GW22 Template vs Differentials: Haaland Is the Anchor, but Semenyo & Thiago Are the Real Herd Moves

Introduction

Gameweek 22 is shaping up like a classic FPL tension point: the template (safe ownership, damage control) versus the differentials (rank climbs, variance). Using current ownership and performance indicators, here’s where the herd is already planted, who it’s moving toward, and which picks look like a trap versus a must-have.

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The GW22 Template: Who You Probably Own (and why)

These are the players shaping the “don’t get punished” core.

Erling Haaland (74.3% owned) — Must-have, not a debate

•163 points, 20 goals, 4 assists

•Monster underlying output: xG 18.47, Threat 1021.0, ICT 200.4

•Even his “quiet” games can break you because of sheer volume and baseline threat.

Verdict: Must-have. At 74.3% ownership, going without isn’t “brave”—it’s actively accepting a huge downside.

Antoine Semenyo (43.2%) — The herd’s value magnet

•120 points at £7.6m, elite value_season 15.8

•Returns: 10 goals, 5 assists

•Underlying split is the story:

•xG 6.69 vs 10 goals (overperformance)

•Influence 553.4 / Threat 611.0 / ICT 151.4 suggests he’s heavily involved regardless

Verdict: Borderline must-have if you’re building for value and consistent involvement—but watch the finishing regression risk. He can keep scoring, but the data says he’s been running hot.

Marc Guéhi (39.8%) — Template defender for a reason

•105 points at £5.3m with value_season 19.8

•7 clean sheets, plus 2 goals, 4 assists is rare for the price

•Steady minutes (1800) = reliable appearance points

Verdict: Must-own value profile at the price. Even if his form (2.6) is muted, his season value is doing the heavy lifting.

David Raya (33.6%) — The clean sheet banker

•10 clean sheets, 1890 minutes

•Solid season value (14.6) at £5.9m

Verdict: Safe template glue. Not flashy, but the clean sheet count is the selling point.

Phil Foden (33.6%) — Template by name, differential by feel

•100 points, 7 goals, 2 assists

•Elite creativity: Creativity 650.0 and xA 3.44

•But: form 2.4 and only 1567 minutes introduces frustration risk

Verdict: Not a trap, but not an autopick. The creative numbers say chances should keep coming, but current form and minutes temper the “set-and-forget” appeal.

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The Herd’s GW22 Trend: Who managers are gravitating toward

Ownership alone shows what’s already template. The “herd move” is about who has the combination of points + form + price that screams ‘bandwagon’.

Igor Thiago (34.6%) — The momentum forward

•120 points, 16 goals at £7.1m

•Strong underlying base: xG 12.59, Threat 747.0, ICT 161.8

•Form 6.7 with a cost_change_event +1 (price rising)

Verdict: The herd move looks justified. He’s not just scoring—his xG and threat support it. At this price point, he’s shaping into a “you either own him or fear him” pick for GW22.

Declan Rice (27.0%) — The form-driven midfield pivot

•122 points, 4 goals, 7 assists

•Form 7.2 (best in this dataset)

•Underlying creators love him: Creativity 580.7, xA 3.78

Verdict: Not a trap—but he’s a different kind of asset. The form and creativity suggest he’s a sustainable contributor, even if he’s not a classic high-xG midfielder.

Gabriel (31.8%) & Timber (27.5%) — Arsenal defensive gravity

•Gabriel: 112 points, form 6.2, cost_change_event +1

•Timber: 104 points, good attacking indicators (xG 4.06) and ICT 97.0

Verdict: The herd is leaning into multi-route defenders (clean sheets + goal threat). Gabriel looks like the cleaner bandwagon (form + price rise). Timber is the “stat-nerd” pick with attacking indicators.

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Differentials for GW22: High-upside alternatives (with clear risks)

These aren’t low-owned punts, but they’re less concentrated than the big template pieces—perfect if you want to gain without going full rogue.

Morgan Rogers (31.8%) — The quietly strong all-rounder

•101 points, 7 goals, 4 assists, form 5.0

•Underlying: xG 3.42 and xA 2.36 (returns are ahead of the xG)

Why it works: steady minutes (1867) and consistent output.

Risk: like Semenyo, some overperformance is present—he needs involvement to stay sticky.

Micky van de Ven (28.0%) — The budget defender with teeth

•£4.6m, value_season 19.3

•7 clean sheets, plus 3 goals (excellent for a defender)

Why it works: price-to-output is elite.

Risk: defenders can be streaky; his value is great, but ceilings are still typically lower than attackers.

João Pedro (26.5%) — The “steady but unspectacular” forward

•84 points, 6 goals, 3 assists

•Underlying is respectable: xG 6.39, Threat 458.0, ICT 116.4

•But form 3.6 and cost_change_event -1 suggest cooling interest

Verdict: Potential trap for GW22 if you’re chasing momentum. The numbers aren’t awful, but he’s not matching the form/price-rising profile of the forwards the herd is buying.

Hugo Ekitiké (25.9%) — The premium-ish forward with minutes risk

•£8.9m, value_season 9.4 (weak for the price)

•1128 minutes only, form 3.2, cost_change_event -1

Verdict: Trap warning. For this cost, you want reliability and/or explosive underlying data. The minutes and value profile don’t support the spend.

Virgil van Dijk (22.5%) — The big name, low attacking output

•79 points, 0 goals, 0 assists

•Great minutes (1890) and 7 clean sheets

Verdict: Not a disaster pick, but as a differential it’s low-ceiling based on this dataset. If you’re shopping for upside, others here offer more.

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GW22: Trap vs Must-Have Summary

Must-haves (template anchors)

•Haaland — elite points + elite xG/threat + massive ownership

•Guéhi — absurd value season for the price

Herd moves that look justified

•Igor Thiago — form + xG + threat + price rise

•Declan Rice — best form in the set, elite creativity and assist potential

•Gabriel — form + points + price rise in a popular defensive structure

Trap alerts (based on this data)

•Ekitiké — price doesn’t match minutes/value

•João Pedro — cooling form and price drop signal

•Van Dijk (as a differential) — stable, but limited upside from goals/assists so far

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Conclusion

For Gameweek 22, the template is clear: Haaland remains the non-negotiable shield, while the market momentum is pushing managers toward Igor Thiago and Declan Rice as the “next wave” of value-plus-form picks. If you’re hunting rank gains, do it intelligently: avoid paying for uncertainty (Ekitiké) and fading momentum (João Pedro), and instead target players whose form, price trends, and underlying threat align with what the herd is buying—without stepping into a data-backed trap.