GW22 Unlucky Finishers: Big Threat, Bigger xG… But the Goals Haven’t Arrived (Yet)

Introduction

Gameweek 22 is the perfect time to hunt under-performers — players whose underlying numbers say they should have more returns. Using the data below, we’re focusing on a very specific (and often profitable) profile: high Threat and/or strong xG, but low actual goals.

These are the players who keep getting chances… but haven’t converted them into FPL points yet.

The GW22 “Unlucky Finishers” Shortlist (High Threat/xG, Low Goals)

Jurriën Timber — 2 goals from 4.06 xG (Defender)

Timber jumps off the page as a defender posting attacker-like numbers.

•Goals: 2
•xG: 4.06
•Threat: 315.0
•Minutes: 1639
•Total points: 104
•Form: 4.3
•Selected by: 27.5%

Why it matters for GW22:

•He’s already delivering, but the data suggests there’s still unfinished upside in his goal output.
•With Threat (315.0) and xG (4.06), Timber profiles like a defender who’s repeatedly getting into high-value positions.

FPL takeaway: If you’re buying now, you’re not chasing a fluke — you’re backing a player whose goal count is lagging behind his chances.

Riccardo Calafiori — 1 goal from 2.49 xG (Defender)

Calafiori’s attacking output hasn’t matched the quality of chances he’s found.

•Goals: 1
•xG: 2.49
•Threat: 219.0
•Minutes: 1256
•Total points: 77
•Status: i (Muscle injury – Unknown return date)

Why it matters for GW22:

•On pure numbers, he’s a classic “about to pop” candidate: good xG + strong Threat.
•The problem is availability: the data clearly flags injury with unknown return.

FPL takeaway: A strong watchlist name rather than a GW22 buy. If/when fit, the underlying suggests he can outscore his current goal tally.

Gabriel Martinelli Silva — 1 goal from 1.99 xG (Midfielder)

Martinelli is finding chances but hasn’t turned them into goals.

•Goals: 1
•xG: 1.99
•Threat: 172.0
•Minutes: 500
•Total points: 28
•Form: 1.2
•Selected by: 0.8%

Why it matters for GW22:

•The Threat (172.0) in limited minutes hints he’s still getting into dangerous areas.
•With xG nearly double his goal count, he fits the “unlucky finisher” label.

FPL takeaway: A high-variance punt profile: the underlying says goals are plausible, but his current output and form are subdued.

Viktor Gyökeres — 5 goals from 6.27 xG (Forward)

Gyökeres is generating forward-level volume and quality — and still hasn’t fully been rewarded.

•Goals: 5
•xG: 6.27
•Threat: 430.0
•Minutes: 1289
•Total points: 54
•Form: 2.5
•Selected by: 9.4%
•Cost: 8.7

Why it matters for GW22:

•Threat (430.0) is elite in this dataset — the chances are clearly there.
•Even with 5 goals, he’s still running below expectation versus 6.27 xG.

FPL takeaway: If you’re choosing a forward based on “who is most likely to keep getting chances,” Gyökeres has the strongest case here.

Quick GW22 Decision Guide

If you’re making moves this week, here’s the cleanest way to use the data:

•Best all-round target: Jurriën Timber (strong points base + xG/Threat says more is possible)
•Best pure chance volume: Viktor Gyökeres (430.0 Threat is the headline)
•Injury-shaped watchlist: Riccardo Calafiori (great numbers, but unknown return date)
•Differential punt (low ownership): Gabriel Martinelli Silva (0.8% selected, but xG says he could spike)

Conclusion

Gameweek 22 is where smart FPL managers separate “recent points” from “repeatable process.” The numbers here point to a simple theme: Threat and xG are showing us players getting chances — but not getting goals.

If you want a data-led edge this week, back the players whose opportunity is already there. The finishing can swing quickly — and when it does, these are the profiles that tend to benefit first.