GW22 Transfer Deadline: Thiago’s Stampede, Collins’ Surge & the Quiet Arsenal Double-Rise

Transfer Deadline (GW22): Who’s moving the market—and why?

Gameweek 22 is shaping up like a classic FPL price-change pressure cooker: a high-owned striker pulling managers in bulk, a value defender suddenly becoming fashionable, and a couple of reliable midfield/defence staples getting nudged upward by steady points and strong underlying numbers.

Below is the GW22 market watch using the latest risers/fallers data—who looks most likely to rise, who could stall, and where the crowd might be wrong.

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📈 The likely risers: where the transfers are flowing

Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues (£7.1, FWD) — the mass-buy catalyst

•Selected by: 33.0%

•Total points: 120

•Form: 6.7

•Output: 16 goals (1752 minutes)

•Underlying threat: Threat 747.0, ICT 161.8

•xG/xA: xG 12.33, xA 0.86

•GW22 price movement: +0.1 (cost_change_event: 1)

Why managers are jumping on him:

•He’s delivering the one thing that reliably fuels price rises: goals at volume. 16 goals plus elite attacking indicators (Threat 747) makes him an obvious transfer magnet.

•His xG (12.33) supports that this isn’t pure luck, even if he’s currently outperforming it—he’s still getting high-quality chances.

Transfer deadline verdict: If you don’t own him, this is exactly the profile that keeps climbing during a busy week. The market is treating him like a cornerstone forward, not a punt.

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Nathan Collins (£5.0, DEF) — the value defender with unexpected bite

•Selected by: 2.6% (low ownership = room to grow fast)

•Total points: 87

•Form: 7.7 (standout)

•Minutes: 1816 (nailed)

•Attacking indicators: Threat 221.0, xG 1.42, xA 0.86

•GW22 price movement: +0.1

Why managers are jumping on him:

•The 7.7 form is the sort of short-term spike that sparks bandwagons.

•He’s not just a clean-sheet play: the threat/xG suggests a defender who can nick returns.

Transfer deadline verdict: Collins looks like the classic GW22 enabler that turns into a mini-rush—especially because so few managers own him right now.

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Declan Rice (£7.3, MID) — steady points, elite creativity, quiet price momentum

•Selected by: 25.7%

•Total points: 119

•Form: 5.8

•Output: 4 goals, 7 assists

•Creativity: 551.9 (huge)

•ICT: 127.4

•xG/xA: xG 2.59, xA 3.63

•GW22 price movement: +0.1

Why managers are jumping on him:

•The combination of assists (7) and top-tier creative numbers (Creativity 551.9) makes him feel “safe” in midfield.

•With strong minutes (1605) and consistent returns, he’s a classic set-and-forget-ish buy for managers tightening squads.

Transfer deadline verdict: Rice isn’t flashy, but he’s the type who rises because managers want reliability—especially when chasing team value.

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Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães (£6.7, DEF) — points, clean sheets, and just enough goal threat

•Selected by: 30.2%

•Total points: 106

•Defensive base: 8 clean sheets

•Added upside: 3 goals, 2 assists

•xG/xA: xG 1.42, xA 0.71

•GW22 price movement: +0.1

Why managers are jumping on him:

•Clean sheets plus set-piece danger is the perfect FPL defender cocktail.

•With 30% ownership, even a moderate wave of buys can keep him moving.

Transfer deadline verdict: Gabriel’s rise feels like the market rewarding a defender who offers both base points and spikes.

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Micky van de Ven (£4.6, DEF) — the budget defender with elite value-season

•Selected by: 27.9%

•Total points: 89

•Value season: 19.3 (best in the dataset)

•Minutes: 1789

•Bonus upside: 3 goals

•GW22 price movement: +0.1

Why managers are jumping on him:

•At £4.6 with that value season (19.3), he screams efficiency.

•Nearly ever-present minutes + surprise goal threat makes him the archetype of a price-climbing defender.

Transfer deadline verdict: This is the kind of pick managers buy to fund premiums, and those always attract steady transfers.

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Bruno Guimarães Rodriguez Moura (£7.2, MID) — premium-ish output without premium pricing

•Selected by: 20.4%

•Total points: 117

•Output: 8 goals, 5 assists

•Threat: 315.0

•ICT: 139.3

•xG/xA: xG 3.88, xA 2.51

•GW22 price movement: +0.1

Why managers are jumping on him:

•Midfielders with double-digit goal contributions pull in transfers quickly.

•His threat and ICT show he’s not surviving on randomness—he’s involved.

Transfer deadline verdict: Bruno looks like a value alternative for managers wanting points without going fully premium, which can keep his price ticking upward.

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📉 Who could fall (or at least lose momentum)

The dataset doesn’t show any explicit cost_change_event: -1 players, but there are clear candidates to stall or become sell targets.

Anthony Gordon (£7.5, MID) — big underlying numbers, small actual points

•Selected by: 6.1%

•Total points: 50

•Form: 3.5

•xG/xA: xG 4.30, xA 2.52

•Actual output: 2 goals, 3 assists

•GW22 price movement: +0.1 (already rose)

Why he’s risky for your team value:

•The underlying data is encouraging, but managers often react to the headline: 50 points and 3.5 form.

•If the next returns don’t land quickly, he’s the type that gets moved on—especially at £7.5.

Transfer deadline verdict: Gordon is a volatile hold. The market has pushed him up, but he’s also the one most likely to see sentiment flip if managers chase immediate points.

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🧊 Dead assets to ignore for market value

Arsenal goalkeepers: Kepa (£4.1), Karl Hein (£4.0), Tommy Setford (£3.9)

•All three show 0 points, 0 minutes, 0.0 form.

•Hein is flagged unavailable with news: “Has joined Werder Bremen on loan for the rest of the season.”

Transfer deadline verdict: These are not team-value plays right now—no minutes means no points, and no points means no sustained demand.

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GW22 Transfer Deadline takeaways (quick hits)

•Most likely to keep rising: Igor Thiago — massive ownership and elite Threat/ICT.

•Best value-driven riser: van de Ven — top value season (19.3) at £4.6.

•Bandwagon potential: Nathan Collins — low ownership + elite form.

•Steady, sensible climbs: Rice and Gabriel — strong totals + consistent minutes.

•The delicate one: Gordon — good xG/xA, but output and form could trigger sells.

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Conclusion: Build value, but follow the right crowds

In GW22, the market is rewarding minutes + points + obvious narrative. Thiago is the headline act, Collins is the form-fueled sleeper, and the likes of Rice, Gabriel, van de Ven, and Bruno are climbing because they blend consistency with enough upside to keep transfers flowing.

If you’re playing the team value game this week, the simplest rule applies: buy into proven demand (Thiago/van de Ven), and be cautious with players whose points haven’t matched their promise (Gordon).