)
A rare defender differential with genuinely elite form.
Why it works for GW22: 8.8 form at 3.2% owned is exactly the sort of edge that can separate you from template defenders. Add 1.42 xG and he’s not just relying on clean sheets.
Nordi Mukiele (Sunderland)
A popular “differential” — still under 10%, still a rank tool.
Why it works for GW22: If you want budget access to points with some attacking contribution (xA 1.39), Mukiele sits in that sweet spot: cheap, usable, and still not widely owned.
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Goalkeeper differential: Caoimhín Kelleher (Brentford)
A low-owned keeper with excellent current output.
GW22 takeaway: Keeper punts are rarely glamorous, but 7.6 form at £4.5m can quietly outperform popular options and free budget for premium attackers.
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Midfield differentials (High upside, low ownership)
James Garner (Everton)
One of the strongest all-round profiles here: points + underlying assists.
Why it’s a GW22 move: 109.8 ICT and 2.90 xA scream involvement. If you’re hunting a steady differential with genuine chance creation baked in, Garner is a strong candidate.
Brenden Aaronson (Leeds)
A proper “rank climber” pick thanks to microscopic ownership.
GW22 takeaway: At 0.5% owned, even a single return can vault you past thousands of managers. The blend of 2.85 xG + 2.51 xA makes him more than just a vibes pick.
Yasin Ayari (Brighton)
Quietly productive underlying numbers at a budget price.
GW22 takeaway: If you need a bench-to-starter enabler with some goal threat, Ayari’s 2.43 xG stands out for the price and ownership.
Martin Ødegaard (Arsenal)
The premium-ish differential nobody expects to be low-owned.
GW22 takeaway: If your mini-league is stacked with the same core mids, Ødegaard at 2.5% offers a different route — with 2.13 xA pointing to assist potential.
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Deep-cut punts (ultra low-owned, form-led)
Vitaly Janelt (Brentford)
If you want a true “ghost” differential, this is it.
Keane Lewis-Potter (Brentford)
Budget midfielder differential with steady form.
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Quick GW22 shortlist (if you only pick 3)
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Conclusion
Gameweek 22 is a prime moment to lean into low-owned form players — the kind that can create separation when the template stalls. If you want upside with data support, start with Schade for goals, Collins for defensive value with threat, and Garner for creativity and steady returns. Differentials don’t have to be reckless — they just need to be rare, in-form, and backed by numbers.