GW22 Transfer Deadline Price Watch: The 34.6%-Owned Finisher, the 4.8-Form Creator, and the £4.4m Defender Printing Value
FPL Admin
FPL Elite Analyst
The GW22 Market Pulse
Price changes don’t happen in a vacuum — they’re a live reflection of what managers think will happen next. As we hit the Gameweek 22 transfer deadline, a clear theme is emerging: managers are buying value-per-million, high-ICT producers, and minutes monsters.
Below is your GW22 Price Watch on the latest movers — who looks set for more rises, who may be overbought, and who could become a sell pressure story.
Likely to Rise Again: The Bandwagons with Data Behind Them
Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues (£7.1m) — the market’s centerpiece
- •Selected by: 34.6% (already mass-owned)
- •Form: 6.7
- •Total points: 120
- •Goals: 16
- •Threat: 747.0 (the standout)
- •xG: 12.59
- •Value: 16.9
Thiago is the definition of a self-propelling price cycle: massive ownership plus sustained output. The underlying numbers support the buying — 747 threat and 12.59 xG suggest this isn’t a fluke streak being chased blindly. Even at £7.1m, the 16.9 value tells you why managers keep piling in.
GW22 takeaway: If you don’t own him, you’re not just fearing points — you’re fighting team value erosion.
Nathan Collins (£5.0m) — the form king with elite value
- •Selected by: 3.1% (still a niche play)
- •Form: 8.0 (best in this list)
- •Total points: 89
- •Minutes: 1816 (high reliability)
- •ICT: 91.1
- •Value: 17.8
Collins is exactly the kind of player who triggers a second wave of transfers: managers notice the 8.0 form, then see the 1816 minutes and 17.8 value, and suddenly the “boring pick” becomes a team value hack.
He’s also not a dead threat profile for a defender (221.0 threat) — which matters because price rises accelerate when managers feel they’re buying both safety and upside.
GW22 takeaway: A classic “buy before the crowd” option — still low-owned, but the metrics look like they won’t stay hidden.
Declan Rice (£7.3m) — the premium midfielder in disguise
- •Selected by: 26.8%
- •Form: 6.3
- •Total points: 122
- •Goals/Assists: 4 / 7
- •Creativity: 580.7
- •ICT: 132.8
- •xA: 3.78
- •Value: 16.7
Rice’s appeal is simple: he’s producing like a top-tier mid on output and involvement. The 580.7 creativity plus 132.8 ICT points to repeatable returns, not a one-off purple patch.
Managers aren’t just buying points — they’re buying certainty. 1695 minutes also helps keep the transfer traffic consistent.
GW22 takeaway: A steady riser profile — high ownership, strong form, elite creativity. Expect continued demand.
Bruno Guimarães (£7.2m) — the all-action midfielder managers trust
- •Selected by: 21.8%
- •Form: 6.0
- •Total points: 117
- •Goals/Assists: 8 / 5
- •Influence: 585.0
- •Creativity: 491.6
- •ICT: 139.2
- •Value: 16.2
Bruno checks every “price-rise” box: strong ownership, strong recent output, and a monster 139.2 ICT. While his xG (3.88) suggests he’s scoring above expectation, the broader profile still screams involvement — and that keeps managers buying.
GW22 takeaway: Even if the goal rate cools, the all-round numbers are good enough to sustain interest.
Nordi Mukiele (£4.4m) — the budget enabler with elite value
- •Selected by: 9.8%
- •Form: 6.0
- •Total points: 92
- •Clean sheets: 6
- •Value: 20.9 (best value here)
- •Minutes: 1710
A £4.4m defender posting a 20.9 value is the kind of thing that fuels mass squad restructuring. Mukiele is a classic “enabler” rise: managers buy him to unlock upgrades elsewhere — and those transfers stack up fast.
GW22 takeaway: If the template shifts toward squeezing in more expensive attackers, this is the profile that rises again.
The Popular Picks Still Drawing Buyers (But Watch the Temperature)
Ollie Watkins (£8.8m) — demand driven by threat
- •Selected by: 13.8%
- •Form: 6.0
- •Goals: 7
- •Threat: 600.0
- •xG: 8.68
- •Value: 9.2
Watkins is being bought because the role is clear: 600 threat and 8.68 xG make him feel one haul away from turning into a runaway bandwagon. The caution flag is that value (9.2) is weaker than other risers here — meaning managers might jump off faster if returns stall.
GW22 takeaway: The numbers justify buying, but he’s less “team value friendly” than the midfield/defender picks above.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) — the budget forward surge
- •Selected by: 12.7%
- •Form: 6.8
- •Goals: 9
- •Threat: 573.0
- •xG: 7.95
- •Value: 14.8
At £6.0m, DCL is landing in the sweet spot: affordable, scoring, and carrying genuine shot volume (573 threat). His 14.8 value indicates managers aren’t just chasing — they’re buying efficiency.
GW22 takeaway: A strong second/third forward for managers prioritizing midfield spend.
Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (£6.7m) — reliable points, steady ownership pressure
- •Selected by: 31.7%
- •Form: 5.2
- •Total points: 112
- •Clean sheets: 9
- •xG: 1.56
- •Value: 16.7
Gabriel’s price momentum is often about safety: he’s heavily owned, he returns through clean sheets, and he’s not toothless on set pieces (1.56 xG, 158 threat). That blend keeps him in “set and forget” territory for many squads — and stable demand fuels price protection.
GW22 takeaway: Not flashy, but market dynamics favor him: high ownership + consistent points = slow upward pressure.
The One to Monitor for a Fall: High Cost, Low Form, and a Tricky Value Story
Anthony Gordon (£7.5m) — the warning light
- •Selected by: 6.0%
- •Form: 3.5 (lowest in this list)
- •Total points: 50
- •Minutes: 999
- •xG/xA: 4.29 / 2.52
- •Value: 6.7
Gordon stands out because the price doesn’t match the output right now. A 3.5 form plus 6.7 value at £7.5m is exactly the profile that invites managers to redirect funds into the hotter names above.
What makes him especially fall-prone is the combination of:
- •Lower ownership (6.0%) — meaning less “protection” from mass holders
- •High cost — easier to fund upgrades elsewhere by selling
- •Underwhelming returns for price — the market usually corrects this
GW22 takeaway: He’s a prime candidate to be sold for a Rice/Bruno-type midfielder — and those transfer patterns often precede a drop.
Rapid-Fire GW22 Price Predictions
- •Most likely to keep rising: Igor Thiago (34.6% owned + elite threat/xG)
- •Best value-driven riser: Mukiele (20.9 value at £4.4m)
- •The “late bandwagon” defender: Collins (8.0 form, 17.8 value, low ownership)
- •Midfield magnets: Rice and Bruno (elite creativity/ICT driving sustained transfers)
- •Fall risk to watch: Gordon (3.5 form, 6.7 value, premium price)
Conclusion: GW22 Is a Team Value Week
Gameweek 22 feels like a classic team value swing: the market is rewarding managers who buy high minutes + strong form + elite value, and punishing premium-priced assets with weaker returns.
If you’re playing the transfer deadline smart, prioritize the players whose demand is backed by repeatable metrics — Thiago’s threat, Rice/Bruno’s creativity and ICT, and the budget value engines like Mukiele and Collins. That’s how squads climb both the ranks and the price ladder.