GW22 Unlucky Finishers: Big Threat, Bigger xG… But the Goals Haven’t Arrived (Yet)

Introduction

Gameweek 22 is the perfect time to hunt under-performers — players whose underlying numbers say they *should* have more returns. Using the data below, we’re focusing on a very specific (and often profitable) profile: high Threat and/or strong xG, but low actual goals.

These are the players who keep getting chances… but haven’t converted them into FPL points *yet*.

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The GW22 “Unlucky Finishers” Shortlist (High Threat/xG, Low Goals)

Jurriën Timber — 2 goals from 4.06 xG (Defender)

Timber jumps off the page as a defender posting attacker-like numbers.

•Goals: 2

•xG: 4.06

•Threat: 315.0

•Minutes: 1639

•Total points: 104

•Form: 4.3

•Selected by: 27.5%

Why it matters for GW22:

•He’s already delivering, but the data suggests there’s still unfinished upside in his goal output.

•With Threat (315.0) and xG (4.06), Timber profiles like a defender who’s repeatedly getting into high-value positions.

FPL takeaway: If you’re buying now, you’re not chasing a fluke — you’re backing a player whose goal count is lagging behind his chances.

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Riccardo Calafiori — 1 goal from 2.49 xG (Defender)

Calafiori’s attacking output hasn’t matched the quality of chances he’s found.

•Goals: 1

•xG: 2.49

•Threat: 219.0

•Minutes: 1256

•Total points: 77

•Status: i (Muscle injury – Unknown return date)

Why it matters for GW22:

•On pure numbers, he’s a classic “about to pop” candidate: good xG + strong Threat.

•The problem is availability: the data clearly flags injury with unknown return.

FPL takeaway: A strong watchlist name rather than a GW22 buy. If/when fit, the underlying suggests he can outscore his current goal tally.

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Gabriel Martinelli Silva — 1 goal from 1.99 xG (Midfielder)

Martinelli is finding chances but hasn’t turned them into goals.

•Goals: 1

•xG: 1.99

•Threat: 172.0

•Minutes: 500

•Total points: 28

•Form: 1.2

•Selected by: 0.8%

Why it matters for GW22:

•The Threat (172.0) in limited minutes hints he’s still getting into dangerous areas.

•With xG nearly double his goal count, he fits the “unlucky finisher” label.

FPL takeaway: A high-variance punt profile: the underlying says goals are plausible, but his current output and form are subdued.

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Viktor Gyökeres — 5 goals from 6.27 xG (Forward)

Gyökeres is generating forward-level volume and quality — and still hasn’t fully been rewarded.

•Goals: 5

•xG: 6.27

•Threat: 430.0

•Minutes: 1289

•Total points: 54

•Form: 2.5

•Selected by: 9.4%

•Cost: 8.7

Why it matters for GW22:

•Threat (430.0) is elite in this dataset — the chances are clearly there.

•Even with 5 goals, he’s still running below expectation versus 6.27 xG.

FPL takeaway: If you’re choosing a forward based on “who is most likely to keep getting chances,” Gyökeres has the strongest case here.

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Quick GW22 Decision Guide

If you’re making moves this week, here’s the cleanest way to use the data:

•Best all-round target: Jurriën Timber (strong points base + xG/Threat says more is possible)

•Best pure chance volume: Viktor Gyökeres (430.0 Threat is the headline)

•Injury-shaped watchlist: Riccardo Calafiori (great numbers, but unknown return date)

•Differential punt (low ownership): Gabriel Martinelli Silva (0.8% selected, but xG says he could spike)

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Conclusion

Gameweek 22 is where smart FPL managers separate “recent points” from “repeatable process.” The numbers here point to a simple theme: Threat and xG are showing us players getting chances — but not getting goals.

If you want a data-led edge this week, back the players whose opportunity is already there. The finishing can swing quickly — and when it does, these are the profiles that tend to benefit first.